1. 2017 Regional Economic Outlook
Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D.
Chief Economist

3. Population Growth, 2014-2016 2017: 1% Bonner Benewah Shoshone Lincoln
Pend Oreille
Stevens
Source: Census and author’s calculations.

4. Contribution of In-migration to Population Change, 2010-2015
Source: Census and author’s calculations.

5. Spokane and Kootenai Age Distribution, 2015
Source: Census and author’s calculations.

6. Washington Side Age Distribution, 2015
“Maturity Peaks”
“Youth Valleys”
Source: Census and author’s calculations.

7. Idaho Side Age Distribution, 2015
Source: Census and author’s calculations.

8. Decline in Productivity Growth
The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity, by Nicole Maestas, Kathleen J. Mullen, David Powell. NBER Working Paper No , July 2016
Decline in Productivity Growth
Aging Population: Share of Population 60+ Years
Lower Growth in Per Capita GDP
Decline in Employment Participation

9. Non-Farm Employment Growth, 2014-2016
2017: 1.5-2%
Source: BLS and author’s calculations.

10. Regional Average Annual Employment Growth for 22 Counties, 2010-2015
Expansion
Annual %
1.8%
0.9%
Source: BLS and author’s calculations.

11. Initial Unemployment Claims (SA), 2004-2016
2016 Unemployment Rate
Spokane
6.7%
Kootenai
4.7%
Source: WA and ID ESD and author’s calculations.

12. Spokane+Kootenai Residential Building Permits, 2014-2016
Up by 1,833 units (+50%)
Unit Growth (Share) by Type
Single, Condo, Duplex
+26% (57%)
Apartments
+98% (43%)
Source: Construction Monitor and author’s calculations.

13. Existing Home Prices, 2014-2016 2017: 4-5% 2017: 6-7%
Source: FHFA and author’s calculations.

14. Spokane Existing Home Prices: What if?
Source: FHFA and author’s calculations.

15. Kootenai Existing Home Prices: What if?
Source: FHFA and author’s calculations.

16. CPI Less Shelter, Avg. Annual Growth
U.S. Urban Rent Growth,
Period
CPI Less Shelter, Avg. Annual Growth
0.2%
Vancouver BC market: CBC interview with Professor Tom Davidoff in August (August 18, 2016) found that rental units turning over for new renters are seeing rents increase about 20% this year at lower-end rentals and 8% at the higher-end rentals.
Source: Bloomberg, The Cities Where Rent Is Rising the Fastest, October, 7, 2016.

17. Taxable Sales,
Source: WA DOR and author’s calculations.

18. Share of Motor Vehicle and Parts Sales to Total Retail Sales, 2004-2016
Source: WA DOR and author’s calculations.

19. E-Commerce and Mail Order Taxable Sales, 2004-2015
Source: WA DOR and author’s calculations.

20. Thank You