1.
Dendrochronology in Finland: Historical milestones and current activities
WorldDendro 2010 Rovaniemi, June 14, 2010 Kari Mielikäinen

2. Content of the presentation
History of Finnish dendrochronology (climatology)
Supra-long pine chronology of Finnish Lapland
Growth trends in Finnish (European) forests
Recent publications based on long chronologies
Some future forecasts

3. Total growth and removals in Finnish forests 1923 - 200520 40 60 80
100
1923
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Milj.m³
Growth
Removals
© Metla/Erkki Oksanen

4. Annual ring indices of Norway spruce in Southern Finland (Henttonen 1990)
Dashed line => June-July precipitatin included

5. The impact of N-fertilisation on the radial increment of Scots pine (Kukkola???)

6. Annual ring indices for Scots pine in Lapland (Hustich 1948)

7. Model for the cyclic variation of the climate 1180-1960 (Siren 1963)

8. The forecast for the future temperature of Lapland 1960 - 2060 (Siren 1963)
Tmax = year 2020

9. Collecting data for the longest pine chronology of Eurasia (Eronen 1979...)
© Mauri Timonen
A lake close to Kalmankaltio

10. The Supra-long pine (Pinus silvestris) chronology (5634 BC) for Finnish Lapland

11. Voi jäädä pois???Eljaksen julkaisusta jotakin?

12. The changes of the tree line based on the location of megafossils found in the lakes of Lapland north of the present tree line (Kultti et.al. 2006)

13. Impacts of air pollution on European forests
Situation in the 1980´s
Deposition of sulphur (SO2)  Acid rain
Deposition of nitrogen (traffic and agriculture)
Deposition of heavy metals
==> In spite of these facts (next two slides)
Pekka Nöjd /

14. Total growth and removals in Finnish forests 1923 - 200520 40 60 80
100
1923
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Milj.m³
Growth
Removals
© Metla/Erkki Oksanen

15. Increment and fellings in European forests
Gross annual increment
Net annual increment
Annual fellings
In exploitable forests (133 mill. ha in 1990), in forests available for wood supply 2000 (149 mill. ha in 2000)
Sources: years : Kuusela, K Forest Resources in Europe. European Forest Institute. Research Report 1.
year 2000: UN-ECE/FAO Forest Resources of Europe, CIS, North America, Australia, Japan and New Zealand.

16. LAUCHING OF A PROJECT BY METLA AND UNI FREIBURG IN 1992 ”GROWTH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN FORESTS”
“HAS FOREST (TREE) GROWTH IN EUROPE CHANGED IN A WAY, THAT CANNOT BE EXPLAINED BY CHANGES IN STAND STRUCTURE OR SILVICULTURE?”
Here: Growth trend = long-lasting deviation from expected growth (Tree age and stand density excluded)
==> 45 forest growth scientist from 12 countries

17. The residual of growth model against calendar year (experimental data Finland)
NO LONG-TERM TREND

18. Growth Trends in European Forests: Conclusions
Growth Trends in European Forests: Conclusions (Spiecker, Mielikäinen, Köhl & Skovsgaard 1996)

19. The decadal fluctuations in the timberline pine tree- ring index for the last 7640 years (FFT smoothed)

20. Recent studies based on long chronologies
Tähän joku kuva Maurilta?

21. Precipitation anomalies since AD 660 in Lapland (Helama et.al. 2009)
= Dark Ages Cold Period
= Little Ice Age
= Medieval Climate Anomaly

22. Drought synchrony during Medieval Climate Anomaly in four continents (Helama et.al. 2009)
Drought Area Index: Western USA
Extreme drought without El Nino flooding:Coastal Peru
Water level of Lake Naivasha in Kenya
Low-frequency component of European precipitation record (this study)

23. Climatic evolution in Lapland since AD 750 (Helama et.al. 2009)
Reconstructed temperature variability in annual, decadal and centennial scale
Medieval Warm Period (warmest 250 years), Little Ice Age (coldest 250 years) and the Twenteth Century Warming ( )

24. Thermohaline circulation of North Atlantic (solid line) compared with tree-ring based temperatures (Helama et.al. 2009)

25. Reconstructed temperatures (5500 BC - AD 2004) based on the supra-long pine chronology (Helama et.al. 2010)
Reconstructed temperatures in annual, decadal and multi-centurial scale
Multi-centurial component of reconstructed temperature variability and the Denton-Karlen coolings

26. Sunspot - climate associations for the latest 7500 years (Helama et.al. 2010)
Bimillenial scale prevailing until year 0 (lag 0)
Millenial scale prevails years (lag 70)

27. Forecasts for our future climate
Driver CO2
IPCC: Global warming => 2100
Driver "unknown" cyclicity
Siren 1963: Cooling => 1970
Warming => 2010
Cooling => 2060
Timonen 2006: Warming => 2010
Cooling => 2050
Driver Millenial activity of the Sun
Helama et.al. 2010: Lagged warming
All Drivers together WHO KNOWS?

28. Lapin "lätkämailoja" 1900 -luvulta