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CLIMATE CHANGE Data Driven Analysis.

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Presentation on theme: "CLIMATE CHANGE Data Driven Analysis."— Presentation transcript:

1 CLIMATE CHANGE Data Driven Analysis

2 Earth’s Climate Has Undergone Many Changes
Warm Cold Icy Not icy How do they know past climates? Recent – data records Historic records – further into human history: droughts, floods, etc Paleoclimates – deduce from ‘proxies’: Ice cores, tree rings, coral growth, sediment deposits (CaCO3) Cambrian ‘explosion’ of life Today

3 Temps Vary, but the Trend is Clear: a Warming Atmosphere

4 Increasing Rates Of Warming
Compare line slope

5 Temperature is correlated with CO2
Year-by-year atmospheric CO2

6 Fossil fuel use > CO2 byproduct > Warming
Temperature Fossil Fuel use Lagged means 25 time lag (time for atmospheric build up)

7 Compounding factor: permafrost methane
Methane released as soil thaws from the atmosphere. Methane's lifetime in the atmosphere is much shorter than carbon dioxide (CO2), but CH4 is more efficient at trapping radiation than CO2. Pound for pound, the comparative impact of CH4 on climate change is over 20 times greater than CO2 Impact of CH4 is 20x that of CO2

8 Factoring in all predicted greenhouse
gas concentrations Same trend Different models The UN Climate Change Report (1/10)

9 well, not quite

10 RAMIFICATIONS OF WARMING

11 Warming Oceans 3 studies, same pattern healthy vs bleached reef

12 Reduced ice cover at the north pole

13 Corresponding change in sea level
Past 300 years 20th century

14 Warming Land Glaciers receding Earlier snow melt

15 Ocean Acidification CO2 + H2O -> carbonic acid

16 Ecosystem Change both habitat & biota
Alpine chipmunk Neotamias alpinus Grinnell resurvey project a century of change

17 Sixth Mass Extinction of Life on Earth
Golden Toad Incilius periglenes Grinnell resurvey project a century of change

18 Despite the evidence not all are convinced
• International consensus 130 nations • Scientific consensus 1250 scientists • Extensive studies 12,000 papers • Exhaustive peer review 90,000 comments U.S. Senator J. Imhofe, OK Environmental and Public Works Committee Author: The Greatest Hoax*: How the Global Warming Conspiracy Threatens Your Future. (2012) skeptical –> raise questions deny –> refuse The public debate around climate change is no longer about science—it’s about values, culture, and ideology. *a deliberately fabricated falsehood made to masquerade as truth. Gallup poll Imhofe is not alone Links Why? An explanation in the Stanford Social Review

19

20 How to proceed? Opposing claims: • Global warming • No global warming
Opposing actions: • act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions • take no action 1 3 4 2 Discuss/record on whiteboards the consequences of each pair on: • the environment • biodiversity • economies 1 3 2 4

21 http://www. livescience. com/common/media/video/player. php
(6 min) (6min) Look for more at How Stuff Works Sci Amer Frontiers (22 min)


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