1. ICAO: The MBM On the eve of the 2016 Assembly
Joojin Kim
September 2016
Image: (2014)

2. Carbon-Neutral Growth from 2020: What might be aviation’s demand?

3. K-ETS Aviation Year 1
Five companies subject to K-ETS, all but one were short
Approximately 1.28 MtCO2e allocated for Year 1, whereas the actual emissions during that year was approximately 1.47 MtCO2e (short by 14%, one of the shortest among the 20+ industry sectors covered by the K-ETS)

4. CDM vs. CORSIA CDM CORSIA CDM was a sideshow of the EU-ETS
CORSIA will be its own show, in which CDM will play a supporting role
EU ETS policy, and not CDM EB decisions, basically determined CER prices
CORSIA policy will basically determine the supply of offsets, and thus the exposure to airlines
CDM EB had a lot of room to be as stringent as it wanted to be
CORSIA policy will need to be, to some extent, collaborative, or else the whole scheme may weaken
Lots of negotiations and compromises, which may undermine the carbon neutral growth target, expected.
However…

5. Outlook for ICAO’s General Assembly 26 September-7 October 2016
China-USA joint Declaration 4 September: Likely to join from beginning
ECAC Bratislava Declaration 3 September (EU, Turkey, et al.): Likely to join from beginning if conditions, including broad participation, are met
Indonesia: Pledges to join from beginning
Marshall Islands 5 September: Will join from beginning, urges others to also
Canada, Mexico – likely to join with USA (“Tres Amigos” July 2016)
Others? UAE, Korea, Singapore, Japan, Brazil, Russia, South Africa...?
Industry: "We do not feel a pilot phase is necessary, because airlines and other aircraft operators will be ready and able to commence the scheme from 2020." Michael Gill, gvxhd
NGOs: “the optional nature of the initial phases raised concerns over the new mechanism’s ‘ability to deliver the CO2 reductions it needs to.’” James Beard, WWF support-for-aviation-climate-deal/
Will the goal of carbon-neutral growth from 2020 be met? / Similarly, will the 2 degrees target be met with the Paris Agreement?