1. YALE School of Management
April 5, 2012
US-CHINA RELATIONS
PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE by
Jeffrey E. Garten
YALE School of Management

2. OVERVIEW BACKGROUND TO MY VIEWS
PAST – EIGHT PHASES OF US-CHINA RELATIONS
PRESENT – WHY MORE COMPLEX, DIFFICULT
KEY IMPERATIVES FOR POLICY
A FINAL WORD ABOUT STUDENT EXCHANGES
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
Q&A

3. EIGHT PHASES OF US-CHINA RELATIONS
1898 – WORLD WAR I
PHILIPPINES/OPEN DOOR/ IMMIGRATION
WORLD WAR I – WORLD WAR II
CONTAINING JAPAN, DOLLAR DIPLOMACY
WORLD WAR II
CHINA AS ALLY; ROOSEVELT’S POST-WAR VISION
COLD WAR ( )
CHINA AS ENEMY; CONTAINING COMMUNISM; KOREAN WAR; US DOMESTIC POLITICS

4. EIGHT PHASES OF US-CHINA RELATIONS
NIXON OPENING, CARTER NORMALIZATION, TAIWAN
1980’S
OPPOSING USSR (“CHINA CARD”); ARMS SALES; BORDER MONITORING; TAIWAN
1990’S
HUMAN RIGHTS, TAIWAN, TRADE/WTO
2000’S
TRADE, CURRENCY, CHINA’S GROWING GEOPOLITICAL FOOTPRINT – ASIAN WATERS, AFRICA, LATIN AMERICA

5. EIGHT PHASES OF US-CHINA RELATIONS KEY SUMMARY POINTS
LIMITED NUMBER OF ISSUES
CONTAIN JAPAN
CONTAIN CHINA ITSELF
CONTAIN USSR
MARKET ACCESS
IMMIGRATION
TAIWAN
HUMAN RIGHTS
US ALWAYS THE RISING OR DOMINANT POWER; CHINA PLAYING WITH WEAK HAND
CHINA OFTEN THE DERIVATIVE OF SOMETHING ELSE
MOSTLY BILATERAL

6. LOOKING AHEAD A LOT IN COMMON
FORMULA FOR CAPITALISM
ENERGY
AGEING
OLD GOALS AND DRIVES LESS VIABLE IN NEW ENVIRONMENT
US MISSIONARY GOAL, GLOBAL “LEADERSHIP-COMPLEX”
CHINA “MIDDLE KINGDOM COMPLEX,” FREE RIDER HABIT

7. LOOKING AHEAD BROADER, MORE DIFFICULT AND COMPLEX AGENDA
SPECIFIC TRADE DISPUTES → SHAPE OF TRADING SYSTEM
SPECIFIC CURRENCY RELATIONSHIPS → SHAPE OF MONETARY SYSTEM
NEW, INTENSE DISCUSSION OF ECONOMIC REFORMS; KEY TO WESTERN RECOVERY
GLOBAL COMPETITION FOR RESOURCES AND GEOPOLITICAL CONSEQUENCES (EXAMPLE: MIDDLE EAST)

8. LOOKING AHEAD
MILITARY RIVALRY IN ASIAN WATERS; DEFENSE SPENDING GOING OPPOSITE WAYS; OPACITY IN CHINA’S POLICY; WORRYING TRENDS
NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION (IRAN, NORTH KOREA)
CLIMATE CHANGE
COMPETITION IN CYBERSPACE; NEED FOR RULES
NOT JUST US ADVANCING IDEAS; NOW CHINA, TOO
BOTH GOVERNMENTS SERIOUSLY HANDICAPPED OR CONSTRAINED
PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT OF RISING AND (RELATIVELY) DECLINING POWERS

9. KEY IMPERATIVES REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS DOMESTIC RENEWAL IN US
BROADER REFORMS IN CHINA
GREATER EMPHASIS ON MULTILATERAL (G-2 NOT FEASIBLE)

10. KEY IMPERATIVES GUARD AGAINST FLASHPOINTS
MAJOR DOMESTIC UPHEAVAL IN CHINA
CYBERATTACK
NAVAL CONFRONTATION
WAR ON KOREAN PENINSULA
DECLARATION OF TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE
NEED FOR CONTINGENCY PLANNING/ CRISIS MANAGEMENT PLANNING

11. POST SCRIPT – STUDENTS
MASSIVE INCREASE IN NUMBERS OF CHINESE STUDENTS COMING TO THE US
NUMBERS AND % INCREASE STEADILY RISING
43% INCREASE IN UNDERGRADUATES IN 2011 OVER 2010
21% INCREASE IN GRADUATE STUDENTS; ALMOST HALF OF FOREIGN GRADUATE STUDENTS IN US
27.5% STUDYING BUSINESS
19.2% STUDYING ENGINEERING
11.5% STUDYING PHYSICAL/LIFE SCIENCES
10.6% STUDYING MATH/COMPUTER SCIENCE
≈70%

12. POST SCRIPT – STUDENTS NOT EASY TO EVALUATE IMPACT
GREAT FOR CHINA; GREAT FOR US
TWO IMEPRATIVES FOR US
SEND MORE TO CHINA
LIBERALIZE VISAS FOR ALL FOREIGN STUDENTS IN KEY CATEGORIES OF SKILLS

13. CONCLUSION CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC LEADERSHIP RECOGNIZES STAKES
RECORD SINCE NIXON REMARKABLY GOOD REGARDING BOTH GOVERNMENTS