1. RSA Insight Report: Supporting Slides
Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal
comprising East Lothian, Edinburgh City, Fife, Midlothian, Scottish Borders and West Lothian
Evidence Base Team
Glasgow

2. Contents Explanation of Thermometer Chart
1. The Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by City Deal Region 2015
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA Local Authority 2015
Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base (2016)
Proportions of Businesses by Size Band (2016)
Business Births and Deaths per ( ) and Business survival index ( )
Resident and Workplace Based Earnings 2016 (Median)
Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal’s local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1)
Deprivation Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal by SIMD (2016) Deciles1 1-10
Population projections change by age band 2014 – 2039
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Region
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority
School Leaver Destinations 2009/10 and 2015/16

3. 2. Demand for Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal
Total Employment Projections (jobs) ( )
Total Employment (jobs) Projections by Status and Gender
Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal Occupation Structure 2000 and 2017 (people 000s)
Total employment (people 000s) by occupation 2017 and 2027
Proportion of occupations at top middle and bottom of labour market 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (people 000s) Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal
Proportion of total requirement at top middle and bottom of labour market
Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector 2017 and 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs 000s) Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal
Total employment (jobs 000s) by key sector 2017 and 2027
Total Employment by qualification (000s) Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal 2017 and 2027
Total Requirement by qualification (people 000s) Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal

4. Explanation of thermometer/bullet chart
Although most people are familiar with a grouped bar chart:...
... a thermometer (or bullet) chart shows both bars in one, enabling more space to be used, which is more practical when dealing with more cluttered charts, showing 2 digit SIC and SOC for example.
The figures are the ‘thermometer’ and the 2027 figures act as the ‘mercury’. This enables a comparison to be made as to whether there has been a rise or fall compared with the 2017 baseline. And example is given below:
2027 figures less than 2017
2016 figure
2017
2024 figure
2027 figures more than 2017
2027

5. 1. The Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal

6. Figure 2.1: Distribution of GVA (£million, constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by City Deal Region, 2015
High GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, Low Productivity
High GVA, Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

7. Figure 2.2: Distribution of GVA (£million, constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA Local Authority, 2015
High GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, Low Productivity
High GVA, Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

8. Table 2.1: Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base, (2016)
Edinburgh and SES
East Lothian
Edinburgh, City of
Fife
Midlothian
Scottish Borders
West Lothian
Scotland
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 6%
10% 1% 7% 5%
24% 3%
Production
Construction
12% 8%
15%
11%
Motor trades 2% 4%
Wholesale
Retail 9%
Transport & storage
Accommodation & food services
Information & communication
13%
Financial & insurance
Property
Professional, scientific & technical
19%
17%
18%
16%
Business admin & support
Public admin. & defence
<1% 0%
Education
Health
Arts, entertainment, recreation, other
Total
42,120
3,065
18,075
9,215
2,270
5,035
4,460
171,905
Source: UK Business Counts

9. Table 2.2: Proportions of businesses by size band, 2016
East Lothian
Edinburgh City
Fife
Midlothian
Scottish Borders
West Lothian
Edinburgh and SES City Deal
Scotland
0-9
89%
87%
88%
86%
90%
10-49
10%
13% 8%
50-249 1% 2%
250+
<1%
Source: UK Business Counts

10. Figure 2.3 Business births and deaths per 10,000 population ( ) and Business Survival Index ( )
Recession
(2008-9)
Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-Year Population Estimates
Note: data for Business Survival Rates only available for in Evidence Base.

11. Table 2.3: Resident and workplace based earnings, 2016 (Median)
Area
Resident Earnings
Workplace Earnings
Difference between weekly workplace and resident earnings
East Lothian
£425
£393
£32
Edinburgh, City of
£470
£480
-£10
Fife
£426
£33
Midlothian
£428
£475
-£48
Scottish Borders
£397
£364
West Lothian
£422 £0
Scottish Average
£434
£432 £2
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Figures based on weekly pay of all workers.

12. Table 2.4: Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal’s local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1)
SOC 1-3
SOC 4-6
SOC 7-9
East Lothian
48%
31%
22%
Edinburgh City
65%
18%
17%
Fife
54%
25%
21%
Midlothian
41%
35%
24%
Scottish Borders
64%
14%
West Lothian
50%
27%
Source: Origin Destination statistics by Local Authority, open access (WB07BUK_la), UK Data Service
Note: denominator = total trips out of the local authority
1 See SOC Codes for Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal here:

13. Figure 2.4: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity, by City Deal Region
High Unemployment, High Inactivity
Low Unemployment, High Inactivity
High Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based)
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

14. Figure 2.5: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity, by Local Authority
High Unemployment, High Inactivity
Low Unemployment, High Inactivity
Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity
High Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based)
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

15. Figure 2.6: Deprivation in Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal by SIMD (2016) Deciles2 1-10
Source: Scottish Government, 2016
2 See SIMD interactive map here:

16. Table 2.5: Population projections change by age band, 2014 – 2039
0 -15
16-29
30-49
50-64
65-74
75+
Total
Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal 8%
-1% 4% 3%
35%
95%
13%
East Lothian
12% 2% 6% 1%
42%
104%
18%
Edinburgh City
16%
17%
24%
47%
83%
21%
Fife
-3%
-8%
-12%
22%
91% 5%
Midlothian
25%
11%
34%
106%
26%
Scottish Borders 0%
-7%
-16%
-20%
89%
West Lothian
-2%
-4%
45%
131% 9%
Scotland
-6%
27%
85% 7%
Source: National Records of Scotland.

17. Table 2.6: School Leavers’ Destinations 2009/10 and 2015/16
Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal
City of Edinburgh
East Lothian
Fife
Midlothian
Scottish Borders
West Lothian
Higher education (%)
2009/10
32%
35%
31%
28%
34%
30%
2015/16
36%
37%
29%
38%
Change 3% 2% 5% 1% 0% 8%
Further education (%)
27%
23%
22%
24%
25%
16%
26%
21%
20%
-4%
-1%
-6%
-3%
-5%
Employment (%)
17%
39%
12%
10% 7%
Unemployed (%)
15%
13%
11%
-8%
-9%
Unemployment Seeking and Unemployment Not Seeking.
Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset

18. 2. Demand for Skills in the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal

19. Figure 3.1: Total Employment Projections (jobs), 2000-2027
Source: Oxford Economics

20. Figure 3.2: Total Employment (jobs) projections, 2000-2027 by status and gender  
Source: Oxford Economics

21. Figure 3.3: Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal Occupational Structure, and 2017 (people 000s)
Source: Oxford Economics

22. Figure 3.4: Total employment (people, 000s) by occupation, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

23. Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal Regional Deal
Table 3.1: Proportion of occupations at top, middle and bottom of labour market, 2027
Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal Regional Deal
City of Edinburgh
East Lothian
Fife
Midlothian
Scottish Borders
West Lothian
Higher level jobs
48%
55%
44%
38%
39%
41%
40%
Middle level jobs
28%
25%
37%
33%
34%
32%
24%
Lower level jobs
20%
29%
26%
35%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

24. Table 3.2: Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (people, 000s) Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal
Occupation
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Managers, directors & senior officials
2.4
17.1
19.4
Professional occupations
11.1
85.8
96.9
Associate professional & technical occupations
5.4
28.8
34.2
Administrative & secretarial occupations
1.4
23.0
24.4
Skilled trades occupations
3.2
23.4
26.6
Caring, leisure & other service occupations
4.2
18.1
22.3
Sales & customer service occupations
2.5
31.5
34.0
Process, plant & machine operatives
0.3
8.7
8.9
Elementary occupations
4.6
49.2
53.8
Total
35.1
285.4
320.5
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data.

25. Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal
Table 3.3: Proportion of total requirement at top, middle and bottom of labour market,
Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal
City of Edinburgh
East Lothian
Fife
Midlothian
Scottish Borders
West Lothian
Higher Level Jobs
47%
54%
35%
37%
38%
39%
Middle level jobs
23%
22%
28%
25%
30%
24%
19%
Lower level jobs
42%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

26. Figure 3.5: Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

27. Table 3.4: Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal,
Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
-0.5
10.5
10.0
Mining and quarrying
-0.2
0.2
0.0
Manufacturing
-5.3
10.2
4.9
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning
-0.6
1.3
0.7
Water supply, sewerage, waste management
-0.3
5.0
4.7
Construction
6.0
14.8
20.7
Wholesale and retail trade
7.4
67.5
74.9
Transport and storage
1.9
23.2
25.1
Accommodation and food services
6.3
34.3
40.6
Information and communication
2.3
1.2
3.6
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
0.8
Professional, scientific and technical
10.7
0.1
10.9
Admin. and support services
8.4
34.2
42.6
Public admin. and defence
-3.5
20.2
16.7
Education
1.8
27.7
29.5
Human health and social work
6.7
32.2
38.8
Arts, entertainment and recreation
3.4
18.2
21.6
Other service activities
2.5
2.6
Total
47.3
302.7
350.0
Source: Oxford Economics

28. Figure 3.6: Total employment (jobs, 000s), by key sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

29. Table 3.5 Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal,
Key Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Chemical sciences
-0.07
0.1
Creative industries
2.06
4.3
6.3
Construction
5.2
10.5
15.7
Energy
-0.2
1.9
1.8
Engineering
0.9
2.7
3.6
Food and drink
-0.4
2.2
Financial and business services
6.2
11.7
17.8
Health and social care
4.1
27.3
31.4
ICT/digital
1.1
0.7
Life sciences
0.3
Tourism
23.8
27.4
Total
22.7
85.3
108.0
Source: Oxford Economics

30. Figure 3.7: Employment by qualification (people, 000s), Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

31. Table 3.6: Total Requirement by qualification (people, 000s), Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal,
Qualification
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
SCQF 11-12
6.9
18.0
24.9
SCQF 7-10
23.0
132.5
155.4
SCQF 6
0.4
37.9
38.3
SCQF 5
4.3
61.4
65.6
SCQF 1-4
-0.4
13.2
12.7
No Qualifications
1.0
22.5
23.5
Total
35.1
285.4
320.5
Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Figures for 2027 only