1. Climate Change and Food Security
Adapting to Climate Change
City of Rossland
May 11, 2010

2. Food Security
“A community enjoys food security when all people, at all times, have access to nutritious, safe, personally acceptable and culturally appropriate foods, produced in ways that are environmentally and socially just.”
Four Dimensions to food security:
Food availability
Food accessibility
Food stability
Food utilization

3. Food Systems
Food Security must be considered through a Food Systems Lens, which includes:
food production
food processing and packaging
food distribution and retailing and
food consumption
Food systems are highly complex and globalized - in assessing climate change and food security it is not sufficient to analyze domestic production

4. Climate Change and Food Security
Types of impacts - climate change will likely have:
Direct impacts - on plant and animal growth and food processing and distribution networks
Indirect impacts - on social, economic and political structures
Timing of impacts
Some now, some later
Some gradual, some sudden
Certainty of impacts
Models are highly uncertain

5. Direct Impacts of Climate Change
Increased CO2 Concentrations in Atmosphere
CO2 fertilization effect may increase crop productivity
Ocean productivity could decline due to acidification
Higher Temperatures
Longer growing seasons and increased productivity in high latitudes as long as temperature increases do not exceed 3°
Crop losses and declines in productivity in low latitudes
Unpredictable effects in lakes and oceans
Less winter kill but increased thermal stress for livestock
Possible disruption of transportation lines due to wildfires

6. Direct Impacts of Climate Change (continued)
Changes in Precipitation
Reduction in arable land in areas with decreased precipitation
Challenges capturing water in areas with increased or unchanged precipitation
Declines in aquaculture in areas of decreased precipitation
Pests and Diseases
Little knowledge at this point
Earlier spring activity, greater winter survival, and expansion of ranges

7. Direct Impacts of Climate Change (continued)
Extreme Events
Crop failure or reduced yields
Livestock death
Disruption of transportation lines
Rising Sea Levels
Elimination and salinization of arable land in some coastal regions

8. Direct Impacts of Climate Change - Overall
Global agricultural production not expected to decline as long as temperature increases do not exceed 3º
Significant regional shifts in food production will likely negatively affect developing countries

9. Flaws in the Analysis This analysis does not adequately account for:
Indirect effects on social, economic and political structures
Non-linear effects or tipping points
Climate change temperature increases beyond 3º
A major increase in extreme events
Non-climate change related events and factors

10. Regional Food Self-Sufficiency
BC:
5% of landbase suitable for growing crops
Produces 48% of food
RDKB and RDCK:
117,367 ha of ALR land
80,589 ha in farms
No land class information available but 2/3s considered good
18,027 ha currently in crops
Produces less than 48% of food (best guess)

11. Regional Food Self-Sufficiency (continued)
Land required to grow enough food:
0.5 ha per person per year (Canada Food Guide)
0.2 ha per person per year (Less meat-centred diet)
Amount needed in RDKB and RDCK based on 2006 population:
45,392 ha
4540 ha would have to be irrigated

12. Regional Food Self-Sufficiency (continued)
Challenges:
Climate change and non-climate change impacts
No incentives for new producers/de-skilled population
Limited processing and distribution infrastructure
Barriers to developing processing and distribution infrastructure
Unclear how much land is irrigated or could be irrigated
Land class information is needed
Some products could not be produced here
Seasonality of growing would be a problem