1. ESA SW Pilot Project The ESA Space Weather Pilot Project Status in November 2005 A. Hilgers, A. Glover, E. Daly Space Environments and Effects Analysis Section, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands C. de Matos and F. Ongaro EUI-A, ESA-HQ, Paris

2. ESA SW Pilot Project Historical Background 1996: ESA Round Table on Space Weather. 1998: FMI report on space weather capabilities in Europe. 1998: First ESA Space Weather Workshop. 1999-2001: ESA feasibility study on a Space Weather Programme. 2000: Setting up of Space Weather Working Team. 2001: Submission of programme initiative to ESA management board =>Rejected (Quantification of value of service for sustainability and need more scientific basis). 2001: Start preparation of ESA-PP, COST724, and other… 2003: ESA SW pilot-project formally starts. 2003: COST 724 starts. 2005: COST 296 starts.

3. ESA SW Pilot Project Where we stand now in Nov 2005 Organisation of the scientific community (through COST 296, COST724).Organisation of the scientific community (through COST 296, COST724). Coordinated service investigation/evaluation in Europe (To end: April 2004). Options for next step: - NoC for spacecraft effects - ERA-net for science - overall coordinations????

4. ESA SW Pilot Project Coordinated Service Investigation Space Weather European Network (SWENET)Space Weather European Network (SWENET) : –Network of 26 service development activities (SDAs): 16 ESA co- funded SDA applications activities began on 1 st April 2003 + 10 independently funded activities. Continuously increasing... ommon support (portal, service provision, data access), evaluation method, modelling. –Common support (portal, service provision, data access), evaluation method, modelling. –Represents ~5 M investment incl. 2 from ESA GSP and rest from other ESA prog., national agencies, private investments,.... Independent benefit assessmentIndependent benefit assessment is establishing the economic and other benefits of the services (Contract with SEA). Interaction with EC – Ongoing (cf COST, EUCORES, FP6). ESA participation to ISES (International Space Environment Services- under IUGG).

5. ESA SW Pilot Project SWENET as a sample for study Co-funding (approx. 3 M) made available to this project by users or developers from 9 member states.Co-funding (approx. 3 M) made available to this project by users or developers from 9 member states. Broad community of users (incl. military).Broad community of users (incl. military). About 90% of the pilot project activities addressed three main types of effects which are:About 90% of the pilot project activities addressed three main types of effects which are: 1.External geomagnetic field 2.Ionospheric perturbations of radio signal (comms, nav). 3.Direct space environment effects on spacecraft.

6. ESA SW Pilot Project External geomagnetism in Europe Users: survey, electric power, pipe-line, military.Users: survey, electric power, pipe-line, military. SW Service: ~1-3 M; ground based magnetometers + ACE. 10 Y Market trend: remains of same order. Space advantage: not needed for ground effects, speculative for global scale and/or forecast, major for Solar wind. => Case for a SW monitor?

7. ESA SW Pilot Project Ionospheric effect on radio signal in Europe Users: HF users (airlines, military and civilian security applications) and GPS single frequency (~all) and dual frequency (geological surveying for prospecting, military, off-shore drilling in very deep sea, airlines for airport approach).Users: HF users (airlines, military and civilian security applications) and GPS single frequency (~all) and dual frequency (geological surveying for prospecting, military, off-shore drilling in very deep sea, airlines for airport approach). SW Service: ~10 M/Y, Ionosonde, dual frequency networks. 10 Y Market Trend: significant growth (Galileo, +down stream growth). Space advantage: global coverage, (possibly) forecast. => Case for a LEO constellation?

8. ESA SW Pilot Project

9. Direct effects on space systems in Europe Users: spacecraft designers, operators, downstream users, manned space flight.Users: spacecraft designers, operators, downstream users, manned space flight. SW Service: ~10 M/Y; using US NOAA, NASA data. 10 Y Market Trend: might be significant growth (new techno, manned space flight). Space advantage: major (no serious alternative). => Case for monitoring in critical regions?

10. ESA SW Pilot Project

11. Space Infrastructure Options MeasurementUsersHitchhikerDedicated SWAll-S/C-A at L1 IonosphereCom, Nav METOPS/C-B LEO const Rad GEOS/CMSG Rad GTOS/CX-HHS/C–C GTO Rad MEONavGalileo x 5 Rad LEOS/CMETOP

12. ESA SW Pilot Project Discussion of space elements options Option 0: No change User satisfaction: through US dominated service (+ possibly hardware elements to support ESA missions on a case by case basis and with difficulties).User satisfaction: through US dominated service (+ possibly hardware elements to support ESA missions on a case by case basis and with difficulties). Cost: ~1-5 M /Y (for ESA) + 10-100 M /Y (for non- ESA).Cost: ~1-5 M /Y (for ESA) + 10-100 M /Y (for non- ESA). Market and related R&D: non space related market durably disconnected from ESA; Slow development unless a new leadership and funding sources appear (COST724 ?).Market and related R&D: non space related market durably disconnected from ESA; Slow development unless a new leadership and funding sources appear (COST724 ?).

13. ESA SW Pilot Project Discussion of options Option 1: Hitchhikers on planned missions User satisfaction: partial near real-time service but poor coverage.User satisfaction: partial near real-time service but poor coverage. Cost: ~10 M /Y (for ESA).Cost: ~10 M /Y (for ESA). Market and related R&D: efficiently linked to ESA for S/C, Comm and Nav. via a programme or an inter- directorate activity; rapid improvement expected upstream and downstream.Market and related R&D: efficiently linked to ESA for S/C, Comm and Nav. via a programme or an inter- directorate activity; rapid improvement expected upstream and downstream.

14. ESA SW Pilot Project Discussion of options Option 2: Hitchhikers + dedicated spacecraft User satisfaction: near real-time service with global coverage and forecasting capabilities.User satisfaction: near real-time service with global coverage and forecasting capabilities. Cost: ~200 M (through ESA).Cost: ~200 M/5 Y (through ESA). Market and related R&D: fully linked to ESA via a SW programme (e.g. like Meteosat or GMES); improvement expected.Market and related R&D: fully linked to ESA via a SW programme (e.g. like Meteosat or GMES); improvement expected.

15. ESA SW Pilot Project Conclusion SWPP has shown evidence of interest from users (incl. industry).SWPP has shown evidence of interest from users (incl. industry). Market now within 10-100 M.Market now within 10-100 M /Y in Europe and rely on US or ground based data. Significant market potential growth might be expected for Nav and S/C (incl. manned space flight).Significant market potential growth might be expected for Nav and S/C (incl. manned space flight). Various space elements options are possible with investment commensurate with market size. Refinement of market scenarios and cost benefit analysis is in progress (contract with SEA). Possible undertaking for space elements need to be discussed after ESA council in December (relevant to next council in 2007-2008). S/C effect coordination may be taken care of by a NoC (TEC proposal).S/C effect coordination may be taken care of by a NoC (TEC proposal). Ionospheric effect coordination is partly covered by COST 296.Ionospheric effect coordination is partly covered by COST 296. Fundamental science of space weather is covered by COST 724, ILWS, E- STAR (TBC) and a possible ERA-Net.Fundamental science of space weather is covered by COST 724, ILWS, E- STAR (TBC) and a possible ERA-Net. Maintenance of overall coordinating structures (SWWT & SWENET) is under discussion (Lefeuvre proposal to ESA).