1. Volatility in ATM Taken by surprise?
Volatility in ATM
Taken by surprise?
World ATM Congress - FABEC OPS Theatre
Madrid, 6 March 2018
Dr. Bernd Tiemeyer
Head of Performance Review Unit (PRU)

2. Content & Objectives ‘Volatility’ in the ATM context
Different perspectives
Managing variability
Further discussion

3. ‘Volatility’ in the ATM context
Economics: measure of risk and opportunity
New term in the ATM context - clear definition?
Used to refer to changes in traffic demand
Due to varying causes and over varying time horizons
Political crises, airspace closures, weather phenomenon, changes in route charges, etc.
In ATM it addresses the level of variability of traffic demand in time and space - not a new phenomenon

4. Expectations of the ATM community (ICAO)
The global ATM system should exploit the inherent capacity to meet airspace user demands at peak times and locations while minimizing restrictions on traffic flow.
Global Air Traffic Management Operational Concept - ICAO Doc 9854

5. The economic view Source: draft PRR 2017 Data still provisional
* -1.1% if new methodology (REA) is applied as of April 2016

6. The service provider view
Source: draft PRR 2017

7. The service provider view
Source: draft PRR 2017
Source: draft PRR 2017

8. The airspace user view Source: draft PRR 2017

9. The airspace user view Source: draft PRR 2017 Source: draft PRR 2017

10. Managing variability Source: draft PRR 2017 Source: draft PRR 2017

11. Managing variability Source: PRU analysis based on NOP reports

12. What has changed ?
Why is variability in demand more of an issue today?
What makes management of capacity different today?
Why are we taken by surprise?