1. Intent of 40/40/20

2. The Education Imperative

3. The Circle of Prosperity
A talented, flexible workforce and an appealing environment…
Diverse, value-adding industries that provide well paying jobs…
Generate revenues for excellent schools, quality public services, and public facilities
The Circle of Prosperity

4. Three Eras of US Education

5. 1915-1940 Mass secondary school education begins to drive college enrollments

6. Universal high schools drive postsecondary enrollments
Elementary
Secondary
Universal high schools drive postsecondary enrollments
Elementary and secondary enrollments (public institutions), postsecondary enrollment (public and private);
Source: NCES (1993), 120 Years of American Education: A Statistical Portrait. Tables 8 and 24.

7. 1915-1940 Supply of Skilled Workers Exceeds Demand
Supply and Demand for US College Educated Workers: ;
Source: Goldin and Katz (May 2009) The Race between Education and Technology, Chapter 8 excerpt. Table 1

8. College wage premium falls during 1915-1940
Source: Goldin and Katz (May 2009) The Race between Education and Technology. Chapter 8 excerpt, Figure 3

9. 1940-1980 Postsecondary expansion fed by higher rates of high school completion

10. 1940-1980 Growing rates of HS and college grads
HS Completers
BA+
Growing rates of HS and college grads
US Educational Attainment, year olds, , Source: US Census Bureau

11. Oregon and US among world leaders in educational attainment Percentage of 55- to 64-Year-Olds with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2007; Source: OECD

12. 1940-1980 An oversupply of skills then a match
Demand
Supply
An oversupply of skills then a match
Supply and Demand for US College Educated Workers: ; Source: Goldin and Katz (May 2009) The Race between Education and Technology, Chapter 8 excerpt. Table 1

13. 1940-1980 College Wage Premium: 30-45%
Source: Goldin and Katz (May 2009) The Race between Education and Technology. Chapter 8 excerpt, Figure 3

14. Masters+
BAs
AA and some college
HS degree
No HS degree
Wages grew rapidly and together Average Portland Wages (2010 dollars) by Educational Attainment, Laborforce Participants Ages 25-64

15. 1980-2005 High school graduation rates plateau and college degrees slow

16. Growth in attainment slows
Self-reported completion is overstated.
HS Completers
BA+
Growth in attainment slows
Educational Attainment, year olds, ; Source: US Census

17. 1980-2005 Demand for skills exceeds supply
Supply and Demand for US College Educated Workers: ; Source: Goldin and Katz (May 2009) The Race between Education and Technology, Chapter 8 excerpt. Table 1

18. US and Oregon fall off the international pace Percentage of 25- to 34-Year-olds with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2007; Source: OECD

19. College wage premium soars
Source: Goldin and Katz (May 2009) The Race between Education and Technology. Chapter 8 excerpt, Figure 3

20. Masters+
Bachelor’s degree
AA and some college
HS degree
No HS degree
High school grads and dropouts see declines in real wages Average Portland Wages (2010 dollars) by Educational Attainment, Laborforce Participants Ages 25-64

21. “A big reversal occurred around 1980
“A big reversal occurred around 1980.…Education lost the race to technology….the slowdown in education at various levels is robbing Americans of the ability to grow strong together.”
Goldin and Katz (2009)

22. Clarifying the Goal

23. How does the goal apply to the stock and flow of working-age Oregonians?
The Flow = 55,000 Oregonians will turn 25 each year
The Stock = 2,400,000 working age adults

24. 40/40/20 for all Working-Age Adults
BA+
40%
AA or Credential
High School
20%
40/40/20 for all Working-Age Adults

25. 40/40/20 Focused on the Pipeline
BA+
40%
AA or Credential
High School
20%
BA+
30%
BA+
33%
AA or Credential
18%
AA or Credential
24%
High School
42%
High School
36%
Less than HS
10%
Less than HS 7%
40/40/20 Focused on the Pipeline

26. Which credentials count toward 40/40/20?
And does the system prioritize certain skills or degrees (e.g., STEM)?

27. The Payoff

28. Educational Attainment Drives Personal Income Share of population with college degree and personal income per capita, 2010 Source: US Census

29. Economic Return of Higher Educational Attainment
+11%
Increase in long-run state earnings
+$ 16.1 billion
Annual increase in personal income
$37, $42,079
Change in annual per capita personal income