1. 2012 ITE Annual Conference Allen Nie, PhD, PE, HMM June 24 -27, Santa Barbara, CA SR 46 Improvement PSR/PDS Study

2. Presentation Outline Background Improvement Alternatives Traffic Modeling Traffic Operations Analysis Project Status Lessons Learned

3. Project Location – Paso Robles Cambria Wasco

4. SR 46 E in Paso Robles

5. Past Studies SR 46 E Comprehensive Traffic Survey, 2005 Golden Hill Retail Center TIA, 2007 State Route 46 E Parallel Routes Study, 2008 SR 46 E Comprehensive Corridor Study, 2009 Paso Robles General Plan Update, 2011

6. Existing Intersection & Mainline LOS

7. 2025 Intersection & Mainline LOS

8. Delays Source: Caltrans SR 46 E CCS

9. Paso Robles Land Use

10. Traffic Issues – Local Perspective S

11. Improvements along SR 46 LocationImprovementStatus US 101/SR 46 SB Ramps Add WBL and EBT lanesIn construction, to be completed in 2014 US 101 / SR 46 NB Ramps Add WBT lanesTo be completed by CT in the future SR 46 / Golden Hill RdRestriping, add left turn lanes on all approaches; widen northbound approach to Completed SR 46 E / Airport RdWiden SR 46 to 4 lanes from Airport Rd to Shandon Completed SR 46 / Union RdTBD by this studyPSR

12. The PSR Project Team

13. Alignment Alternatives ALT 1 –Two-way Stop-controlled (No Build) ALT 2 – Signalization ALT 3 – Roundabout (West) ALT 4 – Roundabout (East) ALT 5 – Overcrossing ALT 6 – Interchange

14. ALT 4 – Roundabout (East)

15. ALT 6 – Interchange

16. Caltrans Responsibility Maintain / Increase Hwy 46 throughput Reduce travel delay Traffic controls (signal) Congestion (queue spillovers, weaving issues, etc) Improve travel time reliability Multimodal and safety Vision - grade separation, limited # of access points

17. Citys Expectation Easy access to Highway 46 and US 101 Better & reliable connectivity Support multimodal transportation (bike & Ped) Fit into the Citys Circulation Master Plan Cost concerns Phased development

18. Citys Circulation Master Plan

19. Work Process Kickoff Meeting Traffic Modeling Operational Analysis Alternative Assessment Project Management and QA/QC Project Management and QA/QC Traffic Data Field Survey Alternative Development

20. City of Paso Robles Traffic Model City model based on the SLOCOG county model Three-step highway model Feedback loop Detailed GIS roadway network Horizon years modeled 2008 2030

21. Traffic Model Enhancement Post- processing

22. Model Enhancement Study Area City Area The rest

23. Day of Week Fluctuation Highway 46 Vs. Local Arterial

24. Traffic Model Calibration ComparisonCoefficient (slope)R^2Intercept Before Calibration AM Peak1.160.8465 PM Peak1.340.8986 After Calibration AM Peak0.99 3 PM Peak0.99 3 Comparison% (GEH <5) Before Calibration AM Peak50% PM Peak53% After Calibration AM Peak100% PM Peak100% Before Model CalibrationAfter Model Calibration

25. GEH Statistics (Before) (After) Traffic Simulation Criteria: 85% (GEH < 5)

26. Seasonal Fluctuation

27. Ramifications of Traffic Fluctuation Data Collection Use of old counts – consistency issue Model Calibration which month? Previous studies failed to consider this Traffic operations Worst or average Design For the worst?

28. Traffic Operations Analysis Intersections Signalized Stop-controlled Roundabout Hwy 46 multilane highway Hwy 46 Weaving Simulation (optional)

29. Finalized Study Scenarios & Elements

30. Preliminary Results: 2016 No Build

31. Performance Comparison To be updated!

32. Project Status Data Collection - done Alignment Alternative - 90% Model Development & Calibration - Approved Traffic Forecast – 85% Traffic Operations Analysis – 25% Overall project - Ahead of schedule

33. Challenges & Lessons Learned Data Collection Seasonal & day of week fluctuation Timing / consistency Always validate your data Scenarios Management Communication Work closely with all stokeholds Consensus Building Use your traffic model

34. Thank you! Questions & Answers

35. Hatch Mott MacDonald Allen Nie, PhD, PE Tel: 925.469.8016 allen.nie@hatchmott.com Richard Davis, VP Tel: 925.469.5356 richard.davis@hatchmott.com 4301 Hacienda Dr., Suite 300 Pleasanton, CA 94588 Fax: 925.469.8011 www.hatchmott.com

36. Stop right here

37. City Zoning

38. Project Development Process Caltrans

39. Project Study Report Initial document of the project Include Scoping of the physical work Budget and schedule to deliver the project Define the needs and purpose Timeframe 6 months to 12 months

40. Draft Project Report A decision making document Document the need for a project Summarize Key points from the Draft Env. Doc The studies of the scope, cost Overall impact of alternatives Help make informal decision whether to proceed to the public hearing phase of the project

41. ALT 1 – Two-way Stop-controlled (No Build)

42. ALT 2 – Signalization

43. ALT 3 – Roundabout West

44. ALT 5 – Overcrossing

45. Future Year O-D Calculation The Difference Method

46. Half Clover Leaf Interchange

47. Roundabout Alternative

48. Background

49. The Consideration of Recession People are talking about it Not enough data to fully measure the impact on traffic level in the project study area Would be a decision from the City and Caltrans To consider it at all? Which growth pattern to choose?

50. The Impact of Recession 1 2 3 4 5 Legend Line 1: w/o recession Lines 2 - 5: w/ recession

51. Traffic Modeling Task Forecast future year traffic 2016, 2020, 2025, 2035 Forecast traffic under different alignment alternatives Traffic assignment Explore traffic circulation pattern to support traffic operations analysis E.g. weaving analysis Support alternative development

52. Model Validation Supply side Link attributes Network coding Turn penalties Demand side Land use consolidation (type, quantity) Zone disaggregation Trip rates review

53. Additional Model Improvement & Testing Upgrade to TransCAD 5.0 Additional tools in GISDK for OD operations Sensitivity testing in the project area Through trip assessment (select link analysis) Trip patterns (select link / zone analysis)