1. The Science Budget in 2018: Update and Outlook
Matt Hourihan
June 8, 2018
For McAllister & Quinn Client Workshop
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program

4. What is going on here?
Checks and balances in the U.S. budget process are real and meaningful
U.S. Congress has considerable power in setting annual budgets, and a presidential budget typically only matters as much as Congress lets it
“The President proposes, the Congress disposes”
In the big picture, Congress has pushed back on unpopular spending cuts and has created the fiscal room to increase research spending – as it often does when it’s able

5. Elements in recent play:
The Budget Deal (the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018). Which leads into…
FY 2018 omnibus – good year for research!
FY 2019 budget and appropriations outlook

11. But Congress did not go along with these changes…
Senate rules: need 60 votes to change the caps
That gives minority Democrats a measure of power, and thus mandates deal-making
(same story with individual spending bills)
Defense hawks: wanted to see bigger increases for defense spending; accepted nondefense increases to get it
Moderate Republicans: not in favor of harsh fiscal choices, or otherwise are “Senate realists”
"This is once again an act of Senate denial," Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA), on talks to get Defense spending through alone
Fiscal conservatives: revolted against budget deal, but didn’t have votes to stop it
Ultimately…

14. Some Factors That Bear on Research Appropriations
Congressional committees frequently fund research when they’ve got the fiscal room to do so
“All politics is local”
Jobs
Outreach by constituents
Personal legislator interests
Values and party ideology
Appropriate role of government versus appropriate role of industry
Conflict over regulation/climate
Balance and tradeoffs: need to achieve a bill that attracts sufficient votes

16. FY 2018 Omnibus Notes Adopted last March
~11% increase for research spending
Largest in 15 years
All-time high for research and total R&D
Emergent priorities:
Exascale computing; fusion research; user facilities
Weather research
Defense materials and manufacturing
NIH initiatives including opioids
NASA: planetary science and exploration
Several energy programs saved/boosted
Competitive agricultural research grants
Natural hazards research and monitoring
Climate research, manufacturing programs protected
Gun violence research permitted
More than $3 billion for opioids research, surveillance, response (CDC, NIH, SAMHSA, Justice, FDA, etc)
Also modest increases for NEH, NEA

21. Quick Notes on FY19 Proposed Budget
NIH: Consolidates AHRQ, NIOSH, NIDILRR to bring NIH to 30 institutes; $750m for opioids research
Salary capped at 90%, lowered to $152k from $187k
DOE: Another big increase for exascale computing
Technology: ARPA-E terminated (again), deep cuts for efficiency and renewables (again); small modular reactors, advanced coal
NSF: research cut 3%; two vessels instead of three; “10 Big Ideas”
Success rate, awards to drop; social science targeted
NASA: WFIRST terminated, Science cut by 5% (especially Earth Science); moon projects and commercial space
USDA: Pretty much everything would be reduced at least somewhat; several lab closures
Multiple agencies: Climate and environment broadly targeted
Coming soon: the return of trillion-dollar deficits?

22. Quick Notes on FY19 Proposed Budget
NIH: Consolidates AHRQ, NIOSH, NIDILRR to bring NIH to 30 institutes; $750m for opioids research
Salary capped at 90%, lowered to $152k from $187k
DOE: Another big increase for exascale computing
Technology: ARPA-E terminated (again), deep cuts for efficiency and renewables (again); small modular reactors, advanced coal
NSF: research cut 3%; two vessels instead of three; “10 Big Ideas”
Success rate, awards to drop; social science targeted
NASA: WFIRST terminated, Science cut by 5% (especially Earth Science); moon projects and commercial space
USDA: Pretty much everything would be reduced at least somewhat; several lab closures
Multiple agencies: Climate and environment broadly targeted
Coming soon: the return of trillion-dollar deficits?
How much does all this matter?

23. Commerce, Justice, Science Subcommittee
House
Senate
Chair
John Culberson (TX)
Jerry Moran (KS)
Ranking Member
Jose Serrano (NY)
Jeanne Shaheen (NH)
National Science Foundation: many value basic research, education, universities
So far: +5% in House
NASA: recent priority
Again: labs and research centers help
Earth science remains a point of controversy
So far: +4% in House; larger for Science (especially Planetary), Exploration programs
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST):
Very different missions and controversies, but they do have their supporters
NOAA: Sea Grant; weather, ocean, climate research
NIST: lab programs, measurement science, manufacturing, cybersecurity, quantum science, etc
So far: in House, cuts for climate grants and manufacturing programs, but other activities protected

24. Labor, HHS, Education Subcommittee
House
Senate
Chair
Tom Cole (OK)
Roy Blunt (MO)
Ranking Member
Rosa DeLauro (CT)
Patty Murray (WA)
Deep divisions over public health programs, education, labor
But everybody loves NIH!
Multiple years of multibillion dollar increases
Likely another $1 billion+ increase in FY 2019
Recent priorities:
Alzheimer’s
Cancer
Opioids
Precision medicine
Brain mapping
Universities, industry, patient advocates
Other programs also have their supporters (BioShield, BARDA, CDC, etc)

25. Energy & Water Subcommittee
House
Senate
Chair
Mike Simpson (ID)
Lamar Alexander (TN)
Ranking Member
Marcy Kaptur (OH)
Dianne Feinstein (CA)
Tradeoffs: Balancing basic research, national labs, technology portfolio, nuclear defense, water infrastructure spending
National Nuclear Security Administration (manages U.S. weapons stockpile) has been biggest priority of late
Office of Science: as basic physical science arm, historically supported
Big increases in FY18 and FY19 (so far)
National labs help
Advanced computing has become major shared priority
Technology programs: Congress tends to fund when able, but can also be on the chopping block when tough choices are necessary
House ideology vs. Senate moderation?
Mixed numbers in both chambers so far
Regional energy politics and economics

26. Where Are We Headed? Some modest spending growth is likely in FY19
Won’t be finalized until late fall given midterms? Or later?
FY 2020 and 2021: cap negotiations one more time
Who controls Congress next year?
Will widening deficit impact the negotiations?
Next U.S. presidential election in 2020
How likely is it that the discretionary budget – and thus, research spending – keeps growing?
Bottom line: federal science spending does not appear to be on its way down, and the prospects of the Trump Administration severely curtailing research dollars do not appear strong…
Classic conflicts over environmental research and industrial technology will likely continue, however

27. ????

28. The Case of ARPA-E: A Cautionary Tale
Context: the Impoundment Control Act (1974) requires executive branch to spend money allocated by Congress
March 2017: Trump Administration proposes killing the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), a DARPA-model energy research and innovation agency
April 2017: Politico reports that Trump Admin has frozen millions in ARPA-E funding, affecting several awards and prompting Congressional backlash
May 2017: notifications for research awards resume, and eventually all funding is released
December 2017: U.S. Government Accountability Office, an independent federal agency, finds that Dept. of Energy violated the Impoundment Control Act
2018: Congress continues to scrutinize Administration spending practices and “encourage” agencies to spend the money they’re given…

31. mhouriha@aaas.org 202-326-6607 http://www.aaas.org/rd
For more info…