1. Indiana’s Agricultural Outlook 2010. Chris Hurt hurtc@purdue
Indiana’s Agricultural Outlook 2010? Chris Hurt Purdue University April 13, 2010
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

2. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

3. USDA: ERS Feb 11, 2010 Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

4. Adequate Old Crop Stocks Planted Acres up 2.3 Million = 88.8 Million
With Normal Yields-Adequate Inventory for /11
Lower Yields and/or stronger Usage needed to substantially Raise Prices
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

5. USDA January 2010 Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

6. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

7. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

8. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

9. Corn: USDA 4/9/10 USDA PURDUE 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Corn: USDA
4/9/10
USDA
PURDUE
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Million Bushels
Carryin
1,967
1,304
1,624
1,674
1,899
Production
10,535
13,074
12,101
13,131
13,085
Total Supply
12,515
14,398
13,739
14,814
14,999
Feed & Residual
5,600
5,974
5,254
5,450
5,490
FSI Non-Fuel
1,371
1,338
1,276
1,265
1,280
FSI Fuel (Ethanol)
2,115
3,026
3,677
4,300
4,450
Export
2,125
2,436
1,858
1,900
1,975
Total Use
11,211
12,774
12,065
12,915
13,195
Ending Stocks
1,804
US Farm Price
$3.04
$4.20
$4.06
$3.50-$3.70
$3.35-$4.15
$3.60
$3.75
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

10. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

11. BioFuels Production Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

12. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

13. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

14. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

15. July
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

16. December
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

17. Aggressive Buying by China Huge South American Crop Large World Stocks
Tight Old Crop Stocks
Aggressive Buying by China
Huge South American Crop
Large World Stocks
More U.S. Acres 647,000 to record high levels
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

18. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

19. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

20. Soybeans:USDA 4/9/10 USDA PURDUE 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Soybeans:USDA
4/9/10
USDA
PURDUE
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Million Bushels
Carryin
449
574
205
138
190
Production
3,188
2,676
2,967
3,359
3,317
Total Supply
3,647
3,260
3,185
3,512
3,517
Seed & Residual
148 93
102
147
175
Crush
1,806
1,801
1,662
1,730
1,750
Exports
1,118
1,161
1,283
1,445
1,395
Total Use
3,074
3,055
3,047
3,322
3,320
Ending Stock
197
Farm Price
$6.43
$10.10
$9.97
$9.20-$9.70
$8.25-$10.25
$9.45
$9.25
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

21. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

22. July
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

23. November
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

24. World stocks in surplus as well Much less acres in the U.S.
U.S Stocks Very High
World stocks in surplus as well
Much less acres in the U.S.
Lowest Indiana Acres on RECORD
Prices in the low $4.00 to $4.50 for Indiana
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

25. Wheat: USDA 4/9/10 USDA PURDUE 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 09/11
Wheat: USDA
4/9/10
USDA
PURDUE
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
09/11
Million Bushels
Carryin
571
456
306
657
950
Production
1,812
2,067
2,499
2,216
1,951
Total Supply
2,505
2,635
2,932
2,988
3,013
Feed & Residual
125 30
260
180
220
Other Domestic
1,015
1,035
1,000
993
1,040
Exports
909
1,264
865
890
Total Use
2,049
2,329
2,275
2,038
2,150
End Stocks
863
Farm Price
$4.26
$6.48
$6.78 $
$ $5.90
$4.90
$5.10
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

26. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

27. July
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

28. Animal Agriculture Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

29. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

30. -4% +3% -11% -8% Department of Agricultural Economics
-4% +3%
-11% -8%
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

31. Choice Steer Prices and Per Capita Supplies
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

32. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

33. Per Capita Supply & Live Hog Prices
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

34. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

35. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University
November 18
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

36. Market prices
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Choice steers, Neb. $/cwt
$85.41
$91.82
$92.27
$82.68
$93.00
Feeder steers, Ok City, $/cwt
$107.18
$108.23
$102.98
$99.20
$112.00
U.S. All Milk Price
$12.88
$19.13
$18.32
$12.81
$15.70
Choice slaughter lambs
$77.31
$84.93
$85.91
$90.50
$99.00
Barrows & gilts live/cwt.
$47.26
$47.09
$47.84
$41.24
$53.00
Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb
$64.40
$76.40
$79.70
$77.60
$82.00
Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb
$77.00
$82.10
$87.50
$79.50
$84.00
Eggs, New York, cents/doz.
$71.80
$114.40
$128.30
$103.00
$114.50
USDA: ERS
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University