1. WG4: interpretation and applications A success story… to be continued… Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss, Geneva

2. Topics FIELDEXTRA  presentation by JM Bettems Retrospective (short)
Perspectives

3. WG4 retrospective
2001: Inventory of postprocessing methods, COSMO LEPS
~2008: separation of ensemble part to WG7
2009: Project INTERP (scale dependent verification), inclusion of FIELDEXTRA as universal postprocessing method
2012: Project CORSO (winter Olympics SOCHI)
Participation into various activities:
Verification and guidelines for forecasters
NWP Test suite
Feed back from forecasters
Specific applications (CAT, TS indices,…)

4. COSMO LEPS Became operational on ECMWF units
Available to all COSMO states
10 km  7 km
16  20 members
Extension of the domain
Still used, also as a testbed / benchmark

5. WG4 retrospective
2001: Inventory of postprocessing methods, COSMO LEPS
~2008: separation of the ensemble part to WG7
2009: Project INTERP (scale dependent verification)
Inclusion of FIELDEXTRA as universal postprocessing method
2012: Project CORSO (winter Olympics SOCHI)
Participation into various activities:
Verification and guidelines for forecasters
NWP Test suite
Feed back from forecasters
Specific applications (CAT, TS indices,…)

6. Motivation: precipitation pattern
2km
7km

7. Expected behaviour of scores
From Nigel Roberts (2005)

8. What verification is useful to forecasters?
Verification has to be local (not too much)…
…and stratified
It can be stratified by type of phenomena (thunderstorms, drizzle,…) either observed or forecasted
Or by type of synoptic situation
The verification results can be used in order to implement targeted postprocessing (decision trees)…
…or be used by the forecasters in order
to correct the models
not to use them in certain situations
use different indicators from models (instability,…)
The verification should be relevant to the present version of the model

9. Work already done Precipitation bias by weather class (Zala) 2008, SW
2008, flat

10. Work already done Fuzzy verification by weather class (Weusthoff)
We think about how to communicate the results

11. YEAR 2010 NE
(11x) S
(10x)
COSMO-7 better
COSMO-2 better
differences in Fractions Skill Score for weather-type dependant verif
COSMO-2 minus COSMO-7 F
(78x) N
(18x) SW
(49x) H
(73x) E
(4x) NW
(38x) W
(56x) SE
(4x) L
(25x)

12. Summary neighbourhood verification precipitation in 2010
The skill of the models varies for different weather types and the differences between COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 varies also: - best skill: Autumn and Spring, south to northwest weather types - greatest difference COSMO-2 minus COSMO-7: Summer and Winter, north- and east types, convective cases
Tanja Weusthoff

13. WG4 retrospective
2001: Inventory of postprocessing methods, COSMO LEPS
~2008: separation of the ensemble part to WG7
2009: Project INTERP (scale dependent verification)
Inclusion of FIELDEXTRA as universal postprocessing method
2012: Project CORSO (winter Olympics SOCHI)
Participation into various activities:
Verification and guidelines for forecasters
NWP Test suite
Feed back from forecasters
Specific applications (CAT, TS indices,…)

14. WG4 retrospective
2001: Inventory of postprocessing methods, COSMO LEPS
~2008: separation of the ensemble part to WG7
2009: Project INTERP (scale dependent verification)
Inclusion of FIELDEXTRA as universal postprocessing method
2012: Project CORSO (winter Olympics SOCHI)
Participation into various activities:
Verification and guidelines for forecasters
NWP Test suite
Feed back from forecasters
Specific applications (CAT, TS indices,…)

15. WG4 retrospective
Always keep in view the bridge(s) between modellers and users (forecasters).
Difficulties
The exchange of application and methods between countries is difficult.
Postprocessing and forecasters usually sit in other departments/divisions and do not participate to COSMO activities/meetings.

16. WG4 perspectives Discussions since January with SMC and STC
Nominate a focal point to WG4 in each country
Germany : M. Paulat
Switzerland : D. Cattani
Italy : A Canessa
Greece : D. Boucouvala
Poland : A. Mazur
Romania : A. Iriza
Russia : A. Bundel
Israel : A. Savir, E. Brainin
STC nominates a coordinator among them
Welcome and good luck Anastasia

17. WG4 perspectives
Define terms of reference for WG4 with (new) orientations.
Will be precised by the WG.
Survey the development of “generic” “products” (Fog, Thunderstorms, Wind at a specific location and height, clear air turbulence (CAT), Icing, high impact weather).
“generic” means among others “not comercial”, “can be exchanged/used by all COSMO members”
Develop optimal aggregation and calibration methods
Survey (coordinate) methods intended to blend model output and observations, for instance in very short range forecasting.
Develop and promote guidelines to users/forecasters

18. WG4 perspectives
WG4 should not only be considered as considering activities happening downstream of the models, but should also convey back the requirements and worries of the users / forecasters to all WGs and the COSMO management.
PTs and PPs will be defined.
The whole WG will meet when the survey of requirements will be complete.

19. Many thanks to all of you
It has been my great pleasure to participate to COSMO since The consortium has since then doubled in number of member states and probably also in the amount of participating scientists. The structure and governance has evolved a lot, I hope in a sense of efficiency. The models have evolved from a 14km resolution to 1km with explicit convection.
I would like to thank the successive SPMs Günther Doms, Tiziana Paccagnella, Marco Arpagaus, Michał Ziemiański and Dmitrii Mironov for fruitful collaboration. Also all members of the STC for the organisation and support. Last but not least all other WG coordinators for the collaboration they offered in the SMC.
The relationship between forecasters and modelers is usually impregnated alternatively by hate and love. I was trying to promote the comprehension between these two worlds not only by explaining the strengths and weaknesses of the models, but also to bring back the requirements of the forecasters to the (more and more numerous) modelers.
I also had the opportunity to meet interesting people from other countries. I think I can consider COSMO as a part of my (extended) family. I certainly will continue to consider these 16 years as a beautiful part of my life.

20. Welcome to the new life