1. PROSPECTS FOR A GLOBAL RECOVERY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR BUSINESS LEADERS
SEPTEMBER 10, 2009
PROSPECTS FOR A GLOBAL RECOVERY AND IMPLICATIONS
FOR BUSINESS LEADERS BY
Jeffrey E. Garten
Professor, Yale School of Management

2. KEY ISSUES IN GLOBAL RECOVERY
HOW STRONG IS THE RECOVERY?
HOW LONG SHOULD EXPANSIONARY POLICIES CONTINUE?
WHO WILL LEAD ECONOMIC GROWTH?
WHAT PROSPECTS FOR GLOBALIZATION AND TRADE?
WHAT ARE LONGER TERM DRIVERS OF GROWTH?
IMPLICATIONS FOR BUSINESS LEADERS

3. HOW STRONG IS THE RECOVERY?
V U W L J

4. HOW LONG SHOULD EXPANSIONARY POLICIES CONTINUE?
GROWTH-DEBT-INFLATION TRADE OFF
CHALLENGE OF SYNCHRONIZED WITHDRAWAL OF STIMULUS
GLOBAL IMPACT ON TRADE

5. WHO WILL LEAD ECONOMIC GROWTH?
THE CHALLENGE OF CONSUMPTION
U.S.?
CHINA?
ASIA?

6. WHAT PROSPECTS FOR GLOBALIZATION AND TRADE?
UNSTOPPABLE GLOBALIZATION DESPITE CRISES
NEVERTHELESS, STOP-GO PATTERN
SHORT-TERM CHALLENGES
GREEN PROTECTIONISM
HEIGHTENED RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES OF FINANCE AND SUPPLY CHAINS
ECONOMIC NATIONALISM

7. WHAT ARE LONGER TERM DRIVERS OF GROWTH?
EMERGING MARKETS
RESTRUCTURED INDUSTRIES
NEW INDUSTRIES
INFRASTRUCTURE

8. WHAT ARE LONGER TERM DRIVERS OF GROWTH
WHAT ARE LONGER TERM DRIVERS OF GROWTH? EMERGING MARKETS HOW SIGNIFICANT IN GLOBAL ECONOMY?
Population in 2000 = 6 billion
Population in 2050 = 9 billion
Incremental 3 billion will be almost entirely outside of rich countries
Source: World Bank / UN

9. WHAT ARE LONGER TERM DRIVERS OF GROWTH
WHAT ARE LONGER TERM DRIVERS OF GROWTH? EMERGING MARKETS HOW SIGNIFICANT IN GLOBAL ECONOMY?
In 2000 rich countries = 75% global GDP, rest = 25%
Today 50% of all incremental growth from developing world
In 2050 rich countries = 32% global GDP, rest = 68%
Source: World Bank

10. LONGER TERM DRIVERS OF GROWTH
THE $41 TRILLION INFRASTRUCTURE PICTURE

11. GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE
OECD Report 2006 = $70 trillion
CIBC = $35 Trillion
Sustainability, inter-connectedness, vulnerability
Hyper urbanization
Financing

12. KEY ISSUES IN GLOBAL RECOVERY
WHAT SHOULD WE BE MOST ENCOURAGED ABOUT?
WHAT SHOULD WE WORRY ABOUT?

13. KEY ISSUES FOR BUSINESS LEADERS
THE COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
IMPLICATIONS FOR LEADERS

14. THE COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
HYPERCOMPETITION AMONG RESTRUCTURED FIRMS
MAJOR ACQUISITIONS OF COMPANIES IN THE U.S. AND EUROPE
FIERCE GLOBAL COMPETITION FROM AND IN EMERGING MARKETS
INDUSTRIAL POLICIES, ESPECIALLY GREEN REVOLUTION

15. IMPLICATIONS FOR LEADERS
CONTINUOUS STRATEGIC PLANNING
EMPHASIS ON RAPID ADAPTABILITY
MORE RAPID DECISION MAKING
REDUCTION OF COMPLEXITY
COURAGE TO MAKE BIG BETS, WITH ESCAPE HATCHES

16. PROSPECTS FOR A GLOBAL RECOVERY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR BUSINESS LEADERS
SEPTEMBER 10, 2009
PROSPECTS FOR A GLOBAL RECOVERY AND IMPLICATIONS
FOR BUSINESS LEADERS BY
Jeffrey E. Garten
Professor, Yale School of Management