1. The transition of Japan’s regional policy: from Asia Pacific, East Asia to Indo-Pacific
March 21, 2018
Centre for Strategic and International Studies Indonesia
Mie Oba
Tokyo University of Science

2. Objectives in this lecture
To briefly trace the genealogy of Japan’s regional policies, especially Japan’s regional multilateral policies from the long-term perspective.
Various regional concepts and regional visions: Pacific, Asia-Pacific, East Asia, (Extended)East Asia, Indo-Pacific
To show the current state of Japan’s multi-layered regional approach
TPP11, the RCEP, and Indo-Pacific strategy
To make clear what are changes in the current Japan’s regional multilateral policies and what are the serious problems?

3. The critical issues for Japan’s regional multilateral policies
How to provide the “grand picture” for Japan and regional countries from the long-term perspectives?
How to pursue Japan’s original foreign policy beyond just following the United States? = the efforts to pursue the independent foreign policy direction
How to maintain the special relationship with the United States?
How to make regional multilateral policies compatible with the US-Japan alliance?
How to deal with China as a big neighbor country?
How to respond China which maintained one-party system while introducing market economy?
How to respond a rising China?
How to enhance good relationship with other regional and small powers in the region?
ASEAN countries, Australia, India
How to break away the” traditional” diplomacy toward Asia which heavily dependent on the bilateral ODA?

4. Pacific/Asia Pacific (1)
An Pacific-Basin Community concept
The inter-rim report of the study group of Prime Minister Masayoshi Ohira (1979)
The establishment of the Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference (Council) (PECC)
The proposal of Asia-Pacific Cooperation (APC)(1988)
The report by the study group in the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MITI)
The establishment of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)(1989)
The proposal of Asia-Pacific diplomacy (1992)
The final report of the study group set by Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa
The picture of the new direction of Japanese foreign policy toward Asia Pacific in the post-Cold war era

5. Pacific/Asia Pacific (2)
The threat perceptions and strategic interests behind these Pacific/Asia Pacific concepts
The threats
The USSR and other communist powers in the region
China: a important neighbor, not a threat but an “ambivalent” friend
Uncertain regional circumstances in the post Cold-War era (the 1990s)
The Strategic interests
To make the like-minded countries in the region
Economic interdependence and market economy
Burden-sharing to construct and sustain the stable regional order
To accelerate economic development and prosperity driven by market economy and economic assistance
The change of gravity of development in the world: “The era of Asia Pacific”

6. East Asia/Extended-East Asia (1)
The proposal of an East Asian community
The final report of the East Asian Vision Group (2001)
The linkage with the idea of the East Asian Summit
“An extended-” East Asian community concept
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s speech (Jan. 2002)
The support of the establishment of the East Asian Summit (EAS) (2005)
The proposal of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asia (CEPEA) ( )
The proposal of an East Asian community by Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama
Collaboration with China and South Korea?
Was Sino-Japan collaboration possible?

7. East Asia/Extended-East Asia (2)
The threat perceptions and strategic interests behind these East Asian/Extended-East Asian concepts
The threats
The growing concern about the rising China in the 2000s
The competition over the leadership in the East Asia
The strategic interests
To dilute China’s expanding influence with enlargement of sphere/members of “East Asia”
To make the “East Asian” grouping compatible with US-Japan alliance
To construct the “East Asia” based on universal norms/values sustaining liberal international order, like democracy, human rights, rule of law, good governance and liberal economy.
Why “universal” values and norms?

8. Indo-Pacific Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy” proposal
Foreingn Minister Kishida’s speech (Jan. 2015)
Three bridges that link Indo-Pacific: “values and sprits”, “vibrant economy” and “Open and Stable Seas”
PM. Abe’s speech in the TICAD (Aug. 2016)
Economic development and political stability in Africa, linkage between Asia and Africa for economic prosperity, and Rule-based maritime order
India-Japan Joint Statement (Nov. 2016)
“core values,” economic cooperation, security cooperation, cooperation in other various fields (eg. Capacity building, infrastructure, technology…)
Abe-Trump Joint Press Conference in Tokyo (Nov. 6, 2017)
To strengthen cooperation toward realizing the Free and One Indo-Pacific (?)
Australia-India-Japan-U.S. Consultations on the Indo-Pacific
To ensure a free and open international order based on the rule of law in Indo-Pacific
Joint Press Statement by PM Abe and PM Turnbull (Austrasia) (Jan. 2018)
Sharing a vision for the Indo-Pacific region
Japan-Sri Lanka Summit Meeting (Mar. 2018)
To further promote cooperation in the areas of maritime, security and defense, economy including infrastructure development

9. The anatomy of Japan’s “Indo-Pacific” Strategy
The extension of geographic sphere which have to be constructed as a “region”
Pacific Ocean/Indian Ocean, Asia/Africa
Three pillars
To enhance a strategic linkage among great and regional powers
Quadrilateral strategic linkage: Japan-the United States-India-Australia
Anti-China coalition?
To accelerate economic development and connectivity
Infrastructure development in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Africa
To sustain rule-based international order
Political stability based on universal values and norms in Africa
Maritime security cooperation for free, open and rule-based maritime order

10. The threat perceptions and strategic interests behind Indo-Pacific strategy
The threats
The further expansion of China’s influence
China’s assertive policy in terms of sovereignty and territorial issues
China’s proactive regional policies like Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and One Belt One Road (OBOR)
The possibility of realization of a Sino-centric regional order
The strategic interests
To “appropriately” response toward China’s rising influence
To realize economic development of prosperity and political stability in both Asia and Africa
To keep and further promote liberal international order in the huge sphere from Indian and Pacific Ocean
To respond the change of the gravity of world politics

11. Japan’s multi-layered regional approach
Three layers
Asia-Pacific: the TPP 11 (CPTPP)
The sign of Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (March 2018)
Rule-making framework for economy in the region
The “vanguard” of “Asia Pacific” regional integration
The expectation for US return to the TPP
Extended East Asia: the RCEP
To aim at realizing the “extended East Asian” economic integration
Joint Leaders’ Statement on the Negotiations for the RCEP : RCEP: A vehicle for Economic Integration and Inclusive Development (Nov. 2017)
“To assure the commitment to achieve a modern, comprehensive, high-quality and mutually beneficial economic partnership agreement”
Indo-Pacific: The Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy

12. What are changes in Japan’s regional multilateral policies?
Regional multilateral policies have been becoming more important in the whole Japan policy toward Asia as a tool to realize an “appropriate” regional order
=the maintenance of U.S. hegemonic power and principles sustaining liberal international system
To respond the rising developing countries (not only China) leading to the “horizontal relationship between japan and them.
The concern about China is becoming dominant issue shaping Japan’s regional policies
Swinging inclusive/exclusive approach
How to keep the commitment of the United States in Asia is becoming a serious matter.
The “uniqueness” of Trump administration
The decline of the United States as a long-term trend?
Any ideas/proposals emphasize the importance of “universal” norms and values
The notion that India, Australia and ASEAN countries “must be” nations sharing basic strategic interests and norms with Japan
Ex. National Security Strategy (Dec. 2013)
Ex. Abe’s proactive policy toward the ASEAN

13. The irony
Japan’s regional multilateral policies attempted/attempt to realize its “independent policy”.
Because of its serious concerns for rising China, Japan’s regional multilateral policies have been rather stressing the importance of the collaboration between the United States and Japan since the early 2000s.
However, the prospect of the U.S. commitment to Asia is becoming unclear.

14. Prospects
Multi-layered regional approach will be more important tools for Japan.
Encouraging multilateral frameworks (the TPP, RCEP, EAS. ARF, ASEAN+3 and APEC)
promoting regional vision including Indo-Pacific
The serious problems
To what extent can Japan promote more proactive political security and economic cooperation?
Ex. the mind-set and capacity of the SDF and other human resources
The budget constraint
How to envisage and accept an inclusive regionnal vision covering all of regional powers including China?
How to make a new vision responding to the “U.S. withdrawal senario”? (if its possibility is so low in the short and middle term)