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Gerdau March 2007
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Highlights One of the world’s lowest cost steel companies
Strong cost position as a result of diversified production processes and multiple raw material sourcing Strong foreign currency generation Large export base International subsidiaries Ranked 14th globally by steel output for year 2005 with an output of 13.7m tons Largest long steel producer in the Americas 2nd largest long steel producer in North America 32 mills, integrated and mini mills, with state of the art technology Relevant market share and diversified product range through downstream and service centers Strong balance sheet, low leverage and strong cash generation Gerdau S.A. shares are listed on the São Paulo, New York and Madrid Stock Exchanges
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Operating and Financial Highlights
Agenda Industry Overview Group Overview Operating and Financial Highlights All data presented in US Dollar and in metric tons, except when indicated
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World Production WORLD CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION
In million tonnes Production reached more than 1,2 billion tonnes in 2006. 1,217 1,120 8.7% 2005 2006 EVOLUTION OF WORLD CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION World China 2º Oil Shock Accelerated increase of China 1º Oil Shock USSR breakup Corresponds to 70% of the world production growth from 2001 to 2006 Source: IISI / IISI apud IBS
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World Demand FINISHED STEEL APPARENT DEMAND
In million tonnes The world steel demand should increase 4.2% p.a. from 2010 to 2015. 1,179 1,121 5.2% 1,029 8.9% China NAFTA Japan India South America FINISHED STEEL APPARENT DEMAND PER CAPITA (KG) With increasing investments in infrastructure and civil construction, India should have grown 10% in 2006. Steel consumption in South America should have increased 12% in 2006. Chinese steel consumption should experience a more moderate growth in 2007. 344 NAFTA 322 295 China 205 World 195 171 Brazil 110 102 e: estimated Source: IISI
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Brazil and the Global Steel Industry
Crude Steel Production – 2006 In million tons In million tonnes Total World Production: 1.2 billion tonnes China represented 34.4% of the global steel production Brazil represented 2.5% of the global steel production 419 116 98 71 48 47 44 41 32 31 South Korea China Japan USA Russia Germany India Ukraine Italy Brazil Source: IISI
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Operating and Financial Highlights
Agenda Industry Overview Group Overview Operating and Financial Highlights All data presented in US Dollar and in metric tons, except when indicated
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100+ Years in Business 1901 THE 80’s THROUGH THE 40’s THE 50’s
1901 – First operation: nail factory Acquisition of three mills (Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and Bahia) Construction of two new plants (Paraná and Ceará) Operations abroad begin (Uruguay and Canada) THROUGH THE 40’s First steel mill acquisition – Siderúrgica Riograndense (1948) THE 50’s THE 90’s Expansion of Siderúrgica Riograndense Construction of second Riograndense’s mill Diversification into specialty steel – acquisition of Piratini Expansion abroad – acquisition of mills in Chile, Canada, Argentina and the USA Acquisition of second mill in Minas Gerais and rolling mill in São Paulo Shareholdings restructuring Acquisition of stake in Açominas THE 60’s Market share increase by the: - Diversification and verticalization of product line - Structuring of distribution network (today more than 70 sales points) - Acquisition of mill in Pernambuco THE NEW MILLENNIUM THE 70’s Acquisition of four companies in the US Acquisition of downstream units and fab shops in North America Entering the European market Construction of a steel mill in São Paulo Capacity expansion with acquisition of two mills (Alagoas and Paraná); construction of largest Gerdau mill (Rio de Janeiro) Diversification into reforestation
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An International Company
CANADA Total Capacity (Includes Strategic Shareholdings) 19.2 million tonnes of crude steel 17.0 million tonnes of rolled steel products Brazil 9.2 million tonnes of crude steel 6.3 million tonnes of rolled steel products 11 steel mills 12 fabrication shops 6 downstream operations 74 sales points and flat steel service centers Abroad 10.0 million tonnes of crude steel 10.7 million tonnes of rolled steel products 21 steel mills 44 fabrication shops 17 downstream operations 2 strategic shareholdings
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Solid Track Record 21,605 TOTAL INVESTED (1981 - 2006):
In thousand tonnes 21,605 TOTAL INVESTED ( ): Brazil = US$ 5.2 billion + Debt North America = US$ 2.0 billion + Debt South America = US$ 654 million + Debt Europe = US$ 380 million + Debt Installed Capacity Expansion 19,230 Araçariguama (Brazil) Sidenor (Spain) Sheffield (USA) Siderperú (Peru) GSB (Spain) 7,696 16,372 CAGR : 15% p.a. Ameristeel (USA) AZA New Plant (Chile) Additional stake in Açominas (Brazil) North Star (USA) 11,076 Control of Açominas (Brazil) Co-Steel (USA) 3,072 16,709 Diaco (Colombia) Cambridge (Canada) Usiba (Brazil) 3,934 4,568 Piratini (Brazil) AZA (Chile) 4,595 Stake in Açominas (Brazil) Manitoba (Canada) 2,611 1,757 Barão de Cocais (Brazil) Laisa (Uruguay) 2009e Brazil – Installed Capacity of Crude Steel Abroad – Installed capacity of Crude Steel e: estimated Besides the mills acquired, as related above, Gerdau acquired many fab shops in order to add value to its products and offer services and products to its clients according to their needs.
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Among the Leaders Crude Steel – Output 2005 14 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6
In million tonnes Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 Gerdau should have an installed capacity of 21.6 million tonnes of crude steel per year after the investment program in Brazil is completed in 2009. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 GERDAU GROUP (BRA) Source: Metal Bulletin
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Growth portfolio (CAGR 2001-2005) benchmarked against industry average
Value Builder Company ATKearney study Growth portfolio (CAGR ) benchmarked against industry average Revenue Growth 70% Eregli Demir Celik 60% Mittal Severstal Baoshan Angang Bluescope 03 05 50% Maanshan Iron Steel Ipsco Steel Dynamics Gerdau Nucor 40% Novolipetsk1) Acerinox Tata Steel 30% Usinas Industry Average Voestalpine Onesteel Tokyo Steel Cap 20% US Steel Boehler-Uddeholm SSAB Salzgitter SAIL Oregon Steel Mills Hylsamex 10% Hyundai Steel JFE 03 05 Rautaruukki Corus Imsa Neomax 0% Arcelor 02 05 Worthington Nisshin Steel AK Steel Thyssenkrupp1) Sumitomo Nippon Steel Carpenter Technology -10% -40% 10% Industry Average 60% 110% Equity Value Growth Notes: 1) EBIT-growth Notes: USINAS = USIMINAS; ARCELOR Takeover MITTAL/ SERVERSTAAL: The market capitilization of Severstaal is 6.8 bn USD (same as revenue, hence valued above the industry multiple of 0,79) Source: Thyssenkrupp: steel segment
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Shipments In thousand tonnes 100% increase in the last 6 years 14,819 13,550 12,560 12,144 South America (10% in 2006) 9,109 North America (45% in 2006) 7,411 Brazil – Exports (16% in 2006) Brazil – Domestic Market (27% in 2006) Europe (2% in 2006) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Billets, blooms & slabs Merchant bars Rebars Fabricated steel Heavy structural shapes Wire-rod Wires Nails
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Markets BRAZIL - 2005 COUNTRY MARKET SHARE MAIN COMPETITORS Gerdau 48%
Arcelor Brasil 36% Gerdau 48% Other 5% Barra Mansa 5% V&M do Brasil 6% COUNTRY MARKET SHARE MAIN COMPETITORS NORTH AMERICA 15% Nucor + ArcelorMittal + CMC CHILE 51% CAP + Imports URUGUAY 84% Imports ARGENTINA 20% Acindar + Bragado + Zapla COLOMBIA 37% Acerias Paz Del Rio + Imports SPAIN 43% Aceralia + Saarsthal PERU ~44% Aceros Arequipa + Imports * Specialty steel only
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Growth Opportunities LONG STEEL PRODUCTS (Brazil)
Maintenance of market share Improvement of current installed capacity São Paulo mill expansion SPECIALTY STEEL Active role in the steel sector consolidation process Search for new opportunities AÇOMINAS (Ouro Branco mill) New 1.5 MM ton blast furnace Growth platform for slabs, blooms and billets LATIN AMERICA Maintenance of leadership in the long steel sector New markets NORTH AMERICA Efficiency and productivity gains (Gaps) Enhancement of leadership in the long steel sector through acquisitions
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Outlook Brazil North America South America Europe
Growing volumes in the domestic market: 6 to 8% in 2007 Industrial and residential construction sectors revving up Recovery of agricultural sector Prices in reais stable Costs relatively stable North America Demand remains strong for rebars, merchant bars and profiles Imports falling Increase in supply of higher value added products South America Strong growth in the economy Civil construction sector strengthening Increase in public investments Demand in line with economic growth Europe Demand continues strong Price increases Specialty steel sector performing well Growing market share The 4th quarter in Brazil shouldn’t be as good as that of the 3rd quarter, nonetheless still a good quarter. The increase in sales through September reached 13%, compared to the same period in The expectation is that the year will close with an 11 to 12% increase. This growth is strongly influenced by the civil construction sector which should grow 18% in housing, commercial and industrial buildings are up. Investments in infrastructure, however, are still slow due to the lack of projects and government funding. The PPPs are still an expectation. The industrial sector should present a 7% growth in 2006, with the machinery and agricultural equipment sectors presenting a reassuring pace of growth. Long steel inventories at distribution centers are at normal levels. In North America the expectation is that the good performance and fundamentals of the market should prevail although the 4th quarter is traditionally a weaker quarter. There is cautious optimism with regards to 2007, although it should be a good year. In the short term we could see a slight weakening of demand and the industry ought to compensate with discipline its levels of output and reduction of inventories. The high volume of imports continues to pose the most serious threat to the sustainability of margins. In the long term and in this particular issue, the role played by China is pivotal for the reasons we all know. Gerdau has enhanced its focus on higher value added products by acquiring downstream units such as is the case of the joint venture we just talked about. In South America we expect to see the prevailing good conditions throughout the ensuing quarters. In this scenario, we are investing in the recently acquired mills to enhance their productivity and to obtain the benefits resulting form current market conditions. In specialty steels in Europe, the market remains demanding and a good 2007 is expected. Some improvements are forecast for our operations in the region which include a new continuous bloom casting to increase the product line. We also expect to conclude this process to acquire GSB by the end of the year.
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Operating and Financial Highlights
Agenda Industry Overview Group Overview Operating and Financial Highlights All data presented in US Dollar and in metric tons, except when indicated
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NET SALES BREAKDOWN BY REGION EXPORTS BY REGION (IN TONNES)
2006 Domestic Market 78% NET SALES BREAKDOWN BY REGION Europe 3% South America 10% North America 46% Brazil 41% Exports 22% (37% in tonnes) EXPORTS BY REGION (IN TONNES) Central America 15% North America 16% Africa 9% Europe 8% South America 29% Asia 23%
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Margins Gross Margin EBITDA Margin 40% Consolidated 36% Brazil 38%
North America* South America* 36% 38% 24% 24% 22% 15% 10% EBITDA Margin 38% 31% Margins reflect variations in costs and prices in the main Gerdau markets. The cost of scrap presented a slight increase in the domestic market of about US$10 per ton. The international scrap markets have abundant supplies, but prices present greater volatility. In the USA, Gerdau is capable of supplying its needs with 30% of scrap provided by its own shredders and scrap yards. This duplicates, albeit to a smaller scale, the vertical integration achieved in the Brazilian market. Where pig iron is concerned, international markets have been recovering prices and this has had an impact in the domestic market in Brazil. As a consequence the Company has limited its action to the occasional opportunity purchase. Inventories of metallic inputs in general remain in balance. As a result of increases in the price of coal, pig iron and iron ore there has been an increase in the demand for obsolescence steel scrap. Margins in the different markets reflect the structural and market conditions not always symmetrical. Gerdau’s geographical diversification on the other hand is a key component for greater sustainability of the consolidated margin as shown in the following charts. 28% 21% 19% 15% 13% 10% * Calculated by hard currency
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Consolidated Financials
In US$ million 2004 2005 2006 Balance Sheet Current assets Non-current assets Total Assets Current liabilities Non-current liabilities Minority Interest Shareholders’ equity Total Liabilities and Shareholder’s equity Total debt Cash & Equivalents Net debt 3,600 3,431 7,031 1,977 2,186 580 2,288 2,402 769 1,633 5,182 4,165 9,347 1,790 3,225 896 3,436 3,269 2,335 934 6,573 6,022 12,595 2,570 4,070 1,294 4,661 4,240 2,791 1,449 Income Statement Net revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income EBITDA 7,383 2,353 1,678 1,219 2,092 9,148 2,517 1,727 1,387 2,169 10,999 3,038 2,055 1,633 2,502 36% 1.1x 0.8x 18% 1.5x 0.4x 20% 1.7x 0.6x Ratios Net debt / Total capitalization Total debt / EBITDA Net debt / EBITDA
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DEBT AVERAGE LIFE: 9 years and 2 months
Consolidated Debt Profile December 2006 US$ MM GROSS DEBT 4,240 100% SHORT TERM 917 22% Domestic Currency 235 6% Foreign Currency 270 Companies Abroad 412 10% LONG TERM 3,323 78% 940 1,723 40% 660 16% CASH & CASH AND EQUIV. 2,791 1,773 64% 1,018 36% NET DEBT 1,449 COST OF DEBT (per annum) In US$ Brazil Domestic Currency 22.8% Foreign Currency 7.3% Companies Abroad 8.0% DEBT AVERAGE LIFE: 9 years and 2 months DEBT STRUCTURE Companies Abroad 26% Foreign Currency 46% Domestic Currency 28%
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Consolidated Debt Amortization
In US$ million – Dec./06 FINIMP: 90 Perpetual Bond: 600 Debentures: 115 FINIMP: 196 BNDES: 134 Companies Abroad: 401 Debentures: 111 FINIMP: 82 Companies Abroad: 207 FINIMP: 147 Pre-export: 118 875 Companies Abroad: 176 730 BNDES: 112 FINIMP: 109 Companies abroad: 201 665 Working Capital: 99 FINIMP: 24 Debentures: 110 447 BNDES: 55 330 278 300 227 165 141 82 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 After 2013 SHORT TERM: US$ 917 LONG TERM: US$ 3,323
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Investment Plan INSTALLED CAPACITY EVOLUTION Crude Steel
INVESTMENT PLAN 2007 – 2009: US$ 4.0 billion ACTUAL 2006* In million US$ In million US$ BRAZIL 694.4 ABROAD 1,308.2 North America 537.6 South America 255.5 Europe 515.1 TOTAL 2,002.6 2007 2008 2009 TOTAL BRAZIL 820 570 1,000 2,390 ABROAD 580 530 500 1,610 North America 260 360 315 935 South America 125 142 527 Europe 60 45 43 148 1,400 1,100 1,500 4,000 * Including acquisitions in the period. INSTALLED CAPACITY EVOLUTION In thousand metric tons Investments in the fourth quarter of 2006 totaled US$ 605 million of which half was used for acquisitions and the balance in the improvement of several industrial units and enhancing the existing capacity at other mills. CAPEX in 2006 totaled US$ 2.0 billion, and as in the fourth quarter, 50% for acquisitions and 50% for the technological update and capacity expansion, with the spotlight going to Açominas and the new mill in São Paulo. Where acquisitions are concerned, we set foot in Europe by way of Sidenor at the beginning of 2006 and GSB in December, and in Peru, with Siderperú in the second half of last year. In North America we continue to be a player in the steel sector’s consolidation process with the acquisition of Sheffield Steel and several downstream and fabrication shops as well as with steel scrap collection and processing units. For the period between 2007 through 2009 plans call for approximately US$ 4 billion in expansions and improvements in mills in Brazil and abroad. Of this total, 60% will be invested in mills in Brazil and the balance in mills abroad. Most of the investments will be made in the expansion of the integrated mill at Ouro Branco (Açominas), in which the installed capacity will go from 3 to 4.5 million metric tons. This increase in capacity should be available in the second half of 2007. Crude Steel Rolling Products + 12% 21,605 19,230 + 8% 18,435 17,040 + 10% 11,005 9,970 + 12% 11,985 Abroad Abroad 10,680 10,600 9,260 + 14% Brazil Brazil + 1% 6,360 6,450 2007 2009 2007 2009 23
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Disclaimer This document can contain statements which constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are dependent on estimates, data or methods that may be incorrect or imprecise and that may be incapable of being realized. These estimates also are subject to risk, uncertainties and suppositions and include, among other, overall economic, political and commercial environment, in Brazil and in the markets we are present in addition to government regulations, present and future. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties. The Company does not undertake, and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date made. Abro a sessão para perguntas e respostas. Como parece não haver mais perguntas, gostaria de agradecer a participação e o interesse de vocês e convidá-los para estarem conosco na próxima divulgação de resultados. Obrigado e boa tarde para todos.
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Gerdau S.A.
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