1. Demographics of Texas and the Aging Population
Texas Assisted Living Association
Galveston, Texas
April 13, 2017

2. 2016 Population (millions)
Growing States,
2000
Population
(millions)
2010
2016 Population (millions)
Numeric
Change
Percent
United States
281.4
308.7
323.1
14.3
4.7%
Texas
20.8
25.1
27.8
2.7
10.8%
California
33.8
37.2
39.2
1.9
5.4%
Florida
15.9
18.8
20.6
1.8
9.6%
Georgia
8.2
9.7
10.3 .6
6.4%
North Carolina
8.0
9.5
10.1
Washington
5.8
6.7
7.3
8.4%
Arizona
5.1
6.4
6.9 .5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Count, 2016 Population Estimates.
Texas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’ growth exceeds that of all other states between 2010 and 205.

3. Total Population in Texas, 1950-2016 (millions)
All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates

4. Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2016?
86%
When we look at the geographic distribution of the population of Texas over time we see continually increasing population in the counties along the I-35 corridor, the Houston area, and the lower Rio Grand Valley. Urbanized areas out west have grown but most counties west have experienced limited growth and some population decline. Approximately 86% of the population is along I-35 and east. This area with the 3 major metropolitan areas at the points is often described as the Texas population triangle.
The counties of Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, and Travis make up the points of the “population triangle” in Texas and are the most populated in the State. Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, and El Paso counties also have significant population concentrations. Many counties west of Interstate 35 are more sparsely populated.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

5. Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2015
99 counties lost population over the five year period.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.
Population change over the decade has been greatest in the urban and suburban population triangle counties. Counties in the lower Rio Grande Valley also had significant growth as did El Paso . Overall, 155 counties gained population while 99 (39%) lost population over the decade.

6. Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2015 to 2016
85 counties lost population over this one year period.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2016 Vintage.
Population change over the decade has been greatest in the urban and suburban population triangle counties. Counties in the lower Rio Grande Valley also had significant growth as did El Paso . Overall, 155 counties gained population while 99 (39%) lost population over the decade.

7. Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2015
Percent change is an indicator of the speed of population change void of information about the volume of population change. Percent change in the population over the past few years has been greatest in the urban and suburban population triangle counties. Notably counties in the Eagle Ford Shale area (south east of San Antonio) and the Cline Shale area (Midland and Odessa area), have been growing quickly.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.

8. Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2015 to 2016
Percent change is an indicator of the speed of population change void of information about the volume of population change. Percent change in the population over the past few years has been greatest in the urban and suburban population triangle counties. Notably counties in the Eagle Ford Shale area (south east of San Antonio) and the Cline Shale area (Midland and Odessa area), have been growing quickly.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2016 Vintage.

9. Estimated Net-Migrants by County, Texas, 2014-2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.

10. Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2015-2016
County
U.S. Rank Population Change
Population Change
Percent of Change from Natural Increase
Percent Change from Domestic Migration
Percent Change from International Migration
Harris 2
56,587
79.9%
-27.9%
48.1%
Tarrant 5
35,462
44.4%
37.7%
17.9%
Bexar 7
33,198
44.6%
39.3%
16.1%
Dallas 9
29,209
-20.9%
41.0%
Denton 11
27,689
23.9%
67.1%
9.0%
Fort Bend 13
27,388
24.8%
59.4%
15.8%
Collin 14
26,506
25.8%
58.7%
15.5%
Travis 17
24,505
44.2%
33.3%
22.5%
Williamson 22
20,659
20.3%
74.1%
5.6%
Montgomery 24
19,769
18.5%
73.5%
8.0%
Hidalgo* 54
10,529
113.5%
-33.4%
19.9%
Hidalgo County had negative net migration (-13.5% of total population growth).
Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

11. Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2015-2016
County
U.S. Rank
Percent Population Change
Percent Change from Domestic Migration
Percent Change from International
Migration
Kendall 2
5.2%
95.9%
4.0%
Hays 3
5.1%
82.2%
1.8%
Comal 6
4.4%
88.5%
2.0%
Williamson 14
4.1%
74.1%
5.6%
Fort Bend 18
3.8%
59.4%
15.8%
Montgomery 24
3.7%
73.5%
8.0%
Rockwall 25
3.6%
2.5%
Denton 28
67.1%
9.0%
Kaufman 36
3.4%
81.3%
2.2%
Bastrop 42
3.1%
83.5%
0.7%
Ellis 50
78.1%
2.6%
*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2016
Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

12. Top 10 Gross Migration States for Domestic Migration to Texas, 2013
U.S. Census Bureau ACS 1-Year PUMS,2013

13. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
As of the 2000 Census, about 53% of Texas’ population was non-Hispanic Anglo, about 32% where of Hispanic descent, about 11% where non-Hispanic African American, and about 4% were non-Hispanic Other.
In 2010, it is estimated that about 45% of the Texas population was non-Hispanic Anglo, 38% of Hispanic descent, 11% were non-Hispanic African American, and about 6% were non-Hispanic Other (largely of Asian descent). 11
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2015 Population Estimates

14. Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2014
The age distribution of the non-Hispanic white population in Texas is weighted heavily with the “baby boom” generation. Largely the result of lower fertility and less net in-migration, the non-Hispanic white population has relatively fewer young persons relative to those in the middle-age years. In 2010, at ages 37 and younger, the Hispanic population exceeds the non-Hispanic white population.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

15. Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014
This population pyramid represents the age, sex, race and ethnic composition of the Texas population. Blue represents males, red females, rows are single years of age, and shades represent specified race/ethnic groups as indicated in the legend.
Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates

16. Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014
This population pyramid represents the age, sex, race and ethnic composition of the Texas population. Blue represents males, red females, rows are single years of age, and shades represent specified race/ethnic groups as indicated in the legend.
Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates

17. Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014
This population pyramid represents the age, sex, race and ethnic composition of the Texas population. Blue represents males, red females, rows are single years of age, and shades represent specified race/ethnic groups as indicated in the legend.
Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates

18. Percent of the Population Aged 65 Years and Older by State, 2010-2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample

19. Estimated number of persons aged 65 years and older, Texas Counties, 2010-2014
Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, American Community Survey, Year Sample

20. Percent of the population aged 75 years and older, Texas Counties, 2009-2013
Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, American Community Survey, Year Sample

21. Median Age by State,
The median age of Texas’ population is young compared to most states.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample

22. Median Age, Texas Counties, 2010-2014
Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, American Community Survey, Year Sample

23. Change in Median Age, Texas Counties, 2000-2014
Source: US Census Bureau US Census Bureau, Decennial Census, SF-1, Population Estimates 2014 Vintage.

24. Trends in Aging* by County, Texas, 2000-2014
*2000 median age 30 and greater = old to 2014 determines aging.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 decennial census and 2014 American Community Survey 5-Yr estimates.

25. Projected Population, Counties, Texas, 2020-2050
2030
2040
2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections, 1.0 Scenario

26. Projected Population, Counties, Texas, 2020-2050
2040
2030
2020
Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections, 1.0 Scenario

27. Projected Percent Change in Population 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections, 1.0 Scenario

28. Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050
Projected doubling date from 2010
The projected population of Texas is produced using three different migration scenarios. The blue line represents the assumption that there is no in or out migration for Texas. The result is a population that is growing only from natural increase (births-deaths). Under this unlikely scenario, Texas will maintain a health pace of population growth. The other two scenarios assume that 1) the migration rate will be the same as we observed between 2000 and 2010 and 2) the migration rate will be half of what we observed between 2000 and Under the first assumption Texas will add another 5 million persons this decade, another 7 million the following, 8 or 9 million between 2030 and 2040 and almost 10 million between 2040 and The half migration scenario also projects significant growth but more modest than the assumption of full migration.
Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

29. Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2015
Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

30. Projected Growth of Population Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas, 2010-2050
The projected population of Texas is produced using three different migration scenarios. The blue line represents the assumption that there is no in or out migration for Texas. The result is a population that is growing only from natural increase (births-deaths). Under this unlikely scenario, Texas will maintain a health pace of population growth. The other two scenarios assume that 1) the migration rate will be the same as we observed between 2000 and 2010 and 2) the migration rate will be half of what we observed between 2000 and Under the first assumption Texas will add another 5 million persons this decade, another 7 million the following, 8 or 9 million between 2030 and 2040 and almost 10 million between 2040 and The half migration scenario also projects significant growth but more modest than the assumption of full migration.
Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

31. Population Change by Age Group, Texas, 1950-2050
Source: US Census Bureau, Censuses
US Census Bureau, State Population Estimates
Texas State Data Center, 2014 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario

32. Population Projections, Texas, 2010-2050, Percent Over and Under 65
Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections , Half Migration Scenario

33. Texas Population Change by Age Group, 2010-2030
This image represents population pyramids for Texas in 2010 and then our projected population in Population pyramids provide a visual representation of the age structure of a population. In comparing 2010 and 2030 in terms of the impact on our education system, look at the lighter shaded areas from 15 years and above to Some proportion of this increased population in these ages will be going to college in Texas. The lighter shaded areas below 15 suggest what’s coming in the future.
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

34. Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050
The projected population of Texas by race/ethnicity suggests that the Hispanic population will be a major driver in the population growth of the state. The non-Hispanic white population will grow very slowly and then start to decline as the Baby-Boom generation ages into high mortality years. The non-Hispanic other group is largely composed of persons of Asian descent and this group is projected to exceed the non-Hispanic black population by This graph assumes migration patterns observed between 2000 and 2010.
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , Migration Scenario

35. Population Projections 65 Years and Over by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections , Half Migration Scenario

36. Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity for Age Groups, 2010 and 2050
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2014 Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario
Source: US Census Bureau, State Population Estimates, 2014

37. Percent of the Population Aged 65 Years and Older without Health Insurance, Texas Counties,

38. Percent of the population aged 65 years and older with an independent living disability, Texas Counties,
Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, American Community Survey, Year Sample

39. RNs and LVNs Working in Nursing Homes and Extended Care Facilities per 1,000 Persons Aged 65 Years and Older, Texas Counties, 2015
Sources: Texas Board of Nursing, 2016 and U.S. Census  Bureau, American Community Survey, Year Sample

40. Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2011
Data on this map about physicians licensed to practice in Texas are from the Texas Medical Board. Some rural counties do not have any practicing physicians. The more urban counties appear to have relatively high ratios of physicians to population aged 65+. This map does not provide information about the type/specialty of physicians.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census and Texas Medical Board (2011 physicians).

41. Percent of Civilian Labor Force by Occupation, Texas, 2008, 2014 and 2014-2008 Difference
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2008, 2010, 2014`

42. Estimates of health related workers in assisted living work settings
Estimates of health related workers in assisted living work settings*, Texas,
Nursing, Psychiatric, and Home Health Aides
154,265
52.9%
Registered Nurses
40,674
13.9%
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
36,951
12.7%
Medical and Health Services Managers
17,710
6.1%
Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics
8,442
2.9%
Clinical Laboratory Technologists and Technicians
6,482
2.2%
Diagnostic Related Technologists and Technicians
3,875
1.3%
Physical Therapists
3,510
1.2%
Speech Language Pathologists
2,488
0.9%
Physicians and Surgeons
2,395
0.8%
Occupational Therapists
2,086
0.7%
Other Health Occupations
12,859
4.4%
* Industry Codes: Home health care services, Other health care services, Nursing care facilities (skilled nursing facilities), Residential care facilities, except skilled nursing facilities
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample,

43. Adult Obesity
Source:

44. Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040
Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using migration scenario population projections

45. Obesity Prevalence
% adults with obesity: Office of the State Demographer, Projection

46. Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040

47. Diabetes Prevalence
% adults with diabetes: Office of the State Demographer, Projection

48. Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. Contact
State Demographer Office: (210) Internet: demographics.texas.gov
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
@TexasDemography
The Texas Demgraphic Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas.