1. Economic Outlook 2016 Robert Carreira, Ph.D.
CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH
BISBEE
Economic Outlook 2016
Robert Carreira, Ph.D.

2. Real GDP Growth (%)
* US: Q1-3; AZ: Q1 only

3. Jobs United States Arizona Cochise County 138.4 mil 2.69 mil 39,300
Pre-Recession High
138.4 mil
(Jan 08)
2.69 mil
(Oct 07)
39,300
(Jun 08)
Recessionary Low
129.7 mil
(Feb 10)
2.37 mil
(Sep 10)
33,900
(Jul 13)
Recessionary Job Losses
-8.7 mil
-6.3%
-313,700
-11.7%
-5,400
-13.7%
Current *
145.0 mil
2.72 mil
34,200
From High
+6.5 million
4.7%
+31,400
1.2%
-5,100
-13.0%
From Low
+15.2 mil
11.7%
+345,100
14.5%
300
0.9%
* October 2016

4. Cochise County Jobs by Industry
Peak
Current
(Oct 2016)
Change from Peak
Change from Peak (%)
Construction and Mining
2,900
(Jun 2006)
1,200
-1,700
-58.6%
Manufacturing
900
(Oct 2008)
600
-300
-33.3%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
7,100
(Dec 2007)
6,000
-1,100
-15.5%
Information
700
(Mar 2011)
400
-42.9%
Financial Activities
1,100
(Dec 2008)
1,000
-100
-10.0%
Professional and Business Services
6,200
(Jan 2010)
3,800
-2,400
-38.7%
Educational and Health Services
5,800
(May 2016)
5,100
-700
-12.1%
Leisure and Hospitality
4,300
(Apr 2008)
-500
-11.6%
Other Services
(Mar 2006)
-45.5%
Federal Government
(Aug 2011)
4,800
-1,200
-20.0%
State and Local Government
7,700
(Jun 2008)
6,900
-800
-12.0%

5. Unemployment 4.4% 10.0% 5.0% 4.6% 3.7% 11.2% 6.1% 5.2% 3.5% 10.2% 7.0%
Pre-
Recession Low
Recessionary High
One Year Ago
Current*
United States
4.4%
(May 2007)
10.0%
(Oct 2009)
5.0%
4.6%
Arizona
3.7%
(Jul 2007)
11.2%
(Dec 2009)
6.1%
5.2%
Cochise County
3.5%
10.2%
(Jun 2011)
7.0%
5.9%
Bisbee
3.6%
9.7%
7.1%
6.0%
* US: November 2016; AZ: October 2016; Bisbee: December 2015 (Note: Cochise County and Bisbee not seasonally adjusted)

6. Local Labor Market Outlook
Upside
County beginning to see year-over-year job gains
Improving state and national economy = tourism
Countywide: Villages at Vigneto
Downside
Still at bottom—long way up
Wrap-up of Freeport-McMoRan activities

7. Retail Sales Growth (%)
Bisbee
Cochise County
Arizona
2016*
-8.9
-4.6
1.6
2015
-1.1
2.4
8.8
2014
-3.6
-1.0
1.9
2013
-2.3
1.5
7.3
2012
-4.5
4.5
2.5
2011
5.6
-1.2
7.1
2010
1.7
-4.8
-3.1
2009
-6.9
-4.2
-10.7
2008
-0.4
-6.5
-13.1
2007
3.4
-1.3
4.3
Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U *AZ & CC: Jan-Sep; Bisbee: Jan-Jul

8. Restaurant & Bar Sales Growth (%)
Bisbee
Cochise County
Arizona
2016*
-17.0
2.9
7.1
2015
8.3
3.9
5.1
2014
4.1
1.4
7.3
2013
-0.5
2.2
2012
13.6
-4.4
5.0
2011
-8.8
-0.2
2.1
2010
2.8
0.0
1.8
2009
-6.8
0.3
-5.4
2008
-0.6
0.2
-6.2
2007
-4.8
0.1
Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U *AZ & CC: Jan-Sep; Bisbee: Jan-Jul

9. Hotel/Motel Sales Growth (%)
Bisbee
Cochise County
Arizona
2016*
40.6
-4.6
1.6
2015
-0.7
8.2
12.2
2014
11.9
-0.6
9.9
2013
-10.8
-12.2
0.4
2012
5.6
-17.2
1.7
2011
-2.7
-13.1
2.0
2010
-13.2
8.3
0.8
2009
-27.3
-9.0
-16.5
2008
11.1
1.0
-8.4
2007
20.6
19.7
1.4
Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U *AZ & CC: Jan-Sep; Bisbee: Jan-Jul

10. Sales Outlook Retail Restaurant & Bar Hotel/Motel
Bisbee and Countywide: Continued weak performance
Restaurant & Bar
Bisbee: Slowdown from prior strong performance
Countywide: Modest growth
Hotel/Motel
Bisbee: Strong growth
Countywide: Continued weak performance

11. Home Sales

12. Median Home Price

13. Foreclosures (% of sales)

14. New Home Construction Cochise County

15. Real Estate & Construction Outlook
Foreclosures
Upward pressure on sales
Downward pressure on prices
Dampened demand for new construction
Population declines = downward pressure on sales & new construction
Bisbee: Potential new hotel & senior affordable housing
Countywide: Villages at Vigneto

16. Conclusion Recession Downside Upside
Kept out of recession by Fort Huachuca
Cochise County recession began in 2011
Downside
Population losses
Declining peso vs. dollar
Wrap-up of Freeport-McMoRan activities
Upside
Improving state and national economies will help tourism
Foreclosures and home values improving
Potential new hotel and affordable senior housing in Bisbee
Villages at Vigneto

17. THE END
CochiseEconomy.com