1. Tipping Point Or More Of The Same?
Arizona Picks Up Some Steam
Presented to the
State Board of Equalization
June 21, 2016
George Hammond, Ph.D.
Director
Economic and Business Research Center

2. Visit the award-winning Arizona’s Economy
azeconomy.eller.arizona.edu

3. New features now available
New features now available! The Arizona’s Economy App Real-time data at your fingertips. .
Free at the Apple App Store and Google Play.
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4. Follow EBRC on Facebook and Twitter
@Eller_EBRC
facebook.com/Eller.EBRC
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5. Explore data for border economies. Arizona-Mexico Economic Indicators
azmex.eller.arizona.edu
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6. mapazdashboard.arizona.edu
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7. Our Game Plan Arizona’s job growth accelerated recently
Faster gains for both Phoenix and Tucson
Arizona and Phoenix jobs are above pre-recession levels
Federal procurement spending still falling
Arizona wage growth remains subdued
U.S. dollar is still elevated and gasoline prices are still low
U.S. growth accelerates in the near term
Arizona economy gains momentum
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8. Arizona Job Growth Over The Year
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9. Arizona Job Growth Over The Year, 2016Q1 +81,300 jobs +3.1%
Avg. Wages per Worker
$46,919 in 2014
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10. Job Replacement Rates Through April 2016 Percent
Percent of jobs lost during the
Great Recession that have been
replaced.
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11. Federal Procurement Spending
Arizona, Calendar Year
$Billions
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12. Arizona Wages Per Worker Nominal, Over-The-Year Growth Rates
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13. Official And Broadly Defined Rates
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Official And Broadly Defined Rates
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14. U.S. Dollar And Crude Oil Prices
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15. Arizona Merchandise Exports To Mexico
Nominal, Monthly Rate
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16. U.S. Real GDP And Job Growth
IHS Economics April 2016
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17. U.S. Interest Rates IHS Economics April 2016
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18. U.S. Housing Starts And Households
IHS Economics April 2016
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19. U.S. Dollar And Net Exports
IHS Economics April 2016
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20. Arizona And U.S. Job Growth
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21. Arizona Job Growth By Industry
Net Change:
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22. Arizona Population Components
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23. Voting With Their Feet
Estimating Relative Standards of Living with Cross-Migration Data
Domestic Migrants: Census 2000
186,151
WIN! +1
92,452
9,304
8,739
LOSS! -1
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24. Voting With Their Feet Census 1970 Migration Rank
1 - 10
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25. Voting With Their Feet Census 1980 Migration Rank
1 - 10
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26. Voting With Their Feet Census 1990 Migration Rank
1 - 10
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27. Voting With Their Feet Census 2000 Migration Rank
1 - 10
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28. Voting With Their Feet ACS Five-Year 2005-2009 Migration Rank
1 - 10
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29. Voting With Their Feet ACS One Year: 2010-2014 Migration Rank
1 - 10
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30. Arizona Housing Permits
Annual Data
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31. Arizona’s Income Gap Expands Percentage PCPI Gap With The U.S.
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32. The Risks Dismal productivity growth Spike in crude oil prices
Which drives a surge in costs/inflation
Spike in crude oil prices
Which contributes to faster inflation
Federal Reserve raises rates aggressively
Global growth falters
U.S. dollar surge, net exports drop
No increase in residential mobility
Fiscal policy shock
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33. Arizona Outlook Summary
University of Arizona / Eller College of Management