1. Texas Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections
Southlake Kids Interested in Leadership
Hosted by Rep. Capriglione HD 98
Austin, TX
April 6, 2018
@TexasDemography

2. ~ Bogue, 1968; Murdock & Ellis, 1991
Demography – the study of the size, distribution, and composition of populations; the processes determining these – namely, fertility, mortality, and migration; and the determinants and consequences of all of the above.
~ Bogue, 1968; Murdock & Ellis, 1991
Generally, demography is the study of populations or the study of changes in the number of births, deaths, and migration – people moving in or out of an area. More specifically, demography is the study of the size, distribution, and composition of populations; the processes determining these – namely, fertility, mortality, and migration; and the determinants and consequences of all of the above.
~ Bogue, 1968; Murdock & Ellis, 1991
Socioeconomic characteristics that are commonly studied in conjunction with or in relation to the demographic processes include: marital status, living arrangements, race/ethnic composition, education, economic status, and more frequently health status.

3. The Population Research Institute, 2
The Population Research Institute, 2.1 Kids: Stable Population
Here is a short piece on two of the main processes in demography.
Population Research Institute’s 2.1 Kids: Stable Population
The total fertility rate (TFR) can be thought of as the average number of children that would be born per woman.
In 2009, the U.S. Total Fertility Rate was This is down from in 2008, which represents the largest single year decline since However, the TFR was above replacement levels as recently as 2006 and Non-Hispanic White TFR = 1.78; Hispanic TFR = 2.733
During this same period, the Texas Total Fertility Rate was , well above replacement levels.

4. Texas is experiencing significant growth.

5. Growing States, 2000-2017 2000 Population 2010 2017 Population Numeric
Change
Percent
United States
281,421,906
308,745,538
325,719,178
16,961,073
5.49%
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
28,304,596
3,158,496
12.56%
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
39,536,653
2,282,135
6.13%
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
20,984,400
2,179,806
11.59%
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
10,429,379
740,689
7.65%
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
10,273,419
737,698
7.74%
Washington
5,894,121
6,724,540
7,405,743
681,198
10.13%
Arizona
5,130,632
6,392,017
7,016,270
623,961
9.76%
Texas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’ growth exceeds that of all other states between 2010 and 2017.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Count, 2017 Population Estimates.

6. Population Growth, 2010-2017 Area 2010 2017 Numeric Change
Percent Change
United States
308,745,538
325,719,178
16,961,073
5.49%
Texas
25,145,561
28,304,596
3,158,496
12.56%
Tarrant County
1,809,034
2,054,475
243,861
13.48%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Count, 2017 Population Estimates.

7. Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2016
When we look at the geographic distribution of the population of Texas over time we see continually increasing population in the counties along the I-35 corridor, the Houston area, and the lower Rio Grand Valley. Urbanized areas out west have grown but most counties west have experienced limited growth and some population decline. Approximately 86% of the population is along I-35 and east. This area with the 3 major metropolitan areas at the points is often described as the Texas population triangle.
The counties of Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, and Travis make up the points of the “population triangle” in Texas and are the most populated in the State. Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, and El Paso counties also have significant population concentrations. Many counties west of Interstate 35 are more sparsely populated.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

8. Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2016
96 counties lost population over the 6 year period.
Population change over the decade has been greatest in the urban and suburban population triangle counties. Counties in the lower Rio Grande Valley also had significant growth as did El Paso. Overall, 158 counties gained population while 96 (38%) lost population over the decade.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

9. Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2016
Percent change is an indicator of the speed of population change void of information about the volume of population change. Percent change in the population over the past few years has been greatest in the suburban population triangle counties, notably among counties between San Antonio and Austin. In the early part of the decade, counties in the Eagle Ford Shale area (south east of San Antonio) and the Cline Shale area (Midland and Odessa area), had been growing quickly. This is no longer the case.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

10. Components of Population Change
by Percent in Texas,
It is important to understand a couple of very basic element of population change to think about how growing population may impact our transportation system. Population changes from two factors, one is natural increase which is simply births minus deaths over time. Essentially population added from natural increase are babies who are unlikely to be driving their own vehicle on our roads before age 16. Combine this with the fact that as people die, there are fewer drivers on the road. So the effect of population growth from natural increase on our transportation infrastructure is both lightening, from people dying, and delayed until babies reach the age where they can drive. The second way population changes is from net-migration, which is simply in-minus out migrants. In Texas, the balance has been for us to have more in than out migrants. Migrants, are usually adults who are drivers (though yes, some do have non-driving children) and the may be compounded by the fact that many of the in-migrants may also take a job that requires them to drive. Essentially, migrants immediately contribute to adding stress to the transportation infrastructure.
When we look at population change in Texas, from 1950 to present we can see that before 1970, most of our growth was from natural increase. Starting in the 1970s a much larger percent of our growth is attributed to net migration and this continues to today where approaching half of our population change is from migration.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

11. Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2016-2017
County
U.S. Rank
Percent Population Change
Percent Change from Domestic Migration
Percent Change from International
Migration
Comal 2
5.1%
95.9%
4.0%
Hays 4
5.0%
82.2%
1.8%
Kendall 5
4.9%
88.5%
2.0%
Kaufman 11
4.1%
74.1%
5.6%
Rains 13
59.4%
15.8%
Williamson 16
3.7%
73.5%
8.0%
Rockwall 22
3.6%
2.5%
Parker 26
67.1%
9.0%
Denton 32
3.5%
81.3%
2.2%
Guadalupe 36
3.3%
83.5%
0.7%
Ellis 44
3.1%
78.1%
2.6%
Twenty-six percent of the 50 fastest growing counties in the United States from 2016 to 2017 were in Texas. Some of the fastest growing counties in the country continue to be suburban ring counties, such as Comal, Hays, and Kendall counties. Growth among the fastest growing counties in the country stems more from migration than natural increase.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates.
*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2016. 8

12. Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2016-2017
County
U.S. Rank Population Change
Population Change,
Percent of Change from Natural Increase
Percent Change from Domestic Migration
Percent Change from International Migration
Harris 4
35,939
79.9%
-27.9%
48.1%
Tarrant 5
32,729
44.4%
37.7%
17.9%
Bexar 7
30,831
44.6%
39.3%
16.1%
Dallas 8
30,686
-20.9%
41.0%
Denton 9
27,911
23.9%
67.1%
9.0%
Collin 10
27,150
24.8%
59.4%
15.8%
Fort Bend 14
22,870
25.8%
58.7%
15.5%
Travis 15
22,116
44.2%
33.3%
22.5%
Williamson 19
19,776
20.3%
74.1%
5.6%
Montgomery 28
16,412
18.5%
73.5%
8.0%
Ten of the top 25 counties in the United States that were growing the most numerically between 2016 and 2017 were in Texas. These counties are the larger ones in the State and are all counties that have experienced continued growth. However, the components attributing to their population change varies. For instance, natural increase and international migration are playing a key role in population growth in Dallas County. Harris and Tarrant counties are growing about evenly from migration and natural increase. Whereas in the suburban ring counties migration (mostly domestic) is driving population growth. Harris County dropped from the being the county adding the second largest population to adding the fourth largest population between 2016 and This drop is not related to Hurricane Harvey as estimates span from July 1, 2016 to July 1, 2017, a couple of months prior to the storm. The drop can most likely be attributed to the region’s continued recovery from the oil and gas bust. 9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates.

13. Texas continues to diversify.

14. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
As of the 2000 Census, about 53% of Texas’ population was non-Hispanic Anglo, about 32% where of Hispanic descent, about 11% where non-Hispanic African American, and about 4% were non-Hispanic Other.
In 2010, it is estimated that about 45% of the Texas population was non-Hispanic Anglo, 38% of Hispanic descent, 11% were non-Hispanic African American, and about 6% were non-Hispanic Other (largely of Asian descent). 11
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2016 Population Estimates

15. Race/Ethnicity Composition, 2016
United States
Texas
Tarrant County
Total
323,127,513
27,862,596
2,016,872
NH White
197,969,608 (61.3%)
11,872,926 (42.6%)
965,210 (47.9%)
NH Black
40,229,236 (12.4%)
3,298,870 (11.8%)
321,878 (16.0%)
NH Asian
17,741,457 (5.5%)
1,301,143 (4.7%)
107,630 (5.3%)
NH Other
2,954,629 (0.9%)
113,744 (0.4%)
11,054 (0.5%)
NH Two or More Races
6,762,296 (2.1%)
394,789 (1.4%)
37,895 (1.9%)
Hispanic
57,470,287 (17.8%)
10,881,124 (39.1%)
573,205 (28.4%)
The fastest growing (2010 to 2016) race/ethnic group in the U.S. is Asian, followed by Two or More Races. In Texas, there is a similar trend. In Tarrant County, the fastest growing race/ethnic groups are Two or More Races, followed by Asian.

16. Population Pyramids for Hispanics and Non-Hispanic Whites in Texas, 2010
The age distribution of the non-Hispanic white population in Texas is weighted heavily with the “baby boom” generation. Largely the result of lower fertility and less net in-migration, the non-Hispanic white population has relatively fewer young persons relative to those in the middle-age years. In 2010, at ages 37 and younger, the Hispanic population exceeds the non-Hispanic white population. Median age of NH White women is 43.4 years of age, compared to 29.0 years of age for Hispanic women.

17. Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS

19. Teen (ages 15-19 years) birth rates, the U.S. and select states, 2015
Area
Rank
Birth Rate Per 1,000 Women
United States
23.3
Arkansas 1
38.0
Mississippi 2
34.8
Oklahoma 3
New Mexico 4
34.6
Texas 5
Louisiana 6
34.1
Kentucky 7
32.4
West Virginia 8
31.9
Tennessee 9
30.5
Alabama 10
30.1
Alaska 11
29.3
Wyoming 12
29.2
Nevada 13
27.6
South Dakota 14
26.4
Arizona 15
26.3
Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

20. Texas is young, but aging.

21. States with the Oldest Median Ages, 2000, 2010, 2014
Rank
State
Med Age
Median Age 1
West Virginia
38.9
Maine
42.7
44.2 2
Florida
38.7
Vermont
41.5
New Hampshire
42.6 3
38.6
41.3 4
Pennsylvania 38
41.1
42.0 5…
37.7
40.7
41.8
…46
California
33.3
35.2
Idaho
35.7 47
33.2
34.6
North Dakota
34.9 48
Alaska
32.4
33.8
Texas
34.2 49
32.3
33.6 50
Utah
27.1
29.2
30.5 -
United States
35.3
37.2
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Censuses
US Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimate by State

22. Median Age, Texas Counties, 2012-2016
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

23. Percent of Population 65 Years Plus, Texas Counties, 2011-201530
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

24. Population by Age Group and as Percent of the Total Texas Population, 1950-2050
Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections , 0.5 Migration Scenario

25. Economic Outlook

26. Economic Indicators, Texas and U.S., 2016
Median Household Income
Change,
Texas
$56,565 +
Asian
$82,081
NH White
$70,131
Hispanic
$44,579
Black
$42,582
Unemployment rate
Texas = 5.6%
U.S. = 5.8%
Median Household Income
Texas = $56,565
U.S. = $57,617
Median Family Income
Texas = $67,025
U.S. = 71,062
Median earnings for males working full time
Texas = $47,351
U.S. = $50,586
Median earnings for females working full time
Texas = $37,576
U.S. = $40,626
Poverty rate
Texas = 15.6%
U.S. = 14.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

27. Median Household Income, Texas Counties, 2016
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey Year Estimates

28. Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2016

29. Number and Percent of Texans Living Below Poverty, 1993 to 2016
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates.

30. Poverty Rate by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2016
There is great disparity in poverty among race/ethnicity groups. Non-Hispanic Whites have the lowest poverty rate at 9.2% followed by Asians with an 11.1% poverty rate. African Americans and Hispanics have the highest poverty rates. Nearly 1 in 4 Hispanics and nearly 1 in 4 African Americans live in poverty in Texas. These rates are over twice that of Asian Texans and nearly three times the rate of non-Hispanic White Texans.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates.

31. Percent of the population with income below poverty, Texas counties, 2011-2015
Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, American Community Survey, Year Sample

32. Unemployment and Poverty Rates by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2016

33. Poverty Rate by Educational Attainment, Texas, 2016
Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates.

34. Educational Attainment, Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, 2016
 U.S.
Texas
 Tarrant County
Percent high school graduate or higher
87.5%
82.9%
85.3%
Percent bachelor's degree or higher
31.3%
28.9%
30.7%
Percent HS or higher, NH White
92.5%
93.4%
94.6%
Percent HS or higher, Black
85.2%
89.1%
90.7%
Percent HS or higher, Asian
86.6%
87.6%
83.8%
Percent HS or higher, Hispanic
67.1%
64.9%
60.3%
Percent BA or higher, NH White
35.0%
37.6%
39.5%
Percent BA or higher, Black
20.9%
23.1%
22.7%
Percent BA or higher, Asian
53.2%
56.7%
41.7%
Percent BA or higher, Hispanic
15.3%
14.2%
13.0%
U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples, 2016

35. Percent Distribution of Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2008, 2011, and 2015
Educational attainment has been improving in Texas. In % of adults had some post secondary education or more and by 2015 that percentage was Some of this is the result of trends in Texan educational attainment and some is the result of more highly education persons moving to Texas from other states and countries.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples,

36. Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above
Educational attainment by race/ethnicity in Texas suggests that adults of Hispanic descent are much less likely to have completed high school compared to other race/ethnic groups. Over time, the percent of persons of Hispanic descent who have completed high school has been increasing more rapidly than for other groups but even at this pace of change it will take numerous decades for Hispanics to achieve parity with non-Hispanics in the percent with a high school degree or greater.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample,

37. Trends in Latino Education in the U.S.
Over the past decade, Hispanic high school dropout rates have dropped.
College enrollment among Hispanics is increased.
There is still a large disparity between Hispanics and other groups in obtaining a bachelor’s degree.
Hispanic college students attend public 2-year schools at higher rates than other groups.
Hispanics are less likely than other groups to have student debt.
Nearly all Latino youths (89%) believe a college degree is important for getting ahead in life.
Source: Pew Research Center, 2016, 5 Facts about Latinos and Education and Between Two Worlds: How Young Latinos Come of Age in America, 2009

38. Population Projections

39. Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2016 Preliminary Population Projections

40. Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2020
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2016 Preliminary Population Projections and U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Population Estimates

41. Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050
The projected population of Texas by race/ethnicity suggests that the Hispanic population will be a major driver in the population growth of the state. The non-Hispanic white population will grow very slowly and then start to decline as the Baby-Boom generation ages into high mortality years. The non-Hispanic other group is largely composed of persons of Asian descent and this group is projected to exceed the non-Hispanic black population by This graph assumes migration patterns observed between 2000 and 2010.
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , Migration Scenario

42. Projected Population of Persons Aged 0-18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050
The projected number of children by race and ethnicity suggests that Hispanics are and will continue to drive increases in population among youth in Texas.
Source: Texas State Data Center 2016 Population Projections

43. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 1980 to 2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980 to 2010 Decennial Censuses; Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Projections, Half Migration Scenario

44. Demographic Overview Texas is experiencing significant growth.
Population growth is not geographically evenly distributed.
Texas continues to racially/ethnically diversify.
The population of Texas, while relatively young, is also aging.
The components of population change have varying implications for infrastructure in Texas.
A young and growing workforce could be a competitive edge for Texas and its growing metro areas.
Demographic shifts may have serious implications for maintaining inclusive and equitable economic growth in the state.

45. Lila Valencia, Ph.D. Office: (512) 936-3542 Lila.Valencia@utsa.edu
demographics.texas.gov
Lila Valencia, Ph.D.
@TexasDemography
The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas.