1. Simulation of Global Warming in the Continental United States Using Agent-Based Modeling
By Marika Lohmus

2. Figure 1: Negative Feedback
Purpose
What is the relationship between population and global warming?
More people → more greenhouse gases
More greenhouse gases → higher temperatures
Higher temperatures → less people
Population size
Greenhouse gases
Temperature
Figure 1: Negative Feedback
Loop

3. Purpose Cont.
With a negative feedback loop, there should be an oscillating representation of the temperature and population size which should level off.
When, at what temperature and at what cost?

4. 1st Quarter Work NetLogo Got elevation data from previous project
Started Temperature map
Took me most of 1st quarter
Fig 2: Q1 Temperature Map
Fig 3: Elevation Map

5. 2nd Quarter Concentration: Temperature System Dynamics Agents Patches
Turtles
People
Cities

6. Temperature Map

7. System Dynamics

8. Agents Patches Turtles People Cities Elevation Temperature Death-rate
Birth-rate
Turtles
Act as borders
Negative values
People
Salary
1/10,000
Cities
Median Salary
Poverty percent
Name

9. Patches Change color as elevation or temperature changes
Color determined by change in average global temperature
Fig 5: Temperature Increase

10. People Turtle-like agents Human shape
Random number generated for each – birth rate and death rate per 10,000 people per year
Another random number generated to determine whether the agent will move or not
Looks better – otherwise people stay in one place

11. Assumption
Total population of the united states = population of all the largest cities
Everyone lives in large cities
Everyone has an equal effect on greenhouse gas output
Total greenhouse gas emissions determined by population size
# Factories increase as population increases

13. BehaviorSpace for data
3rd Quarter
Finished Coding
Designed Interface
BehaviorSpace for data

14. Current Results
Figure 7: Temperature and Population Data

15. Variables
D_R
The death rate changes as temperatures and sea levels increase
Infection diseases, drowning, heat stroke, etc.
By how much?
Technology determines D_R
D_R
Avg. Pop.
Avg. Temp. 1
260.52
101
4122.7
259.29
201
4130
259.43

16. Variables (Cont.) Birth Rate
Assuming that brith rate remains constant (.1418)
Will it change in the future and by how much?
D_R
Avg. Temp.
Avg. Pop. .2
262.29 .6
281.79 .8
292.46
5903.9