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Quantifying errors in model chemical forecasts during TRACE-P I

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Presentation on theme: "Quantifying errors in model chemical forecasts during TRACE-P I"— Presentation transcript:

1 Quantifying errors in model chemical forecasts during TRACE-P I
Quantifying errors in model chemical forecasts during TRACE-P I. Bey Swiss Federal Institute of Technology D. J. Jacob, R. M. Yantosca, H. Liu Harvard University G. W. Sachse NASA LaRC

2 GEOS-CHEM CHEMICAL FORECASTING IN TRACE-P
5-day GEOS-3 forecast fields from DAO (2ox2.5o, 2x/day) and daily assimilated fields (1ox1o) were used to drive off-line CO simulation 0Z: start of forecast 14Z: forecast available from DAO DAY 16Z: GEOS-CHEM forecast product sent to TRACE-P team GEOS-CHEM update of CO initial condions using assimilated GEOS fields GEOS-CHEM forecast

3 SUCCESS OF FORECAST AND ASSIMILATED GEOS FIELDS IN REPRODUCING VARIANCE OF OBSERVED CO DURING TRACE-P Forecast Assimilation

4 SMEARING AND DISPLACEMENT ERRORS IN GEOS-CHEM FORECASTS DURING TRACE-P
R2 statistics for forecasts vs. observations DISPLACEMENT ERROR SMEARING ERROR downward displacement upward displacement Increasing vertical smearing Forecast altitude

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