1. Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Multi-scale Tropical Convection and its Interaction with the Global Circulation
***** Organized Precipitation Systems *****
Mitch Moncrieff, NCAR
&
Duane Waliser, JPL/CalTech
Co-Chairs, YOTC Science Planning Group
Seamless Prediction
***** Time-scales up to Seasonal *****

2. Parameterized & explicit convection
Realistic representation of atmospheric convection in global models universally recognized to be a strategic problem.
Cloud-system resolving models (CRM) explicitly represent organized mesoscale precipitation systems.
CRM resolution (~ 1 km mesh) operates in regional NWP.
CRM applied in climate models as super-parameterization
Global NWP and climate models will require convective parameterization for the foreseeable future, should represent organized precipitation systems.
~10 km mesh: a parameterization terra incognita, hybrid (explicit + parameterized) convection

3. restrictive approximations Traditional cumulus parameterization
Climate model mesh ~100 km
Cumulus scale
~ 1 km
Scale gap
Scale-gap
assumption
implies
restrictive approximations
Microphysics
1 km
100 km
Horizontal
scale
Traditional cumulus parameterization
assumes a scale gap

4. Organized precipitation systems invalidates the scale-gap assumption
Mesoscale
organization
of precipitating convection
A continuum:
no scale gap
Microphysics
1 km
100 km
Horizontal
scale
Organized precipitation systems invalidates the scale-gap assumption

5. Advanced tools 100 m 1 km 10 km 100 km LES-CRM (~100 m)
Global CRM (~1 km)
Global NWP (~10 km)
Climate (~100 km)
Satellite observations
Microphysics
Horizontal scale
100 m
1 km
10 km
100 km
Advanced tools

6. Simulated convective organization (100 m mesh; 200 km x 200 km computational domain)
Courtesy: Marat Khairoutdinov (SUNY/Stoney Brook & CMMAP)

7. MJO in NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM)
Conventional parameterization (CAM)
Super-parameterization (SP-CAM)
Khairoutkinov et al. (2004)

8. Global CRM: Japan NICAM
MTSAT-IR
NICAM 3.5 km, 2-week
Courtesy: Taroh Matsuno, FRGCC

9. Improved MJO in ECMWF model
… encouraging for climate models

10. Aquaplanet Experiment Model Inter-Comparison (Climate Models)
NICAM
Courtesy: Mike Blackburn (U. Reading) & Dave Williamson (NCAR)

11. Seamless prediction & precipitation bias
Courtesy: J. Boyle, CAPT project, LLNL
Seamless prediction & precipitation bias

13. - Based at NCAR, supported jointly by NSF, NOAA, NASA
“Year” (data archiving period): May 2008-April 2010 for ECMWF data; indefinite for NASA/GMAO, NOAA/NCEP data sets
Targeted research
- MJO and convectively coupled equatorial waves
- Monsoons and intraseasonal variability
- Easterly waves and tropical cyclones
- Tropical-extratropical interaction
- Diurnal cycle
Outreach
- YOTC sessions at major conferences: Fall AGU; 2009 Spring AGU; 2009 AMS Annual Conference; 2009 Fall AGU
YOTC Project Office
- Based at NCAR, supported jointly by NSF, NOAA, NASA
YOTC Implementation Workshop (July )

14. YOTC Science Plan, Implementation Plan, etc: www.ucar.edu/yotc
Complete analyses, forecasts, special diagnostics
ECMWF T799 – 25km, on-line
NASA GMAO (see YOTC website)
NCEP - 40km, in progress
Observations & integrated data sets
Multi-sensor satellite data (inclined-orbit and geostationary)
Field-campaigns, emphasis on tropics
Long-term in-situ measurements in tropics(DOE/ARM)
Satellite-data analysis, dissemination and visualization: NASA Goddard Giovanni 14

15. Kelvin Waves and tropical convection: June 19, 2008
Orbit analyzed

16. A-Train Data Interface
Satellite Data Analysis & Dissemination
NASA Giovanni
A-Train Data Interface
June 19, 2008 16

17. YOTC Implementation: Collaborative research
Weather: initial-value problem for climate (seamless prediction)
- CCRP ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT, US DOE)
- Transpose-AMIP (weather IVP for climate): 5-day hindcasts of YOTC events by Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), contribution to CMIP5
- Hindcasts with NCAR Community Atmospheric Model utilizing super-parameterization (SP-CAM) for same events (CMMAP)
MJO & Monsoon Interseasonal Oscillation (MJO-MISMO)
- MJO hindcasts: UK Cascade (boreal winter ) and CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel (AAMP)
- MISMO: Rapid northward propagation of ITCZ in 2009, effects on Indian monsoon rainfall (weak monsoon).
- Heavy-rain episodes: Asian Monsoon Years (AMY); Meiyu front in China.

18. Global CRM experiments for YOTC events: NASA GEOS-5 cubed-sphere model (C1440, C720); Japanese NICAM GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS): Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison (GPCI) for June-August 2008 of YOTC: transition of stratocumulus, trade-cumulus, ITCZ. Tropical-Extratropical interaction - THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes, TPARC and TCS08. Easterly Waves and Tropical Cyclones - AMMA EOP cases during YOTC NCAR Tropical Channel Model (TCM) simulations: - 10-km mesh, 2-year integration, ECMWF T799 YOTC dataset for initial & meridional boundary conditions - Maritime Continent ‘prediction barrier’: orographic, diurnal cycle, coastal effects on MJO (nested TCM)

19. Priorities & strategic developments
- Bring above collaborative research (YOTC Implementation Plan) to fruition -- multi-year effort.
- Expand involvement of tropical nations (e.g., Africa, China, India, Korea, S. America) who have great interest in YOTC.
- Application of YOTC observational-computational research resource, i.e., high-resolution models (operational & research) + NASA Giovanni-YOTC satellite dissemination/analysis/visualization facility.
Strategic developments
- As a region of opportunity, Indian Ocean region is comparable to Pacific in late ‘80s-early ‘90s (TAO and drifter deployment, leading to TOGA COARE). How can YOTC advance Indian Ocean research?
- YOTC‘s observational-computational research resource can address the weather-climate element of tropical convection/global interaction as a “virtual field-campaign”: i) formulate hypotheses for multiscale observational evaluation; ii) set field-campaigns into a large-scale context; iii) pathway to improved convective parameterization.

20. YOTC planning publications
Moncrieff, M.W., M. Shapiro, J. Slingo, and F. Molteni, 2007: Collaborative research at the intersection of weather and climate. WMO Bulletin, 56, Moncrieff, M.W., D. E. Waliser, and others, 2009: The multiscale organization of tropical convection and its interaction with the global circulation: Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in review. Waliser, D. E., and M.W. Moncrieff, 2007: Year of Tropical Convection: A joint WCRP-THORPEX Activity to Address the Challenge of Tropical Convection., GEWEX News, 17, 8-9. Waliser, D.E., M.W. Moncrieff, 2008: Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Science Plan, WMO/TD-No. 1452, WCRP-130, WWRP/THORPEX, No 9, 26 pp. [on-line at