1. Impact Based Forecast and Warnings in Curacao
Watching the weather
to protect
life
and property
Albert Martis
Director

2. Early Warning System 1. Detection and Monitoring
Hazards and Risks
2. Production of Bulletins
3. Dissemination
Response or Action
4. Monitoring
Hazards, Impact and information
5. Updating the Bulletins

3. EWS Tropical Storm Tomas
Local Hazards and Impacts
Winds : no Tropical storm force Winds
Seas: Small craft advisory /high surf advisory
Rainfall: heavy rainfall ( mm local flooding)

4. Impact Tropical Storm Tomas
mm in 7h
Impact Tropical Storm Tomas

8. Warwaru (landspouts) Landspouts 1976: Curaçao 2004: Aruba 2008: Aruba
Curacao (2x)
Bonaire

9. Effectiveness EWS Understandable Reliable Timely Good coverage
Mobile telephone (> 100%)
Emergency radio
TV and website
Receiver can take responsible actions

10. 2. Types of Bulletins Daily Forecasts Special Bulletins
Tropical Cyclone Bulletins
Climate Reports

11. Type of Hazards

12. Color Code Special Bulletins

13. Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

14. Ch

15. Bulletin Engine
Automated

16. Bulletin Engine
From 15 to 3 minites

17. Impact based Forecast and Warnings (WMO no. 1150)
NMHSs produce reliable, accurate and timely warnings in support of safety of life, livelihood and property
Yet, many people still die, losses continue to rise
In part due to lack of understanding of impacts of hazards

18. Stakeholder Workshop in Curacao

19. Impact based Forecasts and Warnings
“what the weather will do, not what the weather will be”.

21. Stakeholder IBFW Fire Department Port Authority
Meteorological Department
Insurance Company
Red Cross
Disaster Management Organization
Public Works
Ministry of Traffic and Communication

24. Plan of Actions WG IBFW
Establishment of a National Working Group on Impact based Forecasts and Warnings (5,6 December 1st Meeting)
Explore funding sources for implementing impact based forecasting including through public-private partnerships
increasing the observational network (especially for waves),.

25. Terms of Reference WG IBFW
Developing a national plan and an implementation plan for impact-based forecasting, based on the “WMO Guidelines on Multi-Hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services”, including the training requirements; •
Further developing the impact-based forecasting products;
Developing a database of high impact events using hazard/impact matrices and vulnerability information;
Establishing systematic GIS hazard mapping and vulnerability data collection. MDC to establish partnerships with relevant Departments for mapping of hazards and vulnerability, and modelling of detailed risk maps (based on hazard maps and vulnerability maps);
Organizing public education activities (taking into consideration materials already available from WMO).

26. Recommendation
Production of Bulletins (reducing production time) - Forecast/ Nowcasting models - Forecast and Warnings Bulletins Engines Implementation Plan Impact based Forecast and Warnings