1. Risk Management – Correlation and Dependencies for Planning, Design and Construction
Philip Sander
Alfred Moergeli
John Reilly

2. Advanced Probabilistic Risk Modeling Risks Occurring Multiple Times
Content
Advanced Probabilistic Risk Modeling
Risks Occurring Multiple Times
Event Tree Analysis
RAMS Analysis

3. Advanced Probabilistic Risk Modeling
The advantages of very advanced, probabilistic risk modeling (RIAAT 2014), such as currently used for the Koralm and Brenner Base Tunnels in Austria, include:
Better, more complete modeling of the project and the ability to correlate risk events
A more detailed risk assessment and useful risk management information
More transparency and reporting of outcomes, e.g., ranking of risks, tornado diagrams
The ability to monitor and document changes to the project
The ability to integrate change order management
Although correlations (and dependencies) are a ubiquitous concept in modern risk management, they are also one of the most misunderstood concepts.

4. Correlations and Dependencies
Correlations quantify how specific change on one project element or characteristic is linked to a change in related project elements.
Example 1: A change in the price of steel will cause changes in the cost of several related project elements.
Example 2: A probability of high labor costs can lead to a high impact of time-related cost in other project elements.
Dependencies characterize risks that are related: One risk may trigger one or more other risks, or one risk may influence the consequence (value) of another risk (or multiple risks).
Example: If a TBM is stuck in a fault zone, it might get buried and, as a further consequence, deadlocked, etc.

5. Lower Inn Valley Railway Corridor (Tyrol/Austria)
Risks Occurring Multiple Times
Lower Inn Valley Railway Corridor (Tyrol/Austria)
The project includes the construction section 1 (Kundl‐Baumkirchen) of the Lower Inn Valley Railway Corridor.
It is part of the Brenner Base Tunnel scheme.
The railway track has an approximate length of 40 km. 32 km are underground.

6. Risks Occurring Multiple Times
Scenario: Cyclic excavation in a rock zone comes with the danger of cave-ins.
Probability of Occurrence:
It is expected that 2 cave-ins will occur in this section.
Of course, it is also possible that there will be no cave-ins at all, and in worst cases there could be more than two.
Financial Impact:
The financial impact is modeled as a triangular function with the parameters:
Min: 50, ML: 65, Max: 90,000

7. Risks Occurring Multiple Times
Scenario two cave-ins
Scenario one cave-in
Scenario three cave-ins
Scenarios four and more cave-ins
Probability that no cave-in will occur
Deterministic Approach: 2 x 65,000 = 130,000

8. Koralm Base Tunnel (Southern Austria)
Event Tree Analysis
Koralm Base Tunnel (Southern Austria)
With a total length of 32.8 km and a maximum cover of m the base tunnel will traverse the Koralpe mountain range. The tunnel system is designed with two single-track tubes (approx. 82 m² per tube) and cross drifts at intervals of 500 m. Excavation for the Koralm tunnel is executed by two double shield TBM’s for long distances.

9. Event Tree Analysis

10. Event Tree Analysis

11. Event Tree Analysis
1 Fault Zone
20 Fault Zones

12. Functional System Safety (FSS)

13. Bow Tie Analysis – Combination of a Fault Tree with an Event Tree Analysis

14. RAMS – System in Context

15. RAMS – Reliability, Availability, Maintainability & Safety

16. RAMS – FTA RAM

17. RAM – Interpretation of Results

18. RAMS – FTA Safety
Analysis Period = 1h