1. Knife Crime in Nottinghamshire
Performance & Intelligence Analysis Insight
Mark Dean
Head of Intelligence Analysis

2. Aim for the Presentation
Performance Insight
National perspective relating to Serious Violence & Knife Crime, and how Nottinghamshire compares
Intelligence Analysis Insight
Drill into some of the key concerns, challenges and opportunities facing the police and local partners regarding Knife Crime

3. a National Perspective National Picture Local Global Picture*
National
Picture
Local
Global Picture*
Increase in Knife Crime evident a
N/A
Increase in Homicide evident
Slight
Increase in Robbery evident
Increase in Gun Crime evident X
Younger Victims/Offenders
Male on Male Criminality
* Where data available

4. a National Perspective National Picture Local Global Picture*
National
Picture
Local
Global Picture*
Increase in Knife Crime evident a
N/A
Increase in Homicide evident
Slight
Increase in Robbery evident
Increase in Gun Crime evident X
Younger Victims/Offenders
Male on Male Criminality

5. a National Perspective National Picture Local Global Picture*
National
Picture
Local
Global Picture*
Increase in Knife Crime evident a
N/A
Increase in Homicide evident
Slight
Increase in Robbery evident
Increase in Gun Crime evident X
Younger Victims/Offenders
Male on Male Criminality
* Where data available

6. National Serious Violence Strategy v Nottinghamshire
National Performance
Local Performance
Local picture/activity in atypical week:
8 Stop and Searches for weapons… 2 of which have a positive outcome
6 arrests for offences involving knives
3 charges for Violent Knife Crime offences
10 Possession of Bladed Article offences recorded

7. Violent Knife Crime – National Increases 2014-2017
Nottinghamshire is increasing but less so than several other forces

8. Violent Knife Crime – Core Cities Volume Comparison
Similarly, Nottinghamshire’s Violent Knife Crime volume is less than many forces

9. Violent Knife Crime – Key Message
Many of the Knife Violence issues identified nationally, are also evident in Nottinghamshire
That said, Nottinghamshire is in a better place than many other forces

10. Apparent step change from April 2016
Violent Knife Crime – Nottinghamshire Trend
Apparent step change from April 2016
Apparent step change from April 2016:
Embedding changes in crime recording standards / new crime rec system / new knife crime team
Stable trend over last 2 years
Average of about 65 offences per month

11. Introduction of Knife Crime Team
Knife Possession Offences
Introduction of Knife Crime Team
Larger increase than Knife Violence (10.8) – Arguably a positive as securing a knife possession is potentially one less victim in the violence category
Increase of 14.1% (60 offences) in 2017/18

12. Violent Knife Crime – Ethical Recording Processes
Different methodologies can be used by forces to report violent knife crime (i.e. use of ‘tags’ and/or the use of enhanced search methods.
This caveat should be noted when comparing cross-force data sets.
Nottinghamshire has an ethical recording process for knife crime
When discussing and comparing knife crime, it is important to note differing methods adopted by forces for recording knife crime...
Feb16 – new crime recording system
Feb 2017 – actions put in place to resolve identified issues
Dec 2017 – Technical solutions further improved the use of markers (tags)

13. Use of Stop & Search
Nottinghamshire reduced its use of Stop & Search by 2.5% in 2017/18, mirroring national reductions.
There has been an increase of 47.4% in the targeted Stop & Search for weapons in 2017/18

14. “ 2017 Force Position: Knife Violence is a Strategic Priority“
Violence & Weapon Enabled Crime is the primary threat to endeavours to reduce crime and keep people safe. Youth Knife Violence should be considered the core sub-threat within this priority theme.”
Nottinghamshire Police
Strategic Intelligence Assessment
2017

15. “ Ending Gang & Youth Violence in Nottingham City February 2012
Background: An On-going Concern “
There is an emerging threat regarding City based youth violence involving the use of knives”.
Ending Gang & Youth Violence in Nottingham City
February 2012
Intelligence Analysis
Threat & Risk Assessment

16. 487 822 57% City 43% County 58% City 42% County
Knife Crime in Nottinghamshire: Headline Numbers 2017/18
487
Knife Possessions in Nottinghamshire
57% City
43% County
822
Violent Knife Crimes in Nottinghamshire
58% City
42% County

17. 29% 50% 6 1% 12% 20% 16% Public Space Street Robbery Homicide Sexually
Breakdown of the 822 Violent Knife Offences
29%
Public Space
Street
Robbery
Homicide
50% 6
410 crimes 17/18
326 crimes 16/17
240 crimes 17/18
163 crimes 16/17
Knife Related
Deaths 17/18 1%
12%
Sexually
Motivated
In Dwelling
(but non-domestic related)
20%
Other
Buildings
16%
Domestic

18. 50% Public Space Public Space Violent Knife Crime
50%
Public Space
Across Nottinghamshire, there were 157 known public space knife attacks last year that resulted in physical injury (i.e. stab wound / laceration)
70% of public space violent knife crime takes place in Nottingham City
Knife-point street robbery represents 59% of public space knife crime
Of violent knife crime occurs within a public space.

19. 31% 68% Victimology Public Space Involving Young People
Public Space Violent Knife Crime Involving Young Persons
Victimology
Public Space Involving Young People
31%
Involve a victim
under 18 years of age.
Physical injury more likely in public attacks
U18yrs victims: increased by 10% in last year
U26yrs victims: increased by 13% in last year
Ethnicity of victims who are 25yrs or under:
68%
City
75% White
16% Black
8% Asian
1% Middle Eastern
County
90% White
9% Black
1% Asian
Involve a victim aged 25 years of age or below.

20. 25% 69% Offender Public Space Involving Young People
Public Space Violent Knife Crime Involving Young Persons
Offender
Public Space Involving Young People
25%
Involve an offender
under 18 years of age.
Evidence of premeditation (in terms of a willingness to carry a knife and use it)
Ethnicity of offenders who are 25yrs or under:
69%
City
52% Black
48% White
County
67% White
33% Black
Involve an offender aged 25 years of age or below.

21. 6 Knife Related Homicide Knife Related Homicides in 2017/18.6
Knife Related Homicides in 2017/18.
4 Domestic: white victims, middle aged
1 Public space: black victim, 17 years
1 Dwelling: white victim, 18 years
Comparison Between Knife Homicides & Non-Knife Homicides
Since April 2014:
16 Knife related Homicides
5 victims U25 yrs
1 child victim (17 yrs)

22. Drugs Alcohol Comment on Perceived Drivers for Serious Violence
Drugs
Class A drugs are a driver locally
Crack cocaine is less prevalent as a driver in Nottinghamshire
Alcohol
Available data suggests that the consumption of alcohol is a contributing factor in 14% of Violent Knife crimes

23. Precursor Risk Factors
Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders
Evidence of Potential
Precursor Risk Factors
‘A’
16yrs
‘B’
17yrs
‘C’
‘D’
‘E’
15yrs
Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a
Drug Use
Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation
Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse
Lack of Positive Role Models
Requirement for Social Services Involvement
School Exclusion / Truancy
Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

24. Precursor Risk Factors
Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders
Evidence of Potential
Precursor Risk Factors
‘A’
16yrs
‘B’
17yrs
‘C’
‘D’
‘E’
15yrs
Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a
Drug Use
Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation
Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse
Lack of Positive Role Models
Requirement for Social Services Involvement
School Exclusion / Truancy
Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

25. Precursor Risk Factors
Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders
Evidence of Potential
Precursor Risk Factors
‘A’
16yrs
‘B’
17yrs
‘C’
‘D’
‘E’
15yrs
Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a
Drug Use
Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation
Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse
Lack of Positive Role Models
Requirement for Social Services Involvement
School Exclusion / Truancy
Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

26. Precursor Risk Factors
Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders
Evidence of Potential
Precursor Risk Factors
‘A’
16yrs
‘B’
17yrs
‘C’
‘D’
‘E’
15yrs
Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a
Drug Use
Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation
Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse
Lack of Positive Role Models
Requirement for Social Services Involvement
School Exclusion / Truancy
Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

27. Precursor Risk Factors
Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders
Evidence of Potential
Precursor Risk Factors
‘A’
16yrs
‘B’
17yrs
‘C’
‘D’
‘E’
15yrs
Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a
Drug Use
Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation
Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse
Lack of Positive Role Models
Requirement for Social Services Involvement
School Exclusion / Truancy
Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

28. Precursor Risk Factors
Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders
Evidence of Potential
Precursor Risk Factors
‘A’
16yrs
‘B’
17yrs
‘C’
‘D’
‘E’
15yrs
Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a
Drug Use
Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation
Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse
Lack of Positive Role Models
Requirement for Social Services Involvement
School Exclusion / Truancy
Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

29. Precursor Risk Factors
Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders
Evidence of Potential
Precursor Risk Factors
‘A’
16yrs
‘B’
17yrs
‘C’
‘D’
‘E’
15yrs
Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a
Drug Use
Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation
Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse
Lack of Positive Role Models
Requirement for Social Services Involvement
School Exclusion / Truancy
Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

30. Precursor Risk Factors
Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders
Evidence of Potential
Precursor Risk Factors
‘A’
16yrs
‘B’
17yrs
‘C’
‘D’
‘E’
15yrs
Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a
Drug Use
Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation
Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse
Lack of Positive Role Models
Requirement for Social Services Involvement
School Exclusion / Truancy
Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

31. Precursor Risk Factors
Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders
Evidence of Potential
Precursor Risk Factors
‘A’
16yrs
‘B’
17yrs
‘C’
‘D’
‘E’
15yrs
Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a
Drug Use
Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation
Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse
Lack of Positive Role Models
Requirement for Social Services Involvement
School Exclusion / Truancy
Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

32. Other Factors – Exposure to Violence in Video Games?
Eldon Samuel, 14, confessed to the pre-planned murder of his father and brother.
A heavy gamer, Samuel idolised the character of Trevor in Grand Theft Auto. Samuel told police that he found it ‘kinda cool’ that Trevor relieves his anger issues by going around killing people.

33. Other Factors – Immediacy of Social Media?
Use of social media apps, such as Snapchat, continue to present a platform for young people to communicate immediately.
This can facilitate an uncensored, accelerated escalation in disputes.

34. Exposure to domestic abuse in the home Lack of positive role models
Cumulative Impact of Experiences & Exposures on an Individual’s Predilection to Commit Violent Crime?
Exposure to domestic abuse in the home
Lack of positive role models
Substance misuse
Low level criminality
Desensitised to violence in society
Broken/unstable family
Mental health challenges
School exclusion / truancy
Socioeconomic status / deprivation
Requirement for social services involvement
Disaffection
Violence in
video games
Use of social media
What is the cumulative impact of a combination of these factors
on a person’s ability to rationally deal with conflict situations?

35. Analytical Work: Identifying Violent Knife Crime Hot-Spots
As outlined in the national Serious Violence Strategy, choropleth hot-spot mapping can be a worthwhile aid to preventative policing activity, and can help crime reduction .

36. Analytical Work: Identifying Violent Knife Crime Hot-Spots

37. Analytical Work: Supporting Local Policing Areas
Knife Crime Threat Assessment The new local policing model will be supported with a new quarterly Knife Crime Threat Assessment that will provide forward-facing analysis of knife crime within each neighbourhood and CDP area.
Knife Crime Risk Cohort
Support to the Knife Crime team with an informed methodology for identifying risky individuals.

38. 401 Injuries Increasing Severity of Injuries
401
9% Head
13% Neck
11% Arm
Stabbings or lacerations caused by Knife attacks last year/
Injuries
Shift toward torso, neck and head/face being targeted by offenders
33% Torso
2% Buttock
11% Leg

39. That said, Nottinghamshire is in a better position than
Closing Comments
In line with national and (in some cases) international trends, it is evident that Nottinghamshire is facing a challenge from serious violence, knife crime and weapon enabled criminality.
That said, Nottinghamshire
is in a better position than
many other force areas
such as the Met, West
Midlands, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, Merseyside and
others.

40. Closing Comments “
Tackling serious violence is not a law enforcement issue alone. It requires a multiple strand approach involving a range of partners across different sectors.”