1. Northwestern Mexico Hydrological drought predictability: influences and effects
Francisco Munoz
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
for presentation at
Regional Climate Forum for Northwest Mexico
and the Southwest United States
10-11 April 2008
CICESE, Ensenada México

2. Outline Motivation Current Drought Assessment
Hydrological Forecast System
Coverage
VIC
Preliminary Drought Assessment
Further work

3. Motivation
Effects of drought are among the most costly from different perspectives
Use of hydrological and agricultural drought forecasts
UW West-wide hydrologic forecast system – moving toward integral drought analysis over Mexico and the U.S.

4. Drought Events in the 20th Century28 19 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 1
from Arteaga Ramirez and Vazquez Peña, 1998

5. Drought Assessment Available Indices Proposed Method
Palmer Drought Index
Standardized Precipitation Index
Surface Water Supply Index
Proposed Method
Percentiles relative to the climatology ( )
Use of Hydrological Models to create continuous spatiotemporal patterns of drought-linked variables
Allow monitoring and forecast
North American Drought Monitor, 2008

6. VIC Model

7. UW-Westwide hydrologic forecast system (UW-HFS)
Soil Moisture and Streamflow percentile (20%)

9. Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
ICs
Spin-up
Forecast
observed
recent
met data to generate
“perfect” ICs
ensemble of historical met data
to generate ensemble
forecast
hydrologic
state
Applications: climate forecast
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

10. Streamflow Forecast More than 200 stations over the US
Currently 23 Points over Mexico
13 points over the NAM region (9 in the Yaqui basin)

11. Yaqui River Basin Angostura Oviachi Bavispe Paso Nacori Moctezuma Aros-
/Papigochi
River
Oviachi
Yaqui River
Gulf of California
Yaqui Valley

12. Runoff Forecast
June 2007
July 2007

13. Streamflow and Streamflow Anomaly
Angostura

14. Streamflow Anomalies
Boquilla, BC
Perlas, Chis
Paso Nacori

15. Probability of Drought Occurrence

16. Summary
Spatial Distribution of Runoff percentiles emulates the NADM drought Index (PDI)
UW-HFS presents higher resolution
Wider distribution over southern BC and northern BCS
Higher values over southeastern Mexico
Important effect of initial conditions on the monsoon streamflow prediction

17. Further work Drought Monitoring and Forecast System
Implementation of the SIMOP (Reservoir Model) in the Yaqui basin
Integration of UW surface water monitor (national) with UW-HFS
Multi-model development over Mexico
NOAH, SAC, possibly others

18. Additional Features
SIMulador Operacional (SIMOP) Reservoir Operational Model for the Yaqui basin

19. Current Mexican Basins