1. Regional Overview and Outlook 2018
10/11/17
Regional Overview and Outlook 2018
Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D.
Economist & Executive Director of Research
Beacon Economics, LLC
Thank you for joining me today.
PIMCO’s time-tested investment process combines top down macro-economic analysis with bottom-up security selection.
That macro-economic view is developed at the firm’s annual Secular Forum.
I’d like to spend a few minutes explaining to what the Forum is and then share with you the findings from this year’s meeting and the implications for your clients.
SoCal Visitors Industry Outlook th Annual Conference October 20, 2017

2. Outline U.S./CA Economy So Cal Economy So Cal Visitors Industry
Conclusion/Looking Ahead

3. US/CA Economy

4. CA Labor Market at Full Employment
10/11/17
CA Labor Market at Full Employment
Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted
*UPDATED
9/20/17
Beacon Economics/KLEINHENZ

5. CA Adding Jobs Faster than U.S.
10/11/17
CA Adding Jobs Faster than U.S.
YTY % change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted
Source: ChrisbookNew, tab “National” and tab “Emp”
May need to manually compute YoY % Change
Updated: 9/20/17

6. GDP ~2%, Consumer Exp Steady
10/11/17
GDP ~2%, Consumer Exp Steady
Contributions to Change in GDP
2015
2016
2017Q2
GDP % Chg
2.9
1.5
3.1
Contributions in %
Consumer
2.5
1.9
2.2
Investment
0.9
-0.3
0.6
Net exports
-0.7
-0.2
0.2
Government
0.1
0.0
Chart – updated 10/10/17
Table – Updated 10/10/17
Source: GDP Chart: BEA Table

7. Gross State Product: YTY % Changes CA Among Fastest Growing States
10/11/17
Gross State Product: YTY % Changes CA Among Fastest Growing States
Clarissa: Updated

8. Inflation Historically Low But Rising
10/11/17
Inflation Historically Low But Rising
Rak 9/25/17 CPI Headline RAte
Kyser Center for Economic Research

9. Southern California Outlook
10/11/17
Southern California Outlook

10. Overall Job Growth Slowing…
10/11/17
Overall Job Growth Slowing…
Updated 9/20/17

11. …and Across Industries (LA County Shown)

12. Southern California Visitor/Hospitality Industry
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Southern California Visitor/Hospitality Industry

13. Hospitality-Leading Industry Cluster
Traded Industry Clusters-Los Angeles County: US Rank and Employment
Visitor Industry…
Among the top clusters in nation!!
LA #3 in U.S.
OC #5 “
SD #6 “
IE #18 “

14. Leisure & Hospitality 2017 YTD: Aug ’17 IE: +4.4% LA: +2.1% OC: +1.5%
10/11/17
Leisure & Hospitality
2017 YTD: Aug ’17
IE: +4.4%
LA: +2.1%
OC: +1.5%
VN: +4.3%

15. Job Opening Rates by Industry, US

16. Occupancy Rates Leveling Out

17. Hotel Picture Positive

18. Taxable Receipts in CA- Hotels and Food

19. Airport Traffic Trending Higher
Total Airport Traffic by County
Region
Traffic (June 2017)
1-year % change
3-year % change
Los Angeles County
7,663,678
4.5
18.2
Orange County
860,713
-1.7
7.9
San Diego County
1,881,099
11.9
20.2

20. Conclusion

21. 2018 Outlook
Now at full-employment locally, statewide & nationally --- positions harder to fill
US & CA growth steady – NO RECESSION
Leading industries: health care, construction, leisure and hospitality, trans/warehousing, pro/sci/tech
2018 Visitor Industry Outlook – steady improvement

22. 10/11/17
Thank You!
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