1. Crop Market & Farm Policy Outlook
ISU Extension Crops Team In-Service
Ames, Iowa
Apr. 4, 2017
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
158.1
171.0
168.4
174.6
170.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,829
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,065
Beg. Stocks
821
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,320
Imports 36 32 67 55 50
Total Supply
14,686
15,479
15,401
16,940
16,435
Feed & Residual
5,040
5,280
5,120
5,550
5,450
Ethanol
5,124
5,200
5,224
5,400
Food, Seed, & Other
1,369
1,401
1,422
1,445
1,470
Exports
1,920
1,867
1,898
2,225
1,900
Total Use
13,454
13,748
13,664
14,620
14,220
Ending Stocks
2,215
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.40
3.50
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.4
89.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
47.5
48.0
52.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,307
4,250
Beg. Stocks
141 92
191
197
435
Imports 72 33 24 25
Total Supply
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,528
4,710
Crush
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,940
1,945
Seed & Residual
107
146
122
128
135
Exports
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,025
2,125
Total Use
3,478
3,862
3,944
4,093
4,205
Ending Stocks
505
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.60
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 3 3

4. Bottom: Change from last year
Corn Acreage
Top: 2016 Plantings
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

5. Bottom: Change from last year
Soybean Acreage
Top: 2016 Plantings
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

6. Drought Monitor
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 6 6

7. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. U.S. Meat Trade
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. Change in Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

10. Change in Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Corn Grind for Ethanol

12. Current Corn Futures
4.04
3.92
3.50
Source: CME Group, 4/3/2017

13. Current Soybean Futures
9.48
9.38
9.30
Source: CME Group, 4/3/2017

14. 2017/18 Crop Margins

15. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

16. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

17. Ag Policy News
No Secretary of Ag yet, Mr. Perdue has passed the Senate Ag Committee, but has yet to be voted on by the full Senate.
The House and Senate Ag Committees have begun their exploratory hearings for the 2018 Farm Bill, but no firm policy declarations have been made.
What little we have on ag policy comes from the President’s Executive Orders and the Budget.

18. Ag-Related Executive Orders
March 31, 2017
Presidential Executive Order on Establishing Enhanced Collection and Enforcement of Antidumping and Countervailing Duties and Violations of Trade and Customs Laws
Presidential Executive Order Regarding the Omnibus Report on Significant Trade Deficits
Feb. 28, 2017
Presidential Executive Order on Restoring the Rule of Law, Federalism, and Economic Growth by Reviewing the "Waters of the United States" Rule
Jan. 23, 2017
Presidential Memorandum Regarding Withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Negotiations and Agreement

19. President’s Budget Request
Source: OMB, 2017 Budget

20. President’s Budget Request
Source: OMB, 2017 Budget

21. President’s Budget Request
Source: OMB, 2017 Budget

22. President’s Budget Request
Source: OMB, 2017 Budget

23. USDA’s Budget
Source: USDA 2017 Budget

24. USDA’s Budget
Source: USDA 2017 Budget

25. USDA’s Budget
Source: USDA 2017 Budget

26. USDA’s Budget
Source: USDA 2017 Budget

27. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: