1. CALCULATION OF GHG EMISSIONS IN THE FUEL CHAIN
Brussels 17/07/2007 Member states experts meeting on fuel life cycle analysi, DG-ENV 1
Joint Research Centre (JRC)
The European Commission’s
Research-Based Policy Support Organisation
“Robust science for policy making”
CALCULATION OF GHG EMISSIONS IN THE FUEL CHAIN
Robert Edwards
European Commission
Joint Research Centre
Institute for Environment and Sustainability
Renewable Energies Unit
Ispra, Italy

2. + METHODOLOGY FOR EMISSIONS FROM BIOFUELS
(extra biofuels scenario) – (reference scenario)
alternative use of the field
Biofuel crop on a field
crude oil
refinery
processing
emissions from what the by-product substitutes
e.g. soy-meal cake +
distribution
distribution
by-product e.g. rapeseed cake
car
Car
ACCOUNTING FOR BY-PRODUCTS:
Credit for the emissions saved by not making what the by-product substitutes
GHG saved depends on the use of the byproducts, so “allocation” methods are wrong.
Gives the effect of biofuels on total GHG emissions
But it does not tell us how much GHG is saved in the transport fuel sector
…because by-products are used in other sectors, e.g. heating, animal feed...

3. By-products are exported out of the transport fuel sector before they are used.
The calculation for the GHG saved in the transport fuel sector should be simpler because it should not depend on the use of the by-products
in JEC WTW we already had to deal with electricity as a by-product…

4. extreme example: BIO-ELECTRICITY + ETHANOL PROCESS
How not to deal with electricity as a by-product:
extreme example: BIO-ELECTRICITY + ETHANOL PROCESS
“biofuel” scenario
reference scenario
2.5 MW wheat
100 MW Straw
1.1 MW crude oil
80 MW fossil fuel -
Electricity plant
Wheat-Ethanol plant
heat
1MW petrol
30 MW electricity
30 MW electricity
1MW ethanol
FOSSIL ENERGY BALANCE Per 1 MJ ethanol: Input: Fossil input: MJ wheat MJ MJ straw MJ MJ petrol MJ - 30 MJ fossil elect MJ “Fossil fuel saved MJ per MJ ethanol”
= total fossil fuel saved by (bioelectricity + bioethanol) ethanol produced
Here, all the fossil energy savings from (bioelectricity + biofuel) production are attributed only to the biofuel… …but most of it was saved in the electricity sector!

5. You find fossil fuel saved in transport fuel sector by balancing the bioelectricity production…
“biofuel” scenario
reference scenario
2.5 MW wheat
1.1 MW crude oil
100 MW straw
100 MW Straw -
Electricity plant
Wheat-Ethanol plant
heat
1MW petrol
30 MW bioelectricity
30 MW bioelectricity
1MW ethanol
FOSSIL ENERGY BALANCE Per 1 MJ ethanol: Input: Fossil input: 2.5 MJ wheat MJ 100 MJ straw MJ MJ petrol MJ - 30 MJ bioelectricity MJ Fossil fuel saved MJ per MJ ethanol
= fossil fuel saved by ethanol production ethanol produced
Using a credit for electricity from the same fuel, we balance out the fossil fuel saving in the electricity sector, and find the savings in the transport fuel sector

6. You should do the same if the co-generated electricity comes from natural gas, or coal…
The credit from the electricity sector will balance part (maybe all) of the emissions from the cogeneration plant.
The CO2 emissions from electricity are a problem for the electricity sector.
So far, this is still rigorous…

7. What if we export rapeseed cake?
By the same rigorous (“bioelectricity”) logic, to work out the emissions effect in the transport fuel sector we need to make a credit based on “rapeseed cake farming”.
Because there is no “rapeseed cake bush”, we cannot solve this problem rigorously
We need to make an assumption….

8. We need to make an assumption:
e.g. “The upstream emissions for making by-products …is proportional to their mass” to their energy content” to their cost”
All are wrong, but assumption 3 is less wrong than the others.
A credit on this basis leads to allocation of upstream emissions by “economic value”
“cost fluctuates with time”
Answer 1: if it crosses zero, the by-product becomes a waste: OK
Answer 2: so what, we knew all the approximations are wrong!
the “economic value” chosen should be time-averaged over, say, five years to avoid short term market price fluctuations

9. Another simplification…
leave out fuel and feedstock transport
processing
farming

10. Issues people prefer to ignore
Land use change
displacement of food production outside EU
Indirect land use change
Vast range of local N2O emissions from farm soils (even if JEC WTW calculates the EU average per crop)

11. + REFERENCE LAND USE IS IMPORTANT!
(extra biofuels scenario) – (reference scenario)
Biofuel crop on a field
alternative use of the field
crude oil
Chain for product substituted by by-product
e,g, soy-meal cake
refinery
processing +
distribution
distribution
by-product e.g. rapeseed cake
car
Car

12. growing extra food outside EU
(extra biofuels scenario) – (reference scenario)
DISPLACEMENT OF FOOD PRODUCTION: EMISSIONS EFFECTS
EU field growing crop for biofuels
EU field growing crop for food
growing extra food outside EU
these two roughly cancel out
NOTES
1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME
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2. SLIDE NUMBER
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3. SLIDES
3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed.
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3.14. Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s).
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Using crops for biofuels (except on set-aside land) will displace food production outside EU: where? what is the change in land use? what are the emissions?

13. Emissions from biofuels depend on: the fuel used for process-heat
EU-average GHG emissions from “conventional” bioethanol compared to gasoline (for set-aside = no extra food production or land use change needed)
Emissions from biofuels depend on:
the fuel used for process-heat
electricity cogeneration
use of by-products
N2O emissions from farming …EU-average in this case
reference land use (= set aside, in this case)
biggest uncertainty:
N2O emissions
from the soil
results from JEC-WTW study

14. } geographic crop distribution
we estimated EU-average N2O emissions per crop
…but it varies by 1000x between farms!
N2O from wheat fields in EU
(JRC calculations)
kg/ha/y
N2O g/GJ (Average for EU15)
depends on:
1. SOIL
2. Climate
3. Which reference crop?
4. Yield
5. N fertilizer input
} geographic crop distribution

15. - 2. EMISSIONS FROM GASOLINE AND DIESEL: refinery
Introducing an alternative fuel means a reduction in either diesel or gasoline output
One can model the reduction in refinery emissions. -
NOTES
1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME
1.1. Access the slide-set place, date and event name text box beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master.
1.2. Do not change the size nor the position of that text box.
1.3. Replace the mock-up texts for the place (“Place”), the date (“dd Month YYYY”) and the event name (“Event Name”) with your own texts.
1.4. Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial.
1.5. Keep the original flush-left justification.
1.6. Keep the original font colour (white).
1.7. Keep the original font body size (7 pt) and the text on one single line.
2. SLIDE NUMBER
2.1. The slide number on the banner’s lower right-hand side is automatically generated.
3. SLIDES
3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed.
3.2. Do not change the size nor the position of the slide’s text box.
3.3. Try not to place more text on each slide than will fit in the given text box.
3.4. Replace the mock-up heading text (“Joint Research Centre (JRC)”) with your own text heading.
3.5. Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial.
3.6. Keep the original flush-left justification.
3.7. Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k).
3.8. Keep the original font body size (28 pt) and the heading on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the font body size if needed.
3.9. Replace the mock-up text (“The European Commission’s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation)”) with your own text.
3.10. Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial.
3.11. Keep the original flush-left justification.
3.12. Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use black if you need a second colour.
3.13. Keep the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it if unavoidable.
3.14. Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s).
3.13. Try to keep your illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom-aligned with the main text box whenever possible.

16. Oil Refinery emissions:
EU-refineries spend energy to increase diesel production compared to gasoline.
So replacing diesel saves more energy and emissions than replacing gasoline
results from JEC-WTW study

17. Well-to-Tank emissions from fossil fuels 2013 % of product energy used
gCO2eq/MJ product
Gasoline
Diesel
Crude extraction and conditioning* 3%
3.6
3.7
Crude transport 1%
0.9
Refining in EU 8%
10%
7.0
8.6
Distribution and dispensing 2%
1.0
TOTAL
14±2 %
16±2 %
12.5 ±2
14.2 ±2
*without flaring
results from JEC-WTW study

18. Emissions from biofuels depend on: the fuel used for process-heat
EU-average GHG emissions from “conventional” bioethanol compared to gasoline (for set-aside = no extra food production or land use change needed)
Emissions from biofuels depend on:
the fuel used for process-heat
electricity cogeneration
use of by-products
N2O emissions from farming (EU-average used here)
reference land use (= set aside, in this case)
results from JEC-WTW study

19. They do NOT say how much GHG is saved in the transport fuel sector
LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS assesses ALL the environmental impacts of biofuel production and use.
WELL-to-WHEELS analysis is restricted to quantifiable aspects: e.g. GreenHouse Gas (GHG) emissions.
They estimate how much GHG is saved altogether per unit of biofuel compared to gasoline/diesel.
They do NOT say how much GHG is saved in the transport fuel sector
The object of fuels directive is to save GHG in the transport fuel sector.
NOTES
1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME
1.1. Access the slide-set place, date and event name text box beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master.
1.2. Do not change the size nor the position of that text box.
1.3. Replace the mock-up texts for the place (“Place”), the date (“dd Month YYYY”) and the event name (“Event Name”) with your own texts.
1.4. Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial.
1.5. Keep the original flush-left justification.
1.6. Keep the original font colour (white).
1.7. Keep the original font body size (7 pt) and the text on one single line.
2. SLIDE NUMBER
2.1. The slide number on the banner’s lower right-hand side is automatically generated.
3. SLIDES
3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed.
3.2. Do not change the size nor the position of the slide’s text box.
3.3. Try not to place more text on each slide than will fit in the given text box.
3.4. Replace the mock-up heading text (“Joint Research Centre (JRC)”) with your own text heading.
3.5. Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial.
3.6. Keep the original flush-left justification.
3.7. Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k).
3.8. Keep the original font body size (28 pt) and the heading on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the font body size if needed.
3.9. Replace the mock-up text (“The European Commission’s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation)”) with your own text.
3.10. Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial.
3.11. Keep the original flush-left justification.
3.12. Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use black if you need a second colour.
3.13. Keep the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it if unavoidable.
3.14. Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s).
3.13. Try to keep your illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom-aligned with the main text box whenever possible.

20. Calculating emissions from the fuel chain: summary
Biofuels processing
we know how to estimate emissions from processes, but…
by-products: we can estimate the emissions they save, but existing studies forget these are mostly not in the transport fuel industry
Farm emissions are more uncertain because a:-
- annual farm emissions from soils are vary variable and need sophisticated modelling
- expanding arable area gives large but uncertain soil carbon emissions
- using crops for biofuels will displace some food production outside EU: no-one has worked out the important but complex emissions implications
NOTES
1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME
1.1. Access the slide-set place, date and event name text box beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master.
1.2. Do not change the size nor the position of that text box.
1.3. Replace the mock-up texts for the place (“Place”), the date (“dd Month YYYY”) and the event name (“Event Name”) with your own texts.
1.4. Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial.
1.5. Keep the original flush-left justification.
1.6. Keep the original font colour (white).
1.7. Keep the original font body size (7 pt) and the text on one single line.
2. SLIDE NUMBER
2.1. The slide number on the banner’s lower right-hand side is automatically generated.
3. SLIDES
3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed.
3.2. Do not change the size nor the position of the slide’s text box.
3.3. Try not to place more text on each slide than will fit in the given text box.
3.4. Replace the mock-up heading text (“Joint Research Centre (JRC)”) with your own text heading.
3.5. Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial.
3.6. Keep the original flush-left justification.
3.7. Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k).
3.8. Keep the original font body size (28 pt) and the heading on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the font body size if needed.
3.9. Replace the mock-up text (“The European Commission’s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation)”) with your own text.
3.10. Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial.
3.11. Keep the original flush-left justification.
3.12. Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use black if you need a second colour.
3.13. Keep the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it if unavoidable.
3.14. Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s).
3.13. Try to keep your illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom-aligned with the main text box whenever possible.
Emissions from fossil fuel chains are less uncertain

21. Marginal upstream GHG emissions for EU diesel and gasoline 2013
results from JEC-WTW study

22. EU-average GHG emissions from “conventional” EU bioethanol compared to gasoline 2013 (for set-aside = no land use change or extra food production)
results from JEC-WTW study

23. GHG emissions from imported and 2nd generation EU bioethanol, compared to gasoline 2013 and 1st generation (without considering land-use change)
results from JEC-WTW study

24. GHG emissions from EU biodiesel (for production on EU set-aside, so no extra food production or extra farmland needed)
results from JEC-WTW study

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