1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Outlook
Sept. 14, 2017
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
158.1
171.0
168.4
174.6
169.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,829
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,184
Beg. Stocks
821
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,350
Imports 36 32 67 55 50
Total Supply
14,686
15,479
15,401
16,940
16,585
Feed & Residual
5,040
5,280
5,120
5,425
5,475
Ethanol
5,124
5,200
5,224
5,435
Food, Seed, & Other
1,369
1,401
1,422
1,435
1,450
Exports
1,920
1,867
1,898
2,295
1,850
Total Use
13,454
13,748
13,664
14,590
14,250
Ending Stocks
2,335
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.35
3.20
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.4
89.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
47.5
48.0
52.1
49.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,307
4,431
Beg. Stocks
141 92
191
197
345
Imports 72 33 24 25
Total Supply
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,528
4,801
Crush
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,895
1,940
Seed & Residual
107
146
122
118
136
Exports
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,170
2,250
Total Use
3,478
3,862
3,944
4,183
4,326
Ending Stocks
475
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.50
9.20
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

5. Corn Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

6. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS 6 6

7. Soybean Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS 7 7

8. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. U.S. Meat Trade
Million pounds
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, EMI.

13. Source: Steve Meyer. Published in National Hog Farmer Magazine, July 27, 2017.

14. Source: USDA/AMS

15. U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Jun 2017
(Carcass Wt Basis)
Jun-17/May-17
Jun-17/Jun-16
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Japan
-15%
-7%
27,995 5%
Mexico
-8%
20%
176,550
25%
Canada
-13%
-11%
-2,631
-1%
South Korea
-19%
29%
72,110
33%
China (Mainland)
-25%
-37%
-73,926
Hong Kong
10% 2%
-11,410
-14%
Australia
16%
7,620 8%
Philippines 7%
9,335
27%
China (Taiwan)
-23%
46%
7,468
84%
Colombia
86%
37,967
88%
Honduras
-27%
-9%
1,019 3%
Dominican Republic
-35%
92%
20,887
57%
Guatemala
-22%
19%
-251
Chile
-28%
294%
22,946
188%
Other Countries
-18%
15,170
18%
Total 4%
310,850
12%
WASDE U.S.: 2016: 5,239 mil lbs : 5,753 (+10%) : 5,965 (+4%)
Source: USDA/ERS

16. LMIC Pork Production Quarterly Forecasts (8/13/17)
Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC

17. Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs

18. Year-over-Year Prices: Corn

19. Year-over-Year Prices: Soy Meal

20. 2013 = +$ [-$25.60 to +$24.57]
2014 = +$ [+$13.15 to +$107.25]
2015 = +$ [-$18.40 to +$26.25]
2016 = -$ [-$35.52 to +$32.92]
2017f = +$ [-$7.38 to +$47.62]
2018f = +$ [-$14.69 to +$24.62]

21. Data Source: USDA-NASS; Forecasts by LMIC

22. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

23. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC

24. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

25. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

26. Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC

27. Latest Data:
July 2017
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

28. Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle

29. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

30. Advance Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

31. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

32. Advance Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

33. Corn Grind for Ethanol

34. Current Corn Futures
3.94
3.56
Source: CME Group, 9/13/2017

35. Current Soybean Futures
9.66
9.54
Source: CME Group, 9/13/2017

36. 2017/18 Crop Margins

37. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

38. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

39. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: