1. Spatio-temporal information in society: global change
Gilberto Câmara
Licence: Creative Commons ̶̶̶̶ By Attribution ̶̶̶̶ Non Commercial ̶̶̶̶ Share Alike

2. We need cooperation at a global level…By
8,5 billion people: 6 billion tons of GHG and 60 million tons of urban pollutants.
Resource-hungry: We will withdraw 30% of available fresh water.
Risky living: 80% urban areas, 25% near earthquake faults, 2% in coast lines less than 1 m above sea level.
source: Guy Brasseur

3. The fundamental question of our time
How is the Earth’s environment changing, and what are the consequences for human civilization?
fonte: IGBP

4. In the last 10,000 years, Earth’s average temperature has not varied more than 10C

5. Will the Artic become an ice-free ocean?
graphics: The Economist

6. Are we crossing planetary boundaries?
Stockholm Resilience Centre

7. Negative consequences of the green revolution?
graphics: The Economist

8. Good consequences of green revolution
graphics: The Economist

9. graphics: The Economist
Global hunger index
graphics: The Economist

10. Forests and food production: potential conflicts
graphics: Nature

11. Brazil: Do biofuels cause indirect land change?

12. Brazil: Projected direct land change from biofuels (2020)
source: Lapola et al (PNAS, 2010)

13. Brazil: Projected indirect land change from biofuels (2020)
source: Lapola et al (PNAS, 2010)
source: Lapola et al (PNAS, 2010)

14. Question #4 for human-environment models
How do we combine independent multi-scale models with feedback?

15. Models: From Global to Local
Athmosphere, ocean, chemistry climate model (200 x 200 km)
Atmosphere only global climate model (50 x 50 km)
Regional climate model (10 x 10 km)
Hydrology, Vegetation
Soil Topography (1 x 1 km)
Regional land use change
Socio-economic adaptation (e.g., 100 x 100 m)

17. There is an urgent need for the international scientific community to develop the knowledge that can inform and shape effective responses to these threats in ways that foster global justice and facilitate progress toward sustainable development goals.

18. ICSU “Grand challenges”
Improve the usefulness of forecasts of future environmental conditions and their consequences for people.
Develop, enhance and integrate the observation systems needed to manage global and regional environmental change.
Determine what institutional, economic and behavioural changes can enable effective steps toward global sustainability.