1. The impact of Brexit on the structure and machinery of UK government
8 March 2018
Tim Durrant
@timd_IFG
08/03/2018

2. What we do
The Institute for Government is the leading think tank working to make government more effective.
We provide rigorous research and analysis, topical commentary and public events to explore the key challenges facing government.
We offer a space for discussion and fresh thinking to help senior politicians and civil servants think differently and bring about change.
08/03/2018
THE IMPACT OF BREXIT ON UK GOVERNMENT

3. Overview Civil service numbers Whitehall structure
Negotiation structure
Implementing multiple scenarios
IFG: Whitehall and Brexit
08/03/2018
THE IMPACT OF BREXIT ON UK GOVERNMENT

4. Civil service workforce
08/03/2018
THE IMPACT OF BREXIT ON UK GOVERNMENT

5. Potential trade partners (and WTO)
Whitehall structure
No10
EU Member States
CO Europe Unit
Potential trade partners (and WTO)
Rest of world
Foreign Office
DExEU
DIT
This sets out how the different departments are interacting:
In the middle, you have David Davis’s department, Dept for Exiting the EU (DExEU) – they play a coordinating role across govt, manage the negotiating process and ensure that depts. are doing what they need to
The domestic depts. continue to own their policy areas (eg Home Office on migration, Treasury on financial services, Defra on agriculture) and DExEU pull it all together to form a coherent negotiating position.
Internationally, FCO in charge of overall foreign relations; Liam Fox’s Dept for Intl Trade is starting discussions with potential trade partners; and again DExEU coordinate international engagement with EU countries (as well as the EU Commission, who are leading the negotiations for the EU)
And overseeing all of this are No10 and the Cabinet Office Europe Unit, who manage the negotiating process
MoJ
Home Office
Defra
BEIS
Treasury

6. Negotiation structure
So far
Three key withdrawal issues
Transitional arrangements
Closely managed negotiating structure
What next?
Framework for the future relationship
After Brexit (?)– detail of future relationship
Wider negotiating structure?
08/03/2018
THE IMPACT OF BREXIT ON UK GOVERNMENT

7. Implementing multiple scenarios
NO DEAL
What is needed?
By when?
Immigration system for all EU citizens
March 2019
Customs system for all EU imports and exports
New regulators for current EU functions
Agreements with third countries
NEGOTIATED OUTCOME
What is needed?
By when?
New immigration system – depending on deal
End of transition
New customs system – depending on deal
New regulators – depending on deal
Agreements with third countries
March 2019
Firstly, if we look at what the CS has to implement – because of the time pressure, they can’t wait until the outcome of negotiations is known, they have to prepare for multiple scenarios
The contingency planning is around a ‘no deal’ scenario – if we leave the EU without any agreement whatsoever. So much of governing and administration is covered by EU processes, that there are a lot of things to put in place if that all falls away in just over a year’s time – these are just some of the more high profile examples, we can talk through in more detail if that’s of interest
Then, departments are starting to think about implementing changes that are agreed in the negotiations. Some of these are related to, or will build on, what they need to do for a no deal scenario. But some are not – what is required will very much depend on the deal
This is also complicated by the debate on transition – things will need to be implemented for when it ends. For many areas, the end of 2020 is not that much further away than March 2019 – eg fully functioning new immigration system will take years once it is agreed.
Agreements with third countries – fall out of EU agts –need to replicate them before we formally leave to ensure continuity of effect – that needs to be done in any scenario

8. IFG: Whitehall and Brexit - emerging findings
Uncertainty
What does the future relationship look like?
What does no deal really look like?
People
Difficulty of recruiting
Key skills
Cross-government working
Scale of task
Political sensitivities
08/03/2018
THE IMPACT OF BREXIT ON UK GOVERNMENT

9. For further information:
Any questions?
For further information:
+44 (0)
@timd_IFG
Institute for Government 2 Carlton Gardens, London, SW1Y 5AA United Kingdom