1. What the Research Says
2017 Fall ACOVA

2. Turn to your shoulder partner and share.
Bell work
What is the one education topic that Betsy DeVos, Randi Weingarten, Donald Trump and Al Franken all “support?”
Turn to your shoulder partner and share.
The answer is CTE. Of course, the President’s budget actually cuts CTE funding, but he has spoken openly about his support for CTE and praised the German approach to vocational education.

3. Fear, jubilation, hope, challenge, relief
This presentation will take you through a variety of emotions comparable to raising a child. The fear prior to their birth that you don’t know what you have gotten yourself into. The jubilation associated with a new born baby. The hope that they’ll grow up to be well mannered, contributing members of our society. The challenges associated as they mature into teenagers. The relief when they finally become independent adults.

4. Let’s embrace fear
Economic realities

5. The new (and not so new) challenge: children living in poverty

6. The Social mobility escalator is broken
For the first time in 50 years, a majority of U.S. public school students come from low income families.
The Washington Post: The Majority of U.S. Public School Students Live in Poverty.
CTE can fix the “mobility escalator”

8. Labor Force by Age
Slide courtesy of Dan Jesse, Senior Research Associate, RMC Research Corporation
As you can see, the participation rate for persons aged 16 to 24 has dropped substantially since 2000, while participation of those persons 65 and older has increased. Labor force participation has dropped more than any other group in the population.

9. Disconnected Youth-Ages 16-24: 2016
Slide courtesy of Dan Jesse, Senior Research Associate, RMC Research Corporation
Source: Opportunity Nation Young People not in School and Not working. (% ages 16-24). Retrieved from Add the west average 13.5% on this same chart.
Source: Opportunity Nation, 2016

10. Economic Trends
Young Adults are falling Behind: Youth Labor Force Participation has been falling, and roughly one-out-of-seven youth (16-24) are not in school or at work.
Proliferation of Low Paid Jobs: Of the ten occupations that will create the most jobs in the West, nine pay less than $33,000 a year.
Education is Critical: Those with a high school degree or less have lost millions of jobs since Job gains have gone to those with at least some post-secondary education.
Slide courtesy of Dan Jesse, Senior Research Associate, RMC Research Corporation

11. Are you frightened yet?
If not, turn to your neighbor and talk about the state of American politics

12. Which statistics stood out for you?
Turn to your shoulder partner and share Be prepared to share with the group

13. If you still aren’t frightened, let me help
Some realities about higher education

14. College for all? 68% start college Only 40% complete college
53% of grads are unemployed or underemployed
Student loan debt now exceeds auto loans, credit card balances and home-equity loan debt … $1.3 trillion
Wyman, Nicholas. Why We Desperately Need to Bring Back Vocational Training In Schools. Forbes.
37% of college grads are currently employed doing work for which on a high school diploma is required. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015
The six-year graduation rate for four-year colleges is 60%. The three year graduation rate for community colleges is 22%. Source: Source: “Trump’s Non-Celebrity Apprentices, Wall Street Journal. June 19, 2017.
Report after report from American Enterprise Institute (2017) to Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce to the Community College Research Center all argue that we must look past our “fixation” on the bachelor’s degree (U.S. Education Needs to Move Past its ‘Fixationon the Bachelor’s Degree.’ High School and Beyond. Education Week,

15. The Opportunity
Jubilation?

16. Job Growth Through 2020
Notwithstanding failure to resolve the federal government’s budgetary challenges, the U.S. economy will grow from 140 million to 165 million jobs by 2020
There will be 55 million job openings in the economy through 2020: 24 million openings from newly created jobs and 31 million openings due to baby boomer retirements.
Source: Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements Through Anthony P. Carnevale, Nicole Smith, Jeff Strohl, Georgetown University. June 2013.
Careertech.org reports: “Those jobs that require more than a high school diploma but less than a four-year degree account for 54% of U. S. labor market, but only 44% of the country’s workers are trained at that level.” Original source: skillscoalition.org/resources/publications/file/middle-skill-fact-sheets-2014/NSC-United-States-MiddleSkillFS-2014pdf

17. Job Growth Through 2020
Job openings in healthcare, community services and STEM will grow the fastest among occupational clusters.
By 2020, 65% of all jobs in the economy will require postsecondary education and training beyond high school. (Don’t forget how much of high school CTE earns dual enrollment.)
By educational attainment:
35% of job openings will require at least a bachelor’s degree
30% of the job openings will require some college or an associate’s degree
36% of the job openings will not require education beyond high school
Source: Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements Through Anthony P. Carnevale, Nicole Smith, Jeff Strohl, Georgetown University. June 2013.
Careertech.org reports: “Those jobs that require more than a high school diploma but less than a four-year degree account for 54% of U. S. labor market, but only 44% of the country’s workers are trained at that level.” Original source: skillscoalition.org/resources/publications/file/middle-skill-fact-sheets-2014/NSC-United-States-MiddleSkillFS-2014pdf

18. A look at the economy
47% of all new jobs are middle skills jobs
48% of current labor force are middle skill jobs
86% of companies have experienced labor shortages….up from 53% in 2013
Source: Harvard Business Review
Who Can Fix the Middle-Skills Gap? January 2015
Harvard Business Review, Kochan, Finegold and Osterman: Who Can Fix the Middle Skills Gap?
Who Can Fix the “Middle-Skills” Gap?
See also: Why Job Growth Remains Mushy in the Middle After the Recession—NBC News. August 14, 2015.
Middle-skills jobs—called by some New Collar jobs.
We have a new “skills-based” concept gaining momentum. Skills are being emphasized over traditional hiring filters like college degrees, work history and personal references. In June 2017 concept received strong corporate support from Microsoft which announced a grant of more than $25 million to help Skillful, a program to foster skills-oriented hiring, training and education. Effort is led by Markle foundation.

19. The Hope
CTE to the rescue

20. CTE works!
It is learning that works

21. Engagement
Getting kids to school and graduating on time

22. On the Rise ASU Morrison Institute for Public Policy
The analysis of data from Tucson Unified School District and Mesa Public Schools found:
The hazard of dropping out was reduced by 70% for Mesa students and 50% for Tucson students who had taken 2 or more CTE courses
Taking two or more CTE courses reduced absenteeism by 3 days for CTE students in Tucson.
Compared to students who shared the same socio- economic and academic characteristics but
did not take CTE
Source: On The Rise report, 
This is current Arizona data based on an independent study that shows a direct correlation between CTE participation and a dramatic reduction in dropout rates in the two largest districts in the state. Please note that Tucson Unified Data included no central campus students. Mesa data does include both Central and Satellite students.

23. 2015-16 Arizona CTE Concentrator
Four year graduation rate is 99%
Arizona Department of Education CTE Data Snapshot, February 2016

24. Achievement

25. The data on the impact of CTE on achievement are mixed
The data on the impact of CTE on achievement are mixed. Students who participate in CTE programs of study definitely outperform peers. CTE students enrolled in science or STEM-centric fields of study—including agriculture, IT and engineering technology scored at and above average on the 12th grade NAEP. In fact, the highest 12th grade NAEP scores in science were actually earned by CTE concentrators in agriculture, IT and engineering technology (
In Indiana, CTE concentrators scored 10 percentage points higher on state Algebra exams when compared to all students. Source:

26. Transition
Sending them on to worthy post secondary destinations

27. Transition
78% of CTE concentrators enroll in postsecondary education, full time, within two years of graduation
About one third of all dual enrollment credits—about 600,000 in all—are earned in CTE courses
84% of adult CTE concentrators went from CTE study to further education or employment within six months of completing their program
Source: Careertech
Sources:
Final Report2014pdf

29. Fordham University report on CTE--2016
Students with greater exposure to CTE are more likely to graduate from high school, enroll in a two-year college, be employed, and earn higher wages.
CTE is not a path away from college: Students taking more CTE classes are just as likely to pursue a four-year degree as their peers.
Students who focus their CTE coursework are more likely to graduate high school by twenty-one percentage points compared to otherwise similar students (and they see a positive impact on other outcomes as well).
Source: Dougherty, Shaun M. Career and Technical Education in High School: Does it Improve Student Outcomes. Thomas Fordham Institute. April 2016
CTE provides the greatest boost to the kids who need it most—boys, and students from low-income families.

30. Any surprises or insights?
Turn to your shoulder partner and share. Be prepared to share with the group.

31. The Challenge
Like we needed more!

32. Quality delivery system
Do your CTE programs all include:
Quality classroom instruction?
Quality laboratory instruction?
Work-based learning?
Personal and leadership development through CTSOs?

33. Industry Credentials
Do students obtain industry credentials through your CTE programs?
49th Annual Phi Delta Kappan Poll of Public's Attitudes Toward the Public Schools: 86% want certificate programs that qualify students for employment; 82% want career skills classes even if it means less “academic” time; 80% want classes in technology and engineering.

34. Complete program sequence
Are students able to complete the total sequence in your CTE programs?

35. Exploration
Do you encourage students to explore CTE programs?

36. Career Development
Does your school district employ a true system of career development:
Career awareness—K-6
Career exploration—7-9
Career preparation—9-12
Career management—12+
Do all your students have meaningful ECAPs?

37. How are you doing in your district?
Turn to your shoulder partner and share. Be prepared to share with the group.

38. Suggested Reading:
Doughtery, Shaun. “Career and Technical Education in High School: Does It Improve Student Outcomes.” Fordham. April 2016.
Catellano, Sundell and Richardson. “Achievement Outcomes Among High School Graudates in College and Career Readiness Programs of Study.” Peabody Journal of Education. Volume 92, Issue 2
Stringfield and Stone. “The Labor Market Imperative for CTE: Changes and Challenges for the 21st Century.” Peabody Journal of Education. Volume 92, Issue 2.
Stone. “Introduction to Pathways to a Productive Adulthood: The Role of CTE in the American High School.” Peabody Journal of Education. Volume 92, Issue 2.
Carnevale, Smith and Strohl. Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements Through Georgetown University Public Policy Institute

39. Need more information? For more CTE research visit:
The CTE Research Clearinghouse at
National Association of State Directors of CTE Consortium
The National Research Center for CTE at
Association for Career and Technical Education

40. The Relief
It’s over!

41. The end
It’s over. Now, that didn’t hurt too much, did it?