1. NS4960 Spring Term 2018 Robert Looney, Ch 14 Handbook Transitions to Energy and Climate Security

2. Classic Energy Trilemma

3. U.S. Trilemma Scores

4. Country Comparisons
World Energy Council Trilemma Index 2017

5. U.S. Virtuous Trilemma I
U.S. no longer facing a hard trilemma where improvements in the environment must come at the expense of either energy security and affordable energy
Breakthroughs in shale technology have fundamentally changed the U.S. energy picture
from one of long term decline
to one of being a major energy exporter
Oil expansion increases energy security while the low carbon natural gas will be increasingly used in power generation
With this, policy makers will be faced with what might be called a virtuous trilemma
With abundant energy, economic security replaces energy affordability

6. U.S. Virtuous Trilemma II

7. U.S. Virtuous Trilemma III
Other changes from the conventional trilemma include national security as a goal that is enhanced by improvements in
Energy security
Climate security and
Economic security
National security – traditional view looks at national security largely in terms of
Military and intelligence strengths
The growth in potential advisory defense budgets
Nuclear proliferation, cyber security threats and
Rise of rogue nuclear states or state actors

8. U.S. Virtuous Trilemma IV
However broader definitions of national security are coming into the picture
The 2010 National Security Strategy includes economic instability along with climate change as security threats
Similarly the 2010 QDR draws a number of connections between climate change and conflicts, both now and increasingly in the future
In the U.S. context – rather than a series of conventional trilemma tradeoffs, the virtuous trilemma represents a series of complementarities

9. U.S. Virtuous Trilemma V Complementarities
Increased energy security enhances economic security
Improved economic security countries to climate security which in turn contributes to
Energy security
Improvements in each contributing positively to national security
These shifts from the conventional trilemma are reflective of
Not only of the shale oil and gas boom but also
A number of recently observed phenomena and empirical relationships

10. U.S. Virtuous Trilemma VI
A number of linkages in virtuous trilemma are straightforward and need no further elaboration
Improved economic security contributes directly towards funding those expenditures contributing to national security
Improved climate security leads to improved energy security through reducing the threat to the energy grid or energy facilities stemming from excessive heat or violent coastal storms
Other critical linkages are less obvious and in need for further elaboration

11. U.S. Virtuous Trilemma VII
Climate security – National Security
Pentagon integrating climate change threats into all of its “plans, operations and training”
In its 2014 Climate Adaptation Roadmap, the Pentagon details its strategic blueprint to address climate change
Climate change a “threat multiplier” that has power to exacerbate many of the challenges the US faces today including infectious diseases and terrorism
Empirical studies confirm climate’s impact on conflict
Stanford University study found that shifts from normal weather patterns likely to increase the risk of conflict
Problem most evident in Middle East and Africa
Some point to drought in Syria as a factor behind conflict
Boko Haram in Lake Chad region

12. U.S. Virtuous Trilemma IX
While can’t link climate change to violence, terrorism safe to say as water systems fail, as energy reliability vanishes these factors piled on top of misery already in play will increase the risks of conflict and wars
Increasingly situations develop where improved energy security and national security are complementary
U.S. shale boom clearly case in point
In the military area, a lessening imperative to maintain and preserve unstable regions in hostile areas
For their part US military developing a spectrum of new fuels, technologies and usage patters in strengthening their own operations thus enhancing national security

13. U.S. Virtuous Trilemma X
During the period of sanctions against Iran, increased oil supplies and lower energy prices stemming from the US shale boom aided US efforts to finalize a comprehensive nuclear treaty with that country
The shale boom and the likelihood of increased gas exports likely contributed to the U.S. ability to form a coalition of Asian nations willing to form a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a key element in the US efforts to assure a peaceful Pacific Basin.

14. U.S. Virtuous Trilemma IX
Energy Security – Economic Security
Increased energy security stemming from the shale oil and gas boom will also have some clear benefits through assuring improved economic security
Sudden spikes in energy prices have been associated with nearly all of the post-WWII recessions
At other times, rapid increases in energy prices have had a retarding effect on economic growth and job creation
Households left with less to depend on goods and services in general causing slack in the economy resulting in declines in productive investment

15. U.S. Virtuous Trilemma X
Before the shale boom energy prices were increasingly variable
This variability often created a vicious circle whereby
energy price variability increased uncertainty about future energy prices
which in turn deterred investments in conventional types of energy
With lower future supplies, sharp increases in oil prices occurred when economic growth picked up
Because oil supplies can be increased quickly and incrementally from shale there is a dampening effect on prices not possible from conventional oil
In effect this property of shale means the United States may replace Saudi Arabia as the world’s swing producer.