1. Towards a global data set on trade in services by mode of supply
A project of WTO funded by EU
(Team: Lucian Cernat, Barbara d’Andrea, Antonella Liberatore, Andreas Maurer, Steen Wettstein)
Trade Policy, Inclusiveness and the Rise of the Service Economy
25-26 April, 2018
WTO, Geneva, Switzerland
© WTO/OMC

2. WTO-UNCTAD-ITC “Geneva datasets” 2005-2016 2017 A ANNUAL QUARTERLY
2005Q1-2017Q4
MONTHLY
2006m1-2018m2
200+ reporters
detailed sectoral breakdown
bilateral statistics where available
world estimates and regional aggregations
150+ reporters
broken down by main service sector
world estimates and main regional aggregations
compiled by WTO only
30+ reporters
total commercial services
2017 A
Statistical database
Bulk download of detailed annual data
Short term statistics
World Trade Statistical Review 2017
Trade Profiles 2017
200+ reporters
world estimates and regional aggregations for GRS, TP, TV, OCS

3. WTO-OECD Trade in Services Bilateral Balanced Trade in Services (BaTiS)
Experimental dataset for bilateral trade in services by main service sector and for
Trade in Services
by mode of supply
(TISMoS)
Funding by the EU
Endorsed by CBFA
Dec
Dec 2018
Develop and maintain an experimental dataset by mode of supply
59 services sectors
All 4 modes covered

4. Main steps to build OECD-WTO BaTis
Data collection
Data cleaning & preparation
Data estimation
Additional national data, back-casting, forecasting, interpolations, derivations, integration of EBOPS2010 data, gravity-model based estimates
Trade balancing
Symmetry-index weighted average
Conversion to CPA
Country-specific conversions of EBOPS to CPA using correspondence tables, SUT information and STEC (next steps)

5. Balanced exports of total commercial services by region,
% shares in world total, 2012
Europe
North America
CIS
Middle East
Africa
C&S
America
Asia
Rest of the world
29.2
5.7
1.7
1.6
1.4
5.6
0.5
6.5
4.2
0.3
0.8
0.7
1.8
4.9
0.2
1.0
0.1
0.0
0.4
1.1
0.6
0.9
3.7
12.0
Source: OECD-WTO BaTiS dataset
Available on OECD and WTO website…for WTO…see Statistics on trade in commercial services…annual trade in services…bulk download of trade data sets…in csv format !!!

7. Plan 2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 & Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Fix reported data
Previous work Q2
OECD WPTGS
First allocation by MoS
Q3 & Q4
Include comments
Add activity-based FDI/FATS
2017 Q1
2nd allocation Q2
2nd allocation and validation of the results Q3
Explore results Q4
2018
Expert meeting Revise, update methodology

8. Methodology Using reported data in BOP and FATS sales
Impute missing cells with best estimates
System of flags to assess reliability of estimates
Apply the simplified approach as a 1st step
estimates by country, sector, flow, year, mode
Refine estimates based on additional information and comments of experts

9. Expert meeting in October 2017
List of comments and possible improvements
What has been done?
Changes in the structure of the BOP
Changes in the estimation procedure of the BOP
FATS regressions
Validation of the results
What has not been done yet?
Estimation and remove the goods in the BOP classification
Include country specific distribution

12. How to estimate mode 3?
FATS variable sales (and output) to approximate GATS mode 3
Caveats
Complete FATS sales dataset using :
Mirror values and zero derivations
back/forecasting techniques to fill time series
Using PPML regressions (Lakatos &Fukui 2012)
Quadratic optimization to ensure consistency of the dataset
Validation of the results

13. ISIC – EBOPS correspondence table
WTO code
Description
EBOPS
EBOPS description
Share
NACE2
TSER
TOTAL SERVICES S
Services
100
G-S_X_O
TPST
Transport and Storage SC
Transport H
FOOD
Accommodation and food services SD
Travel I
INFCOM
Information and Communication SI
Tel. , computer, and information services J
FIN
Insurance &pension funding, except … SF
Insurance and pension services 60 K
Activities aux. to financial intermediation SG
Financial services 40
REA
Real estate activities L
PROF
Prof., scientific and technical activities SJ
Other business services M
EDUC
Education
P85 SK
Personal, cultural, and recreational services
HEALTH
Health and social work Q
ARTS
Arts, entertainment and recreation R
OSERA
Other service activities
ADMIN
Administrative and support activities 70 N
Tel., computer, and information services 30

14. Supply of Services by Modes Statistical Approximation, 2011
Mode of Supply
Estimated share
(before)
1- cross border supply
30%
2 - consumption abroad
10%
3 - commercial presence
55%
4 - presence of natural persons
<5%
Only M1, M2 and M4
67%
22%
11%
New estimates
(after)
27%
16%
52%
4.8%
Only M1, M2 and M4
57%
33%
10% 14 14

15. Australia, Experimental Data

16. Colombia, Experimental Data

17. Next steps Complete 2005 – 2016 data set √
Apply as a first simplified approach √
Gather case studies/pilot projects √
Develop approach to estimate mode 3 (FDI/FATS) √
Define typology for case studies/pilot projects
Complete refining the experimental data set
Expert meeting (October 2018)
Refine data set and explore links with e.g. BaTIS
Collaborative effort!!!

18. Please send email to statistics@wto.org
How to disseminate?
Make clear that it is modular: reported, imputed, and estimated
Become a hub for statistics on MoS and develop data set into an international benchmark
Vision: link with BATIS
Q&A