1. Open Class Sujet du Jour
Optional/Open Class Sessions
* Discuss, Review, Critique - Class Lectures, Presentations & Assignments
* Explore Additional Topics, Domains, Concepts & Technologies...
这是中国人
Open Class Sujet du Jour
Section (I) To Date
Sept.12 -  Meet the Futurists...
... Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard
Sept.19 - Deep Dive into Disruption...
Clayton Christensen: Disruptive innovation
Disruptive technologies: AI and the future of marketing technology
Anticipating & Leading Market Disruption-Tony Seba

3. Lou Pritchet Senior VP, Procter & Gamble
“When the rate of change outside your company exceeds the rate of change inside your company, disaster is imminent”
Lou Pritchet Senior VP, Procter & Gamble
One thing I’ve learned about data – If you take it in the back room and torture it long enough, it will confess to anything you want to.

4. How best to prepare for the future
The point is not so much to predict “the” future…
but to prepare for various contingencies
Based on the logical extension of established trends

5. Ergo: How best to think about the future?
Think of the drivers of change
Use the drivers to imagine different scenarios of the future
Imagine perhaps three; each should be plausible but different
Extrapolate back from those future scenarios to think about what to do now to prepare

6. What “Drivers” Have We Observed?

8. Ubiquitous- Imbedded Intelligence
TechnoSphere Drivers
Intelligent Tech
Convergent Media
Information technology will transform our day-to-day lives.
"The big trends - - availability of cheap sensors - cheap computing power & ubiquitous connectivity -
by 2020 everything large enough to carry a microchip probably will, & from there the possibilities are endless-
Ubiquitous- Imbedded Intelligence

9. 2nite’s Line-up: Who-saw-what coming-when…
“Its” defining dimensions…& implications….
“Its” Ramifications:
New Rules & Roles re: Organization Structure & Management
New Business Models
Need for New Mind & Skill Sets…

10. Open Class Sujet du Jour
What the hell is it about these guys… that qualifies them as world renowned prognosticators
Open Class Sujet du Jour
Section (I) To Date
Sept.12 -  Meet the Futurists...
... Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard

11. Better experts = foxes: thinkers who know many small things,
The least accurate = hedgehogs: “thinkers who ‘know one big thing,’ aggressively extend the explanatory reach … into new domains”
Beginning in the 1980s examined 27,451 forecasts by 284 academics, pundits and other prognosticators
---- the conclusion - the experts bombed. …worse than statistical models, & could barely eke out a tie w/ dart-throwing chimps.
Better experts = foxes: thinkers who know many small things,

12. We look at the present through a rear view mirror”
“When faced with a totally new situation we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past.
Marshall McLuhan
We look at the present through a rear view mirror”

13. Looking to the future: common mistakes…

14. Looking to the future: common mistakes…
Making predictions rather than attaching probabilities to possibilities
Simply extrapolating current trends
Thinking of only one future

15. Joe Coates  compares Futurist’s thinking with conventional business thinking on 15 approaches). nov/dec 2004

16. ... Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard
Daniel Bell

17. ... Daniel Bell, , Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard
Alvin Toffler

18. Ray Kurzweil PREDICTIONS
... Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard
 PREDICTIONS
Ray Kurzweil

19. ... Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard

20. Kevin Kelly ….. tells technology's epic story
... Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard
Kevin Kelly
….. tells technology's epic story
12 Inevitable Tech Forces That Will Shape Our Future & THE FUTURE OF INTELLIGENCE

21. Kevin Kelly: How AI can bring on a second Industrial Revolution

22. ... Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard

23. ... Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard

24. The best way to predict the future is to invent it–
Alan Kay--‘Father’ of the PC and GUI interface