1. Foundations for a Best in Midwest Strategy
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2. State Economic Agency Comparison1.
Economic Analysis 2.
State Economic Agency Comparison 3.
DED Organizational Assessment 4.
Strategy Recommendations 5.
Performance Management Support
10-15 Year Economic Projections
Labor Supply & Demand Analysis
Industry Specific Deep Dives
Pilot and Implementation

3. Design Principles
We all agree on why we need to reset our approach to economic and workforce development – because the status quo isn’t working any more.
Before we create tactics of what we’ll do, we need to consider how we’ll do it.
Over the next few hours, we’ll discuss some potentially opposing concepts. They don’t have to be mutually exclusive, but we need to explore them.
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4. Overarching statewide strategy or region specific strategies
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5. Accelerating urbanization
Missouri Regional Employment and Wages – 2016 to 2017 Change
Accelerating urbanization
Across the United States
urban regions are growing fastest
Missouri from 2010 to 2017
▲3.2%
Metro county population change
▼1.1%
Non-metro county population change
Source: MERIC analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census of Employment and Wages
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6. The ratio of retirees to workers is increasing
2017 Retirees to Working Age Ratio
Number of residents age 65+ per 100 residents age 18-64
Retirees to working age Americans
Canada and Germany even older (40, 44) by 2025
Source: Wall Street Journal Analysis of U.S. Census population figures, published June 21, 2018
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7. Large or small, our economies are connected
Change in Daytime Population
Most counties lose daytime population as workers commute
Source: MERIC analysis of U.S. Census ACS commuting data
of Missouri counties lose daytime population as workers commute
Branson
Kirksville
Sedalia
Cape Girardeau
Lake Ozark
Sikeston
Chillicothe
Lebanon
Springfield
Columbia
Maryville
St. Charles
Hannibal
Moberly
St. Joseph
Jefferson City
Nevada
St. Louis
Joplin
Poplar Bluff
West Plains
Kansas City
Rolla
73%
Towns and cities across Missouri are focal points of regional trade:
Canada and Germany even older (40, 44) by 2025
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8. Overarching statewide strategy or region specific strategies
Accelerating urbanization
Climate & resource scarcity
Demographic changes
Shift in global economic power
Technological breakthroughs
Overarching statewide strategy or region specific strategies
Region specific strategies
Regions and towns are tied to metro areas, but trends hinder our traditional strengths
Link growth in both metro and rural areas
Customize our approach and use resources differently based on local needs
Overarching statewide strategy
Metro areas and professional services are dominating growth
Productivity, mobility and talent matter most
Focus our resources on high-growth business needs
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9. Focus on targeted industries or be industry agnostic
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10. We are America – diversified with strong “coastal” economies
St. Louis
$160 billion
2016 Metro GRP
7th
Most Diversified Economy
Missouri has a broad portfolio
of large industries
Two-Thirds
of our GSP is in St. Louis & Kansas City
Like the United States, Missouri has huge east and west coast economies
Northwest
Northeast
$9 billion
$7 billion
Kansas City
$58 bn
St. Louis
$116 bn
Kansas City
$129 billion
2016 Metro GRP
West Central
Central
$7 billion
$24 billion
Southeast
Ozark
Southwest
South Central
$11 billion
$18 billion
$9 billion
$5 billion
GRP (billions) values shown in green bubbles are regional product within Missouri only WDA region
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11. We are America – our workforce mirrors the United States
Source: MERIC analysis of BLS Occupational Employment and Wages, 2015
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12. We are the Midwest Selected Midwest Strengths Aerospace & Defense
Automotive
Transportation & Logistics
Agribusiness
Energy Solutions
Life Sciences
Manufacturing Concentrations
Agribusiness Concentrations
Our diversity makes it hard to stand out
Life Science Concentrations
Source: PwC Preliminary Cluster Analysis. Location Quotient (LQ). LQ of 2 means state is twice as concentrated as nation in a cluster.
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13. Focus on targeted industries or be industry agnostic
Employ broad business climate improvements, infrastructure and talent strategies that will stimulate job growth regardless of the industry.
Focus on targeted industries
Direct specific training, incentives, and marketing to grow industries that will have a multiplier effect.
Agribusiness
Aerospace & Defense
Automotive
Energy Solutions
Financial Services
Transportation & Logistics
Information Technology
Life Sciences
Industrial Engineering
Extractives
Healthcare
Entertainment & Media
Bold Clusters have been our targeted sectors since 2000.
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14. Raise education generally or train for specific occupations
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15. Raising education levels helps regional economies
1 more year of schooling among metro area employed
▲10.5% GDP
▲8.4% real wages
Source: A Matter of Degrees, Milken Institute, 2013
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16. Missouri businesses have concerns
52%
of St. Louis businesses say the Shortage of Skilled Workers is the Biggest Barrier to expanding employment for the third year in a row
Source: St. Louis Community College State of the Workforce 2017 Survey
42%
of Missouri business owners say Colleges prepare students for the workforce
15%
of Missouri business owners say High Schools prepare students for the workforce
Graph colors
Source: Missouri Chamber 2030 Business Survey
Sources: Missouri Chamber 2030 Survey at and St. Louis Community College report at:
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17. Missouri service sector jobs are growing fastest
2006 – 2016 Employment
Growth Rates
History
2016 – 2026 Projected
Growth Rates
Future
Goods Producers Manufacturing, Construction, Mining
▼15%
▲2.5%
Services Trade, Transportation, Finance,
Professional Services, Healthcare, etc.
▲7%
▲8.7%
Government Federal, State, and Local
▼1%
▲1%
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics for figures. MERIC employment projections for estimates.
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18. Middle-skilled workers are needed everywhere
Requires training or education beyond high school but less than 4-year degree
Middle-Skill :
Source: St. Louis Community College State of the Workforce 2017 Survey
4 out of 7
Functional business areas need middle-skills to meet skill shortages in St. Louis
High-Skill
Middle-Skill
Low-Skill
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19. Raise education generally or train for specific occupations
We’re competing with increasingly educated economies
Business surveys show critical thinking, communications, and problem-solving skills are in demand
Use resources broadly to raise education quality, levels, talent attraction and retention
Train for specific occupations
Business surveys show STEM and STEM-Skills are in demand
Specific jobs are needed (healthcare, business, technology) but there are few applicants
Target resources on developing and deploying in-demand, skilled job training
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20. Maximize economic growth or maximize social impact
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21. Manufacturing job growth is slower than GDP growth
Missouri Manufacturing GDP and Employment Growth
Missouri Manufacturing Productivity
▲13% GDP ▲4% jobs
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22. Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Occupations
High-demand jobs are in the service sector and range broadly in skill level
Missouri’s fastest growing jobs through 2026 Forecasted to increase by more than 10%
High Skill
Low Skill
Middle
Skill
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Occupations
Computer & Math Occupations
Life, Physical, & Social Science Occupations
Healthcare Support Occupations
Construction Occupations
Personal Care Occupations
Sources: MERIC employment projections for estimates.
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23. Social impact measures are harder to track than economic indicators
Wages Differ by Region
Welder
2016 Average Annual Pay
April 2018 Unemployment Rates
Southeast region often highest
$43K in Kansas City
$34K in Northeast Region
$31K in South Central Region
It’s difficult to get timely and detailed information on social impacts:
Crime Rates, Housing Costs, Poverty, Impact on Diverse Populations, etc.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics for Occupational Wages and Unemployment Rates.
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24. Maximize economic growth or maximize social impact
Gross State Product and GSP Per Capita are top measures of wealth but don’t necessarily equate to job growth
It’s difficult to define a quality job
Other macro measures should be considered
Maximize social impact
Simply counting jobs created does not capture wages and benefits
Statewide measures may not suffice when regions are so diverse
It’s difficult to get timely and detailed information
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25. It’s time to work
During the breakout session, you’ll be asked to explore one side of the topics we just discussed.
Later today, we’ll synthesize the discussions, and, through interactive technology, we’ll respond to all the positions.
Before we adjourn, we’ll consider other design principles and establish a baseline to create our plans.
These breakout sessions will shape our economic and workforce plans. This is real.
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26. Breakout Sessions On your badge, find your assigned group and room.
In your room, you’ll have a packet of materials and a facilitator to help structure your conversation.
After your breakout session, grab lunch and enjoy further conversation in the atrium.
Return to this room by 12:30 p.m. to discuss your group’s work.
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