1. The Inventory Questionnaire
Summary Overview
Task Force meeting, Lisboa, 9-10 December
Wojtek Szewczyk and Shalini Mittal
9 December 2013

2. Outline of the presentation
Introduction:
TF vs. EU (sample vs population)
Current state of play
Inventory of methods
Some overview results
Inventory of sources
Availability of / missing data for the first quarter
Way forward

3. introduction

4. TF as representative for the EU28
19 : 10
in – TF
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Finland
France
Germany
Hungary
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
TF - out
Austria
Belgium
Croatia
Cyprus
Denmark
Estonia
Greece
Ireland
Malta
Spain

5. TF geographical coverage

6. TF and EU28 GDP (80%)

7. Inventory of methods

8. Current State of Play
Approach
Issues
Econometric Methodology

9. Current - Approach Both Expenditure Approach Production Approach
Portugal
France
Production Approach
Hungary
Lithuania
Poland
Romania UK
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Finland
Both
Germany
Latvia
Slovakia
Sweden
Italy, Netherlands did not specify their approach
Luxembourg, Slovenia, switzerland do not publish or calculate
Slovenia more interested in quality than in rapidity

10. Current - Issues Missing Data for Third Month Cost Ineffective
Organisational Issues
Availability of Short-Term Indicators?
No estimates at all
Information provided by 19 TF members.
France: cost ineffectiveness
Netherlands stopped the test runs because of pressure of work due to the SNA 2010
Luxembourg produces data with a lag of 90 days
Hungary started producing in 2012 but had to suspend due to High Work Load and Lack of Financing

11. Current-Econometric Methodology
Estimate Third Month of the Quarter
ARIMA
ARIMAX
TRAMO-SEATS
Univariate Methods
VAR
Dynamic Factor Models
Multivariate Methods
ECM
Temporal Disaggregation
Guestimation
Others
Germany-ARIMA

12. Advancement of T+30 across the TF
Experimenting
Experienced
Finland
Czech Rep.
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Hungary
Netherlands
Portugal
France
Italy
Latvia
Bulgaria
Germany
Lithuania UK
Sweden
Beginners
Experienced: who already had t+45 systems or some system in place and have also moved onto t+30
Experimenting: Who have some system in place already and have run a few trials or are looking at the potential to do so.
Scratch: no system in place
Luxembourg
Slovenia
Switzerland

13. Inventory of sources

14. Sources Collected questionnaires for 16 countries
169 unique indicators
Across 23 different combinations of NACE aggregations
And for Taxes and Subventions

15. Indicators across sectors

16. Mapping sectors and indicators
Use broad, aggregated NACE
If an indicator for aggregation of sectors (eg BCDE) is not available, an indicator for a constituent sub-aggregation can be used (eg C)
Indicators
First appearance of an indicator for a sector marks availability timeline
will produce most optimistic picture,
but will be refined in practice

17. Sectors mapping NACE aggregations NACE Final Sectors A B-E BCDE C F B
GHI D J
B-D K
F (primary construction industry) L MN
G-I
OPQ
G 46
RSTU
G 47
TAX
H 49
SUB
L (letting of dwellings)
L (real estate services without letting of dwellings)
M_N
M-N
O-Q
R-T
R-U
Subv.
Taxes

18. Used NACE aggregation EU28 GDP shares

19. Share of countries GDP ‘indicated’ by end-April

20. Indicators over time Stock of data available at t+25
% of EU28 GDP “indicated”
40%
37%
16%
January
February
March
April
t+25
time

21. % of EU28/TF GDP covered by the indicators at t+25 - example for Q1
% of EU28 covered
% of TF covered

22. Indicators for March become available in April…day-by-day

23. Indicators for March as become available in April (1)
% of sectoral GDP

24. Indicators for March as become available in April (2)
% of sectoral GDP

25. Indicators for March as become available in April (3)
% of sectoral GDP

26. Way forward

27. Way forward Decision on the approach
Verification of the relevant inventories
Verification of the past data (pre 2014:1)
Transmission of the monthly data (from 2014)
Production of the t+30 GDP test estimate

28. Questions, comments, discussion…
Thank you