1. Yellow Cards: Do they Matter?
Kurt W Rotthoff
and
Anne Anders

2. Data Bundesliga (top German football League)
Fall 2004 – Spring 2009 (5 seasons)
Yellow Cards, Yellow to Red, Red, Fouls, Corner Kicks, Offside, Shots and Goals
Win, Tie, Lose
Ranks (top 5 at the end of last season)

3. Basic Findings
Receiving a Yellow or Red card decrease the probability of winning.
Fouls are significant and positive – aggressive play is valuable, pushing too hard is detrimental.
The probability changes are different for the home and away teams.

4. Equation This is run (individually) for:
Probit - Home team Win (1) (0 otherwise)
Ordered Probit – Home team Win (2)
Tie (1)
Away Win (0)

5. HWin 0.459 (there is a home field bias)
Tie
AWin 0.282

8. This is the part where you give your thoughts on the paper.
It’s my paper, so I’m biased.