1. Who Can, Will, and Should Protect Nature?
With thanks to Kate O’Neill of UC-Berkeley for much of this lecture’s thinking

2. Who protects nature?
International cooperation is usually assumed to be answer but …
Efforts to protect the environment take several forms
Social and technological infrastructure
Governance
Regulation
Participatory activism

3. Non-state actor involvement in various types of solutions
Treaties
NGO-Governmental agreements
Business-government agreements
Corporations & corporate associations
Public-private regulatory projects
Non-governmental organizations
Networks, alliances, coalitions
Green parties
Social movements

4. NGOs Resources- formal and informal Transnational issue networks
Small staff and resources
No legal, economic or physical force
No military or physical force
No official mandate or standing
Views and norms do not reflect norms of all of global society
Information as important resource
Mostly claim moral vs. expert (scientific), legal (government), material (corporate) authority
Southern NGOs
Backlash NGOs
Transnational issue networks
Tactics

5. Multinational Corporations (MNCs)
Extremely powerful and influential in civil society
Greening of business
Exporting environmentalism (Garcia-Johnson)
Emergence in IEP
Private regimes
Identifying "markets" in which make money by protecting the environment

6. Global Civil Society Definition: Examples
"domain of associational life situated above the individual and below the state" but across state boundaries and which results "in a sense of allegiance and societal norms" that influences "the way public issues are addressed … [and as such] plays a role in governing the world polity“
Examples
Civil society as alternative to government
Governs behavior in several ways

7. Some thoughts on final paper

8. Possible Comparison #1: Members/Non-members
Members (regulated actors) to non-members (non-regulated actors),
Members vs. non-members after treaty
Treaty members before/after treaty starts

9. Possible Comparison #2: Regulated/Non-regulated Activity
Members regulated activity to members non-regulated activity
Catch of regulated yellowfin tuna vs. non-regulated bluefin tuna
Sulfur dioxide pollution vs. carbon monoxide pollution

10. Possible Comparison #3: Regulated/Non-regulated Location
Members in regulated location to members in non-regulated location
Catch of yellowfin tuna in regulated area (Indian Ocean) vs. non-regulated area (Western Pacific)
Pollution of regulated river vs. pollution of non-regulated river

11. Brief graphing overview to get final paper started

12. Pollution Example

13. Pollution Example
<<Treaty In Force

14. Pollution Example <<Treaty In Force COUNTERFACTUAL 1:
Predicted Emissions if Treaty Wasn’t Signed (using Members)

15. Pollution Example <<Treaty In Force COUNTERFACTUAL 1:
Predicted Emissions if Treaty Wasn’t Signed (using Members)

16. Pollution Example <<Treaty In Force COUNTERFACTUAL 2:
Predicted Emissions if Treaty Wasn’t Signed (using Non-Members)

17. Pollution Example <<Treaty In Force
GOAL: Emissions Level Treaty Sought to Achieve
GOAL ACHIEVEMENT
Failure relative to Goal

18. Pollution Example Treaty In Force GOAL ACHIEVEMENT
Failure relative to Goal

19. Problems of graphing data and how to resolve them

20. Data Analysis Strategies, aka: “How to Drink from a Firehose”
Determine ideal DV before looking at data
Draw expected graph by hand: years, lines included, success example
Identify best indicators you have available
Compare regulated/non-regulated behavior
Actors: Member/non-member
Regulated countries vs. non-regulated countries
Activity: Regulated/non-regulated activity
E.g., regulated chemical/species vs. unregulated chemical/species
Location: Regulated/non-regulated geographic area
E.g., catch in North Pacific vs. South Pacific

21. Simplify your data!! DON’T USE ALL THE DATA YOU HAVE!
Focus on most important indicators
Focus on 15 years before / 15 years after
Focus on countries most responsible
Create columns for regulated/non-regulated
Compare average of country groups
No more than 6 lines on one graph
Think about normalizing data across countries:
Index // percent change // per GDP // per person
Graph alternative explanations, e.g., price

22. Graphing without thinking: don’t know what you’re seeing
Goal:
See if treaties change country behavior over time
Draw what you want by hand, then graph
Country-groups, X-axis, Y-axis, expected lines
Practice makes perfect – do it by hand again!

23. Graphing everything creates spaghetti
Large countries swamp small
Too much to understand
Graph all; then delete one-by-one to learn about your data: major polluters, missing data, etc.
Create groups of different type states
Members vs. Non-members
Developed vs. Developing members
Green vs. Brown members
Other categories theory suggests
Make sure data isn’t messing you up

24. Graphing the raw data doesn’t make countries similar enough
Solution 1: Indexing
Concept: view each country’s behavior as % of its behavior in year treaty entered into force (EIF year)
Doing it: copy of rectangle, but with formula that divides each country’s data in each year by that country’s data in the EIF year
Solution 2: Normalizing
Concept: view each country’s behavior after adjusting for population, GDP, or other variables
Doing it: copy of rectangle, but with formula that divides each country’s DV by IV in each year