1. Confirmation
The Raven Paradox

2. Deductive vs. Inductive Arguments
A deductive argument is one in which the premises are intended to make the conclusion certain.
An inductive argument is one in which the premises are intended to make the conclusion probable (without making it certain).

3. Generalizations
A generalization is a statement of the form All Fs are G.

4. Confirmation Nicod’s Criterion:
A generalization is confirmed (to some degree) by an F that is G.
A generalization is disproved by an F that is not G.
A generalization is neither confirmed nor disproved by non-Fs that are not G or by non-Fs that are G.

5. Contrapositives
The contrapositive of All Fs are G is All non-Gs are non-Fs.
The Equivalence Confirmation Thesis: Logically equivalent statements are confirmed by the same things.

6. The Raven Paradox
A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens.
The hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens is logically equivalent to the hypothesis that all ravens are black.
If (1) and (2), then a red herring confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are black.
[So] A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are black.