1. RSA Insight Report: Supporting Slides
Glasgow City Deal
comprising East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Glasgow City, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire
Evidence Base Team
Glasgow

2. Contents Explanation of Thermometer Chart 1. The Glasgow City Deal
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by City Deal Region 2015
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA Local Authority 2015
Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base (2016)
Proportions of Businesses by Size Band (2016)
Business Births and Deaths per ( ) and Business survival index ( )
Resident and Workplace Based Earnings 2016 (Median)
Glasgow City Deal's local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1)
Deprivation Glasgow City Deal by SIMD (2016) Deciles1 1-10
Population projections change by age band 2014 – 2039
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Region
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority
School Leaver Destinations 2009/10 and 2015/16

3. 2. Demand for Glasgow City Deal
Total Employment Projections (jobs) ( )
Total Employment (jobs) Projections by Status and Gender
Glasgow City Deal Occupation Structure 2000 and 2017 (people 000s)
Total employment (people 000s) by occupation 2017 and 2027
Proportion of occupations at top middle and bottom of labour market 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (people 000s) Glasgow City Deal
Proportion of total requirement at top middle and bottom of labour market
Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector 2017 and 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs 000s) Glasgow City Deal
Total employment (jobs 000s) by key sector 2017 and 2027
Total Employment by qualification (000s) Glasgow City Deal 2017 and 2027
Total Requirement by qualification (people 000s) Glasgow City Deal

4. Explanation of thermometer/bullet chart
Although most people are familiar with a grouped bar chart:...
... a thermometer (or bullet) chart shows both bars in one, enabling more space to be used, which is more practical when dealing with more cluttered charts, showing 2 digit SIC and SOC for example.
The figures are the ‘thermometer’ and the 2027 figures act as the ‘mercury’. This enables a comparison to be made as to whether there has been a rise or fall compared with the 2017 baseline. And example is given below:
2027 figures less than 2017
2016 figure
2017
2024 figure
2027 figures more than 2017
2027

5. 1. The Glasgow City Deal

6. Figure 2.1: Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by City Deal Region 2015
High GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, Low Productivity
High GVA, Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

7. Figure 2.2: Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA Local Authority, 2015
High GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.
High GVA, Low Productivity

8. Table 2.1: Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base (2016)
Glasgow
East Dunbarton-shire
East Renfrew-shire
Glasgow City
Inver-clyde
North Lanark-shire
Renfrew-shire
South Lanark-shire
West Dunbarton-shire
Scotland
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 2%
0.2% 3% 7%
10%
Production 6% 5% 4% 8% 9%
Construction
12%
13%
11%
16%
14%
Motor trades
Wholesale
Retail
Transport & storage
Accommodation & food services
Information & communication
Financial & insurance 1%
Property
Professional, scientific & technical
18%
24%
23%
19%
21%
15%
Business admin & support
Public admin. & defence
<1% 0%
Education
Health
Arts, entertainment, recreation, other
Total
46,660
2,975
2,605
17,300
1,665
7,170
4,460
8,705
1,780
171,905
Source: UK Business Counts

9. Table 2.2: Proportions of businesses by size band 2016
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrew-shire
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
North Lanark-shire
Renfrew-shire
South Lanark-shire
West Dunbartonshire
Glasgow City Deal
Scotland
0-9
91%
84%
88%
87%
86%
10-49 8%
13% 9%
10%
11%
12%
50-249 1% 2%
250+
<1%
Source: UK Business Counts

10. Figure 2.3 Business births and deaths per population ( ) and Business Survival Index ( )
Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-Year Population Estimates
Note: data for Business Survival Rates only available for in Evidence Base.

11. Table 2.3: Resident and workplace based earnings 2016 (Median)
Area
Resident Earnings
Workplace Earnings
Difference between weekly workplace and resident earnings
East Dunbartonshire
£512
£329
£182
East Renfrewshire
£538
£345
£193
Glasgow City
£425
£466
-£41
Inverclyde
£402
£362
£40
North Lanarkshire
£441
£434 £7
Renfrewshire
£448
£409
£39
South Lanarkshire
£442
£447
-£5
West Dunbartonshire
£420
-£14
Scottish Average
£432 £2
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Figures based on weekly pay of all workers.

12. Table 2.4: Glasgow City Deal local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1)
SOC 1-3
SOC 4-6
SOC 7-9
East Dunbartonshire
57%
26%
17%
East Renfrewshire
25%
18%
Glasgow
49%
Inverclyde
47%
29%
24%
North Lanarkshire
42%
30%
27%
Renfrewshire
50%
21%
South Lanarkshire
28%
23%
West Dunbartonshire
38%
35%
Source: Origin Destination statistics by Local Authority, open access (WB07BUK_la), UK Data Service
Note: denominator = total trips out of the local authority
1 See SOC Codes for Glasgow City Deal here:

13. Figure 2.5: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Region
High Unemployment, High Inactivity
Low Unemployment, High Inactivity
High Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based)
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

14. Figure 2.5: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority
High Unemployment, High Inactivity
Low Unemployment, High Inactivity
High Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based)
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

15. Figure 2.6: Deprivation in Glasgow City Deal by SIMD (2016), Deciles2 1-10
Source: Scottish Government, 2016
2 See SIMD interactive map here:

16. Table 2.5: Population projections, change by age band, 2014 – 2039
0 -15
16-29
30-49
50-64
65-74
75+
Total
Glasgow City Deal
-2%
-12%
-6%
-8%
32%
77% 3%
East Dunbartonshire 4%
-10%
-3%
-17%
14%
95% 6%
East Renfrewshire 9%
21%
89%
13%
Glasgow City
42%
54% 7%
Inverclyde
-16%
-26%
-24%
-30%
68%
North Lanarkshire
-9%
-15%
37%
87%
-0.4%
Renfrewshire
26%
79%
0.3%
South Lanarkshire
-11%
33%
West Dunbartonshire
-19%
-20%
-21%
27%
75%
-7%
Scotland 1%
85%
Source: National Records of Scotland

17. Table 2.5: School Leavers’ Destinations, 2009/10 and 2015/16
Glasgow City Deal
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
North Lanarkshire
Renfrewshire
South Lanarkshire
West Dunbartonshire
Higher education (%)
2009/10
36%
52%
58%
27%
33%
32%
38%
34%
2015/16
39%
57%
61%
31%
Change 3% 6% 4% 1% 2%
Further education (%)
23%
17%
14%
25%
30%
20%
24%
21%
13%
22%
-2%
-3%
-1%
-6%
-4%
Employment (%)
19%
28% 8% 7% 9%
Unemployed
15% 5%
11%
-7%
-5%
Unemployment Seeking and Unemployment Not Seeking.
Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset

18. 2. Demand for Skills in the Glasgow City Deal

19. Figure 3.1: Total Employment Projections (jobs), 2000-2027
Source: Oxford Economics

20. Figure 3.2: Total Employment (jobs) projections, 2000-2027 by status and gender  
Source: Oxford Economics

21. Figure 3.3: Glasgow City Deal Occupational Structure, 2000 and 2017 (people, 000s)
Source: Oxford Economics

22. Figure 3.4: Total employment (people 000s) by occupation, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

23. Glasgow City Region City Deal
Table 3.1: Proportion of occupations at top, middle and bottom of labour market, 2027
Glasgow City Region City Deal
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
North Lanarkshire
Renfrewshire
South Lanarkshire
West Dunbartonshire
Higher Level
43%
46%
47%
48%
35%
34%
38%
41%
42%
Middle level jobs
30%
25%
32%
28%
31%
33%
Lower level jobs
27%
29%
21%
24%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

24. Table 3.2: Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (people 000s), Glasgow City Deal,
Occupation
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Managers, directors & senior officials
2.6
20.0
22.5
Professional occupations
4.9
90.8
95.8
Associate professional & technical occupations
3.0
34.7
37.7
Administrative & secretarial occupations
-1.1
35.2
34.2
Skilled trades occupations
3.1
24.7
27.8
Caring, leisure & other service occupations
4.1
28.9
33.1
Sales & customer service occupations
2.7
45.9
48.6
Process, plant & machine operatives
0.2
15.6
15.8
Elementary occupations
4.8
69.3
74.0
Total
24.2
365.2
389.4
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data.

25. Glasgow City Region City Deal
Table 3.3: Proportion of total requirement at top, middle and bottom of labour market,
Glasgow City Region City Deal
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
North Lanarkshire
Renfrewshire
South Lanarkshire
West Dunbartonshire
Higher level jobs
40%
42%
38%
45%
30%
31%
34%
36%
Middle level jobs
24%
22%
32%
25%
28%
23%
Lower level jobs
35%
47%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

26. Figure 3.5: Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

27. Table 3.4: Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Glasgow City Deal,
Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
-0.02
0.7
Mining and quarrying
-0.03
0.0
0.01
Manufacturing
-2.6
6.0
3.4
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning
-0.5
1.2
0.8
Water supply, sewerage, waste management
-0.3
4.4
4.1
Construction
3.9
9.4
13.4
Wholesale and retail trade
4.0
45.2
49.2
Transport and storage
15.0
15.8
Accommodation and food services
3.5
22.7
26.3
Information and communication
1.3
2.1
Financial and insurance activities
-0.4
0.9
0.5
Real estate activities
1.0
0.98
Professional, scientific and technical
6.5
7.0
Admin. and support services
11.7
48.2
59.9
Public admin. and defence
-3.0
12.5
9.5
Education
0.1
19.3
19.4
Human health and social work
27.3
31.4
Arts, entertainment and recreation
10.7
12.0
Other service activities
1.7
0.4
Total
33.1
225.3
258.4
Source: Oxford Economics

28. Figure 3.6: Total employment (jobs 000s), by key sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

29. Table 3.5 Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (jobs 000s), Glasgow City Deal,
Key Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Chemical sciences
-0.4
0.6
0.1
Creative industries
2.7
5.7
8.3
Construction
9.4
22.6
31.9
Energy
-1.1
5.2
4.1
Engineering
5.6
Food and drink
-1.3
7.7
6.5
Financial and business services
16.9
25.2
Health and social care
4.5
45.7
50.2
ICT/digital
1.6
1.3
2.9
Life sciences
0.7
Tourism
4.6
39.4
43.9
Total
27.9
151.2
179.1
Source: Oxford Economics

30. Figure 3.7: Employment by qualification (people, 000s), Glasgow City Deal, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

31. Table 3.6: Total Requirement by qualification (people, 000s), Glasgow City Deal, 2017-2027
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
SCQF
4.3
19.9
24.2
SCQF
17.4
161.7
179.1
SCQF 6
-1.0
54.1
53.1
SCQF 5
3.4
81.4
84.8
SCQF 1-4
-2.7
18.8
16.1
No Qualifications
2.8
29.3
32.1
Total
365.2
389.4
Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Figures for 2027 only