1. Regime Change and Revolution
Nora Genster
Andrew Tabas

2. Question
“Does a higher percentage of a county’s population living at or below the global poverty line increase the likelihood of regime change?”

3. Debate
Positive Relationship?
No Relationship?
Endogenous Dilemma

4. Higher poverty increases likelihood of regime change
Hypothesis
Higher poverty increases likelihood of regime change

5. Methodology Define poverty Define regime change Combine data
Synthesis results

6. Graph Setup Wealthy (% below poverty line <n)
Poor (% below poverty line >n)
Yes - Regime Change (1)
Quadrant 1
Quadrant 2
No Regime Change (0)
Quadrant 3
Quadrant 4

7. Evidence
Democracy and Dictatorship data
Global poverty level data

8. Take Home Points
Positive relationship between poverty and regime change?
Defining regime change and poverty
Data sets
Why does it matter?
Extension: Banks’ Conflict Index