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Ravnoteža u IS-LM modelu
IS kriva predstavlja ravnotežnu na robnom trž. Y r LM IS r1 LM kriva predstavlja ravnotežu na novčanom tržištu. Y1 U preseku se nalazi jedinstvena kombinacija Y i r koja obezbeđuje ravnotežu na oba tržišta
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IS-LM i agregatna tražnja
Do sada smo koristili IS-LM model za analizu kratkog roka, kada su cene fiksne Međutim, promena P pomera LM krivu te stoga utiče i na dohodak - Y. Kriva agregatne tražnje opisuje relaciju P i Y
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Izvođenje AD krive Y Intuitivno objašnjenje nagiba AD krive:
LM(P2) Intuitivno objašnjenje nagiba AD krive: P (M/P ) LM ide ulevo r I Y IS LM(P1) r2 r1 Y2 Y1 Y P P2 Reminder: here see AD story different from microeconomic Demand curve for a single commodity. Note: we draw P1 before drawing LM curve: The position of the LM curve depends on the vrednost of M/P. M is an exogenous policy variable. So, if P is low (like P1 in the lower panel of the diagram), then M/P is relatively high, so the LM curve is over toward the right in the upper diagram. If P is high, like P2, then M/P is relatively low, so the LM curve is more toward the left. P1 AD Y2 Y1
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Monetarna politika i AD kriva
Y r LM(M1/P1) CB može da poveća agregatnu tražnju: M LM ide udesno IS LM(M2/P1) r1 Y1 r2 Y2 r I Y ta svaku vrednost P Y P AD2 AD1 It’s worth taking a moment to explain why we are holding P fixed at P1: To find out whether the AD curve shifts to the left or right, we need to find out what happens to the vrednost of Y associated with any given vrednost of P. This is not to say that the equilibrium vrednost of P will remain fixed after the policy change (though, in fact, we are assuming P is fixed in the short run). We just want to see what happens to the AD curve. Once we know how the AD curve shifts, we can then add the AS curves (short- or long-run) to find out what, if anything, happens to P (in the short- or long-run). P1
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Fiskalna politika i AD kriva
Y r Ekspanzivna fiskalna politika(G i/or T ) povećava agreg. tražnju: T C IS ide udesno Y za svaku vrednost P LM IS2 Y2 r2 IS1 Y1 r1 Y P AD2 AD1 P1
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Efikasnost ek.politike
fiskalna politika je sve efikasnija (Y sve više raste) što je: LM ravnija LM Y1 IS1 r 1 Y2 IS2 2 Pošto rast G povećava Y, rast tražnje za novcem ne podiže r preterano: te se investicije ne istiskuju preterano!. LM’ Y2’ 2’
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Efikasnost ek. politike
Monetarna politika biće sve efikasnija (Y će sve brže rasti) što je: IS ravnija Rast M smanjuje kamatnu stopu (r), Investicije rastu više kao reakcija na pad r, te output više raste r IS LM1 LM2 1 Y2’ 2’ 2 IS’ Y1 Y2
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IS-LM i AD-AS na kratak i na dugi rok
Od kratkog ka dugom roku vodi nas postepeno cenovno prilagođavanje. rasti Ako kratak rok Onda će vremenom nivo cena The next few slides put our IS-LM-AD in the context of the bigger picture - the AD-AS model in the short-run i long-run, which was introduced in Chapter 9. padati Ostati isti
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SR i LR efekti nekog IS šoka
Y r LRAS LM(P1) IS1 IS2 AD2 Negativni IS šok pomera IS i AD ulevo, te Y pada. AD1 Y P LRAS SRAS1 P1 Abbreviation: SR = short run, LR = long run
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SR i LR efekti nekog IS šoka
Y r LRAS LM(P1) U novoj kratkoročnoj ravnoteži, IS2 IS1 Y P LRAS AD2 SRAS1 P1 AD1
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SR i LR efekti šoka IS U novoj kratkoročnoj ravnoteži, ,
Y r LRAS LM(P1) U novoj kratkoročnoj ravnoteži, , IS2 IS1 Vremenom, P postepeno pada, što izaziva da SRAS ide dole M/P raste, te se LM spušta naniže Y P LRAS AD2 SRAS1 P1 AD1
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SR i LR efekti IS šoka Vremenom, P postepeno pada, što izaziva da
Y r LRAS LM(P1) SRAS2 P2 LM(P2) IS2 IS1 Vremenom, P postepeno pada, što izaziva da SRAS ide dole M/P raste, te se LM spušta naniže Y P LRAS AD2 SRAS1 P1 AD1
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SR i LR efekti IS šoka Y r LRAS LM(P1) SRAS2 P2 LM(P2) IS2 Proces se nastavlja sve dok privreda ne dostigne dugoročnu ravnotežu IS1 Y P LRAS AD2 SRAS1 P1 A good thing to do: Go back through this experiment again, i see if your students can figure out what is happening to the other endogenous variables (C, I, u) in the short run i long run. AD1
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Vežba Analiza SR & LR efekata M
Nacrtati IS-LM i AD-AS dijagrame kao ove ovde, Pokazati kratkororčni efekat mere CB kojom se povećava M. Obeležite tačke i pokažite strelicama kretanje krive. Pokažite tranziciju od kratkog na dugi rok. Kakva je relacija SR i LR vrednosti? Y r LRAS LM(M1/P1) IS Y P AD1 LRAS This exercise has two objectives: 1. To give students immediate reinforcement of the preceding concepts. 2. To show them that money is neutral in the long run, just like in chapter 4. You might have your students try other exercises using this framework: * the short-run i long-run effects of Ekspanzivna fiscal policy. Have them compare the long-run results in this framework with the results they obtained when doing the same experiment in Chapter 3 (the loanable funds model). SRAS1 P1
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Analiza -SR Kratak rok: Rast M povećava ponudu realnog novca i pomera
Y r Kratak rok: Rast M povećava ponudu realnog novca i pomera LM krivu udesno. Što pomera AD krivu udesno. Ravnoteža ide iz tačke 0 u tačku 1. Output raste do Y1. Obratite pažnju da kamatna Stopa pada sa r0 na r1. LRAS LM(M1/P1) IS r0 LM(M2/P1) r1 1 Y1 Y P AD1 AD2 LRAS This exercise has two objectives: 1. To give students immediate reinforcement of the preceding concepts. 2. To show them that money is neutral in the long run, just like in chapter 4. You might have your students try other exercises using this framework: * the short-run i long-run effects of Ekspanzivna fiscal policy. Have them compare the long-run results in this framework with the results they obtained when doing the same experiment in Chapter 3 (the loanable funds model). * Immediately after a negative shock pushes output below its natural rate, show how monetary or fiskalna politikacan be used to restore full-employment immediately (i.e., without waiting for prices to adjust). SRAS1 P1 1 Y1
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Analiza - LR Cene rastu proporcionalno M, sa P1 na P2,
Tako se realna ponuda novca vraća na prvobitni nivo: M2/P2 = M1/P1. Te se LM kriva vraća u prvobitni položaj. Ravnoteža se pomera iz tačke 1 u tačku 2. Output i kamata se takođe vraćaju u tačku 0. Y r LRAS LM(M2/P2) IS r0 0,2 LM(M2/P1) r1 1 Y1 Y P AD1 AD2 LRAS SRAS2 P2 2 This exercise has two objectives: 1. To give students immediate reinforcement of the preceding concepts. 2. To show them that money is neutral in the long run, just like in chapter 4. You might have your students try other exercises using this framework: * the short-run i long-run effects of Ekspanzivna fiscal policy. Have them compare the long-run results in this framework with the results they obtained when doing the same experiment in Chapter 3 (the loanable funds model). * Immediately after a negative shock pushes output below its natural rate, show how monetary or fiskalna politikacan be used to restore full-employment immediately (i.e., without waiting for prices to adjust). SRAS1 P1 1 Y1
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Nezaposlenost(desna skala)
Velika depresija Nezaposlenost(desna skala) Realni GNP (leva skala) This chart presents data from Table 11-2 on p.296 of the text. For data sources, see notes accompanying that table. Note the very strong negative correlation between output i unemployment.
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Great Depression: Observations
Realni tokovi: Output: pad Consumption: pad Investment: pad veliki Gov. purchases: fall (sa docnjom)
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Great Depression: Observations
Nominalna strana: Nominalna kamatna stopa: pad Novčana ponuda (nominalna): pad Nivo cena: pad (deflacija)
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Šok IS krive? Egzogeni pad tražnje za dobrima i uslugama - -- IS kriva otišla ulevo dokaz: pad outputa i kamatne stope, kao pri pomeranju IS krive ulevo
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Razlozi za pomeranje IS krive
Slom berze egzogeni C Oct-Dec 1929: S&P 500 pao 17% Oct 1929-Dec 1933: S&P 500 pao 71% Pad investicija “korekcija” nakon prevelike gradnje 1920-ih Krah banaka smanjio ponudu novca Restriktivna fiskalna politika Poreski prihodi su padali te su političari povećavali poreze i smanjivali G In item 2, I’m using the term “correction” in the stock market sense.
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Ogromni pad novčane ponude dokaz: M1 pao 25% 1929-33. Ali :
Šok LM krive Ogromni pad novčane ponude dokaz: M1 pao 25% Ali : P je još više pala, te je M/P čak malo porastao Nominalne kamatne sotpe su pale, što se ne bi desilo da je LM otišla ulevo.
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A revision to the Money Hypothesis
Velika deflacija: P je pala preko 25% Nagli pad očekivane inflacije zači da je za bilo koju nominalnu kamatnu stopu (i) ex ante r = i – e To je moglo da obeshrabri investitore i izazove depresiju Pošto je verovatno izazvana padom M, aktivna monetarna politika je mogla biti od pomoći.
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Zašto se ne može ponoviti
Političari i njihovi savetnici više znaju nego tada: CB ne bi pustila da M toliko padne. Fiskalna politika više ne diže poreze u recesiji niti smanjuje G. Osiguranje bankarskih depozita štiti od kraha banaka. Automatski stabilizatori Examples of automatic stabilizers: the income tax: people pay less taxes automatically if their income falls unemployment insurance: prevents income - i hence spending - from pad as much during a downturn This is discussed in Chapter 14.
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Rezime 1. IS-LM model egzogene: M, G, T, P egzogeno na kratrak rok, Y egzogeno na dugi rok endogene: r, Y endogeno na kratak rok, P na dugi rok
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Rezime 2. AD kriva Pokazuje relaciju izmeđuP i ravnotežne vrednosti Y iz IS-LM modela Negativni nagib jer P (M/P ) r I Y Ekspanzivna fiskalna politika pomera IS udesno, podiže dohodak i pomera AD udesno Ekspanzivna monetarna politika pomera LM krivu udesno, povećava dohodak i AD ide udesno
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Algebra AD krive Ako imamo sistem:
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Algebra AD krive Use the goods market equilibrium condition
Y = C + I + G Solve for Y: A line relating Y to r with slope –d/(1-b) Can see multipliers here: rise in Y taking r as given. But r is an endogenous variable i it will change…
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Algebra AD krive Use the money market to find a vrednost for r:
As done for the LM curve previously, suppose the money market is characterized by: Equilibrium in money market requires: Line with slope = e/f
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Algebra AD krive Now combine the two, substituting in for r:
Solve for Y. For convenience, define a term:
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Algebra AD krive P This implies a negative relationship between output (Y) i price level (P): an Aggregate Demand curve. AD Y This math can help reveal under what conditions monetary i fiscal policies will be most effective…
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Efikasnost ek. politike
fiskalna politikais effective (Y will rise much) when: LM flatter (f large or e small, so z near 1) As the rise in G raises Y, the increase in money Demand does not raise r much: small e:Md not responsive to Y -large f: Md is responsive to r so investment is not crowded out as much. LM Y1 IS1 r 1 Y2 IS2 2 LM’ Y2’ 2’
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Efikasnost ek. politike
Monetarna politika is effective (Y will rise much) when: IS flatter (d large: Investment is responsive to r) As a rise in M lowers the interest rate (r), investment rises more in response to the fall in r, so output rises more. r IS LM1 LM2 1 Y2’ 2’ 2 IS’ Y1 Y2
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