1. INSEE PROVIDES BOTH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
Analysing is one of the 6 vital missions dedicated to the Institute
Analysis topics cover both the short-term and the long-term
As for short-term horizon, analysis are mainly conducted in light of the quarterly short-term forecasts exercice
Quantitative stats + qualitative short-term information from Business Surveys
Crucial for assessing the economic situation : allows to know the behaviour of economic agents

2. DAILY ECONOMIC MONITOR
On line since March 16th in EN and FR versions
Daily updated in quasi real-time graphic book
Displays 56 graphs splitted in 11 sheets
Each sheet built for analysts purposes
Possibility to download graphed series

3. Tools involved are described with details along the scenario in boxes.
CONSTRUCTION AND DISSEMINATION OF TOOLS FOR ANALYSING ECONOMIC SITUATION
Tools involved are described with details along the scenario in boxes.
If the tool is the result of a rather complex calculation or estimation working paper or specific publication
Modelling quantitative variable (e.g. Production, Employment...) with balance of opinion collected in surveys.
VAR models

4. BUSINESS CYCLE TURNING POINT INDICATOR
2 EXAMPLES OF INDICATOR AS TOOLS FOR ANALYSING SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENTS 1/2
BUSINESS CYCLE TURNING POINT INDICATOR
Aims at detecting as early as possible the moment where economic situation is turning around.
Qualitative variable non directly observed
Difference between P(be in favorable phase) and P(be in a defavorable phase)
Estimation lies on a multivariate qualitative hidden markov model
See for example : and
Ref : Economie et Statistique n°314 –

5. BUSINESS CLIMATE SYNTHETIC INDICATOR
2 EXAMPLES OF INDICATOR AS TOOLS FOR ANALYSING SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENTS 2/2
BUSINESS CLIMATE SYNTHETIC INDICATOR
Summary in a unique variable of the changes in a set of variables (e.g. balance of opinion) whom evolution are highly correlated. The Index is the common component of the variables
Based on factoriel analysis splitting common and specific factors
Assess the nature of the economic phase : the higher the indicator is the more optimistic are business leaders
Ref : Economie et Statistique n° – 2002