1. Fredrik Wulff Systems Ecology Stockholm University, Sweden
Scientific Support for the Management of Transboundary Marine Eutrophication
Fredrik Wulff
Systems Ecology
Stockholm University, Sweden

3. Management objective
“a healthy Baltic Sea environment with diverse biological components functioning in balance, resulting in a good ecological status and supporting a wide range of sustainable human economic and social activities”
(HELCOM’s strategic vision)

4. The role of scientific decision support
There is a mismatch between the kind of ecosystem people want and what is actually attainable
What is attainable is also dependent on costs and how long we are willing to wait
Science can describe these choices and help us set realistic environmental goals what are actually attainable
There is a large risk to implement inefficient and expensive measures – science can help us avoid this

5. The ultimate goal for linking science & management
The cost for improvements in the Baltic will follow the upper curve without a good understanding of cost effective measures.
With good science, we will provide options to reduce cost to the lower curve.

6. MARE MArine Research on Eutrophication – A Scientific Base for Cost-effective Measures for the Baltic Sea.
MARE is designed to develop a scientific base for cost-effective measures against eutrophication.
The program link information about physical transports, biogeochemical processes, ecological properties, economic evaluations and costs for nutrient reductions.
It is developed in close collaboration with other scientists and environmental managers into a Decision Support System, a tool-chest, that can be used to evaluate targets in terms of states of the Baltic in relation to costs for different management options.
11/20/2018
Fred Wulff

7. Basic Modules (Changing..)
NUTRIENT MODEL
NUTRIENT BUDGETS
LOAD
FISH
WEB
MODEL
RESULTS
EMEP
LOAD
COST CALCULATIONS

9. 16 Abatement costs and measures in 23 sub-drainage basins
Agriculture - land use & application changes
Sewage treatment
Industry
Traffic

10. +3 m in GoF but + 4.7 in B proper!

11. Bluegreens in GF reduced 60%!

14. Scenarios Pristine conditions Contemporary conditions
Riverine DIN & DIP loads into the Baltic Sea eastwards off the Danish Straits about a hundred years ago have been taken from a recent publication (Schernewski & Neumann, 2004; Table 1). Inputs into Danish Straits and Kattegat are assumed to be 25% of contemporary loads. To calculate organic loads, we assume that the proportions between Labile Organic and Inorganic nutrient as well as the input of Refractory Organic nutrient were the same as to day.
Coastal point sources are kept the same as contemporary.
N atmospheric deposition is assumed 10% of contemporary. P deposition is assumed to be 1% of molar N deposition.
Contemporary conditions
Riverine and coastal point sources are taken from HELCOM pollution load estimates for 2000.
Atmospheric DIN loads are from EMEP for Organic N loads are assumed to be 20% of DIN. DIP loads assumed to be 15 Kg km-2yr-1 and no organic loads.
Advective inputs from Skagerrak to Kattegat are assumed equal in both the pristine and contemporary state

15. Flows:(103 tons yr-1) Concentrations: (µmol) Transparency: (meters)
Contemporary N budget BB
70+14
Flows:(103 tons yr-1) Concentrations: (µmol) Transparency: (meters)
25.6
5.4 26 46
104 BS
79+43
19.2
5.6
106
66+27
38+31
258
332
591 KT
314 DS
347 BP GF
171
102+19
Skagerrak
17.8
7.8
18.5
9.2
18.3
9.5
22.1
5.7
431
171
218
111 76 55
795 68 67 34 GR
70+13
28.2
3.8 54

16. Flows:(103 tons yr-1) Concentrations: (µmol) Transparency: (meters)
Pristine N budget BB
48+1
Flows:(103 tons yr-1) Concentrations: (µmol) Transparency: (meters)
18.5
7.1 11 37 75 BS
47+4
15.2
7.3
26+3
17+3 32
157+17
204
262
508 KT
246 DS
275 BP GF
131
61+2
Skagerrak
15.3
9.2
14.5 -
14.5
11.9
16.9 -
147
431
171 88 51 25
290 47 25 27 GR
34+1
19.7 - 15

17. Science can help to Define operational environmental targets
Show what is needed to reach such specific environmental targets
Describe the relative importance of various factors influencing pollution
Define how much can you improve the environment – by whom
Describe what are minimum cost/ or cost alternatives to reach a specific target

18. Science can not define What is a good Baltic sea
How much is it worth - What is good enough?
How long can we wait?
Which measures are political and socially acceptable
How to implement measures

19. The Last Two Years (05-06) A better drainage basin model
Linking fishery management with eutrophication
Demonstrate linkages between local and regional aspects
From steady state to time-dependent models (marine, drainage basins, economy)
Validation of DSS model with process-based models
Improvments through user interactions
’Institutionalization’ of NEST

20. ’Filosophical’ lessons
’Facts’ for decisions used by managers and scientists (natural and social) are different
Different level of tolerance for uncertainty
Fear of future funding by scientists
Define what we know more difficult that describe what we don’t know