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Food Balance Sheets FBS component: Tourist Food.

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Presentation on theme: "Food Balance Sheets FBS component: Tourist Food."— Presentation transcript:

1 Food Balance Sheets FBS component: Tourist Food

2 Learning Objectives At the end of this session, the audience will know: Different data sources for tourist food Recommended approach for estimating tourist food

3 Outline Definitions Data sources Imputation and Estimation

4 1 Definitions

5 Definition Tourist Food refers to food that is consumed by non-resident visitors to a given country during the course of their stay. This variable is expressed in net terms in the food balance sheets (as in, consumption of incoming tourists minus consumption of residents as tourists in other countries). Countries with negligible numbers of visitors may choose not to estimate Tourist Food as a separate FBS component. Instead, Tourist Food can be captured in other residual uses

6 Definition Why tourist food as separate category?
Estimating Tourist Food independently is encouraged for two reasons. 1st reason Data on tourist arrivals is widely accessible, such that it is possible for all countries to more specifically account for Tourist Food in their food balance sheets. 2nd reason For some countries—particularly Small Island States—large quantities of tourists relative to the resident population have the potential to substantially alter the balance sheet landscape

7 2 Data sources

8 National tourism offices:
Data sources Official data sources National tourism offices: it is likely that national tourism offices in each country will be the entity that publishes the most detailed information available on tourist arrivals and departures Through surveys: tourism boards may also publish figures on Tourist Food patterns, which would certainly aid FBS compilers in estimating Tourist Food within the balance sheets.

9 Data sources Alternative data sources
reports from the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO): If FBS compilers do not have ready access to their country’s data on tourist arrivals, they may instead consult reports from the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). This organization compiles and publishes member country-provided data on the number of visitors, average length of stay, and country of origin, as well as estimates on outbound tourism. See

10 Imputation and estimation
3 Imputation and estimation

11 Imputation and estimation
The approach to imputing Tourist Food is merely a calculation and not an econometric model. Net Tourist Food is simply the amount of food consumed by incoming tourists minus the amount of food that would have been consumed by residents had they been present in the country. NetTC=[#Incoming tourist days*Daily food consumed by tourists]- [#Outgoing tourist days*Daily food not consumed by residents] Comments of the formula: For each commodity, this amount can be calculated by first multiplying the number of tourist days by the average amount of that commodity consumed daily, and then subtracting from this value the product of the number of outgoing tourist days and the average amount of that commodity consumed daily

12 Imputation and estimation
Calculations calculation of the number of tourist days, N, for travelers originating from country l and visiting country j, 𝑁 𝑙𝑗 𝑵 𝒍𝒋 = 𝑵 𝑫𝒍𝒋 + 𝑵 𝑶𝒍𝒋 ∗ 𝑫 𝑁 𝐷𝑙𝑗 =the number of day visitors from l to j 𝑁 𝑂𝑙𝑗 =the number of overnight visitors from l to j 𝐷 =the average number of days an overnight visitor stayed Tourists visit country j both as day visitors and as overnight guests, and these visits must be standardized to give us a total number of tourist days. To do so, the number of day visitors from l to j, 𝑁 𝐷𝑙𝑗 , is added to the number of overnight visitors from l to j, 𝑁 𝑂𝑙𝑗 , multiplied by the average number of days an overnight visitor stayed, 𝐷

13 Imputation and estimation
Simplified representation of net tourism in Country J How to calculate net tourism consumption in this three-country scenario? K L J Flow of country j’s residents travel to visit country k, 𝑵 𝒋𝒌 Flow of tourists from country l visit country j, 𝑵 𝒍𝒋

14 Imputation and estimation
In this three-country scenario, for any individual commodity i, net Tourist Food for country j (NetTCij) is given by: 𝑁𝑒𝑡𝑇𝐶 𝑖𝑗 = 𝐹𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑖𝑙𝑗 − 𝐹𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑖𝑗𝑘 𝑭𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒊𝒍𝒋 =The amounts of food consumed by tourists in MT for incoming tourists 𝑭𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒊𝒋𝒌 = The amounts of food consumed by tourists in MT for outgoing tourists How to calculate 𝑭𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒊𝒍𝒋 and 𝑭𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒊𝒋𝒌 ? In this three-country scenario, for any individual commodity i, net Tourist Food for country j (NetTCij) can be represented as the amount of food (in MT) that incoming tourists from l to j eat in country j, Foodilj, minus the amount of food that tourists from country j are eating in country k, Foodijk

15 Imputation and estimation
How to calculate 𝑭𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒊𝒍𝒋 and 𝑭𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒊𝒋𝒌 ? The amounts of food consumed by tourists in MT (Foodilj or Foodijk ) is calculated as the product of the amount of tourist-days N and the number of calories consumed daily, divided by the amount of calories per MT for commodity I But according to assumptions relative to incoming tourists ,formula of Foodilj or Foodijk differ

16 Imputation and estimation
C𝐚𝐥𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝑭𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒊𝒍𝒋 Assumptions Tourists will eat local foods, but at a scale that accounts for their own typical daily caloric consumption Tourists are limited in their food choices to what is on offer locally Tourists are limited in their food choices to what is on offer locally tourists are likely to consume the same overall amount of food that they would eat at home

17 Imputation and estimation
C𝐚𝐥𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝑭𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒊𝒍𝒋 Formula 𝑭𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒊𝒍𝒋 = 𝑵 𝒍𝒋 ∗ 𝒇 𝒊𝒋 ∗ 𝒊 𝒇 𝒊𝒍 𝒊 𝒇 𝒊𝒋 𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝒊 𝑴𝑻 Nlj =the number of tourist-days for tourists traveling from country l to country j, fij =the amount of calories of commodity i consumed in country j, 𝑖 𝑓 𝑖𝑙 𝑖 𝑓 𝑖𝑗 =relative amount of total calories consumed historically in country l compared to country j, 𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑖 𝑀𝑇 is the number of calories contained in one MT of commodity i Country-level analysts should define for themselves what “historically” means, but two suggests are 1) consumption level in the previous year, or 2) average consumption over the previous three years.

18 Imputation and estimation
C𝐚𝐥𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝑭𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒊𝒋𝒌 purpose of accounting for outbound tourists is to subtract what they would have eaten at home…not to detail exactly what they will eat while abroad No scaling factor 𝑖 𝑓 𝑖𝑙 𝑖 𝑓 𝑖𝑗 Formula 𝑭𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒊𝒋𝒌 = ( 𝑵 𝒋𝒌 ∗ 𝒇 𝒊𝒋 ) 𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝒊 𝑴𝑻 Njk =the number of tourist-days for country j’s residents travel to visit country k, fij =the amount of calories of commodity i consumed in country j, 𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑖 𝑀𝑇 is the number of calories contained in one MT of commodity i

19 Imputation and estimation
Comprehensive representation of net tourism flows for country J O L J P N K M World At the same time that country j is receiving tourists from the rest of the countries in the world, it is also potentially sending tourists out to these same countries. So in comprehensively representing net tourism, country-level FBS compilers must account for multiple inbound tourist flows (orange arrows), and multiple outbound tourist flows (green arrows)

20 Imputation and estimation
net Tourist Food for country j (NetTCij) for any individual commodity i 𝑵𝒆𝒕𝑻𝑪 𝒊𝒋 = 𝒍=𝟏, 𝒍≠𝒋 𝒙 𝑵 𝒍𝒋 ∗ 𝒇 𝒊𝒋 ∗ 𝒊 𝒇 𝒊𝒍 𝒊 𝒇 𝒊𝒋 𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝒊 𝑴𝑻 − 𝒌=𝟏,𝒌≠𝒋 𝒙 𝑵 𝒋𝒌 ∗ 𝒇 𝒊𝒋 𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝒊 𝑴𝑻 Food consumed by incoming tourists Food consumed by outgoing tourists

21 Imputation and estimation
Exercise FBS compilers in country j are estimating inbound Tourist Food of beer of barley. Let’s assume that country j is the relatively poorer country with daily DES of 2,000 kcal/cap/day ( 𝑖 𝑓 𝑖𝑗 ), and country l is the wealthy country where DES ( 𝑖 𝑓 𝑖𝑙 ) is 3,500 kcal/cap/day. Tourists from Country l spend 50,000 tourist-days in country j in the reference period. In addition, in country j, daily consumption of beer of barley, f, is 25 kcal/cap/day, and consulting a calorie conversion table, they find that there are approximately 430 calories per kilogram of beer of barley—equivalent to 430,000 calories per MT of beer of barley. Using this information, compute the daily calories of beer of barley consumed by tourists from country l to country j ?

22 Imputation and estimation
Correction C𝐚𝐥𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝑭𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒊𝒍𝒋 Formula 𝑭𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒊𝒍𝒋 = 𝑵 𝒍𝒋 ∗ 𝒇 𝒊𝒋 ∗ 𝒊 𝒇 𝒊𝒍 𝒊 𝒇 𝒊𝒋 𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝒊 𝑴𝑻 Nlj =the number of tourist-days for tourists traveling from country l to country j, fij =the amount of calories of commodity i consumed in country j, 𝑖 𝑓 𝑖𝑙 𝑖 𝑓 𝑖𝑗 =relative amount of total calories consumed historically in country l compared to country j, 𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑖 𝑀𝑇 is the number of calories contained in one MT of commodity i Country-level analysts should define for themselves what “historically” means, but two suggests are 1) consumption level in the previous year, or 2) average consumption over the previous three years.

23 Imputation and estimation
Correction 𝑖 𝑓 𝑖𝑗 =2,000 kcal/cap/day 𝑖 𝑓 𝑖𝑙 =3,500 kcal/cap/day. Nlj = 50,000 fij = 25 kcal/cap/day 𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑖 𝑀𝑇 =430,000 𝐹𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑏𝑒𝑒𝑟𝑙𝑗 = 𝑁 𝑙𝑗 ∗ 𝑓 𝑏𝑒𝑒𝑟𝑗 ∗ 𝑖 𝑓 𝑖𝑙 𝑖 𝑓 𝑖𝑗 𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑏𝑒𝑒𝑟 𝑀𝑇 𝐹𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑏𝑒𝑒𝑟𝑙𝑗 = 50,000∗ 25∗ 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 430,000 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑀𝑇 - 𝑭𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒃𝒆𝒆𝒓𝒍𝒋 = 5.09 MT/Year

24 References 3rd chapter of the guideline: ‘Data for FBS compilation: considerations, sources and imputation’, Tourist Food Appendix 1: Tourist Food

25 Thank You


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