1. Evolution and Effects of Collective Bargaining Structure
Lucio Baccaro
University of Geneva
Sociology Department
13 October 2009

2. Mean Bargaining Coordination Index

3. Wage Coordination Index (Main Level)

4. Wage Coordination Index
16 OECD countries between 1974 and 2005
Modest trend towards disorganization up to the late 1980s, stability if not slight increase in the 1990s and early 2000s
Clear declining trends only in Australia, Sweden, and UK
Nevertheless the index measures the main level
Even when this has remained stable, the weight of decentralized bargaining has increased
H. Katz: organized decentralization

5. Mean Collective Bargaining Coverage

6. Collective Bargaining Coverage

7. Collective Bargaining Coverage
Small increase up to the late 1980s
Then small decline
Countries with a clear declining trend: Australia, UK, US, Germany (!)

8. Mean Tripartite Policy-Making

9. Tripartite Policy-Making

10. Tripartite Policy-Making
Growing trend, particularly marked in Ireland, Finland, and (to a lower extent) Norway and Italy
Political involvement substitutes for bargaining coordination
The index of ‘corporatism’ is more or less stable

11. Mean Union Density

12. Union Density

13. Union Density
Generalized decline

14. Overall Modest decline in bargaining coordination
Modest decline in collective bargaining coverage
Growth in ‘political’ involvement
All of this against the backdrop of a generalized decline in union density rates

15. Developing Country Trends
Fewer data, not particularly reliable
Collective bargaining (when it exists) is generally at the enterprise level
Union density rates are much lower than in European countries
Greater linkage between union density and collective bargaining coverage rates than in European countries
Union density is generally declining, except in some countries (e.g. China, Singapore) in which it is not clear what the union density rate means

16. Socio-Economics Effects
Inequality
From the 1990s on, collective bargaining coordination has a much weaker impact on inequality than it had in the 1970s and 1980s (statistically insignificant)
Political involvement has no significant impact on inequality
Wage share
From the 1990s on the countries with highly coordinated collective bargaining reduce their wage share faster than others
Wages trail productivity increases

17. Possible Explanations
A transformation in the political economy of centralized bargaining: wither redistribution?
Centralized wage institutions without strong unions lose their redistributive features?
Globalization makes it more difficult for market actors to deviate from market-conforming outcomes (more elastic labor demand curves)?